Because This Makes Perfect Sense

Over the last week I’ve had more than a few (to say the least) inquiries as to my decision to both abruptly halt and reconstitute my offerings going forward. Some of the discussions have been long and detailed. i.e., The other party probably thought later “All I asked for was a simple answer, I’ll think twice next time!” The others wanted all the details and got them without needing to ask. Let’s just say I can deliver either precisely what is desired or, more than anyone asked for whether they wanted it or not.

My mother would call that “charm.” Some may call it something else. But then again, nobody should cross their mother, right? I know how I am and not afraid to admit it. Or better yet, willing to warn others ahead of time. So there’s that, but I digress.

So now since I’ve also demonstrated the above in printed form, let me cut to the chase using what they call in Silicon Valley a “picture” that not only says a thousand words, but speaks volumes. To wit:

 

(Chart Source)

 

The chart on the left is the S&P 500™ over the last few days represented via 15 min candles/bars as I type this. The one opposing it is the current price chart using the same measurements of the most important and price sensitive commodity known to the world, which also is the underlying basis for the U.S. $Dollar to be used as the Reserve Currency of the world: Oil. (aka Petrodollar.)

See anything just a bit unusual? Hint: It’s utterly insane what the current markets are now doing. They are now so broken beyond repair only a fool would keep trying to argue why this, that, or the other thing was worth talking about.

But then again…

The buzzer-banger and the rest of the mainstream business/financial media continue to do just that.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Why The Shutdown Is Being Exacerbated

I was asked for my thoughts as to what was the most exacerbating issue in regards to the current shutdown of the economy. Here was my response…

Let me answer your question with a question: Give me the name of any board of directors that would allow its HR department (Human Resource) the authority to shut down a company during its most profitable sales cycle in midstream? Then, on top of that – relinquish all authority (e.g., The Board’s and C-suite) to that HR department as to when, how and if it would ever open again. All while allowing said HR to give press conferences that not only would share holder value will be damned, but any workers that complained about the lay offs were also to be considered: selfish.

It’s kind of a silly question that answers itself, no? Well that’s what the current media is selling as “prudent medically cautious measures.” Because for all intents and purposes the economy has been shut down by well meaning medical bureaucrats and lawyers. The equivalent of any well meaning HR department. i.e., risk adverse, paper pushers that still believe “Left brain – Right brain thinking” is still a thing, enabled with the power to sue if you don’t agree.

Any further questions?

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Addendum to “One For The Record”

Below is a chart of the S&P 500™ as I type this represented via 15 minute bars/candles. The reason for this update is for the possible consequences I laid out in the upcoming days, weeks or months a few weeks back.

First, today’s chart. To wit:

(Chart Source)

And here is the one I posted prior. Again, to wit:

As I asserted in the top chart, if this is the beginning, “Buckle Up!” might be an understatement.

We are now in that moment of time that we can only wait and watch.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Just A Note For Clarification

I have been inundated from friends, colleagues, listeners and more on my most recent show e.g., Monday’s. The prevailing question is “Are you closing down your site?” The answer to that is an emphatic: No!

What I am doing is revamping, retooling, reorganizing and rethinking everything when it comes to what I want to put forward from here on out, because the world of business has been dramatically altered going forward. The implications of what we are currently witnessing in both experience and sheer magnitude is profound. And there is no way to just dance around the edges to improve. What’s called for is a total reboot, which is what I’m now focused on intently.

Currently as I type this both J.P. Morgan Chase™ and Wells Fargo™ have reported their latest earnings – and they are abysmal. Loan losses have skyrocketed, loan loss provisions have been increased multiple folds. And the outlook going forward looks even worse.

And what are the “markets” currently doing? Hint: They are up another 2.5% plus.

“But wait… There’s more!!!” as they say on late night TV.

Car sales globally are near non-existent. Most companies have shut down. One would think in a sane and rationale marketplace this would be the time that fundamentals would exert themselves, you know, like sales, expenses and such. Well, that is – unless you’re Tesla™.

As I type this with the world on the brink of what many believe is an outright coming collapse for the auto industry, Tesla is up again today.

“By how much” you ask? Great question, for it wouldn’t be such a shock if it were up one or two percent. But how about over 13% to $741.00 plus. The only thing more laughable (in my view) are the current analysts defending it.

So with that said let me say this: This site is not going away nor is the broadcast. I’m just adapting to the current circumstances to offer more useful pragmatics versus the running commentary I seemed to have fallen into I find no longer useful to either of us.

So stay tuned. And for those wondering – my “One For The Record Books” viewpoint has not changed one iota. As a matter of fact – the higher this “market” goes under the current circumstances the more I stand by it.

As always, we shall see.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

 

Professorial BullSh#t

Let me start off by noting I’m sorry to anyone offended using such language on Easter Sunday. However, with that said, I’m more than confident if there’s anything I’m going to truly answer for it won’t have anything to do with the above. Let’s just leave it at that.

The reason for this latest commentary is that I just couldn’t hold it in and leave it for later, the subject matter is too deserving and fitting to the, where and why, that I am currently wrestling with in regards to both my show, as well as the website.

On my show last Friday I announced I was taking everything in a new direction. The reasoning outlined was that I regarded what I was doing as nothing more than reading, watching and listening to the myriad of mainstream financial/business news outlets, then, coming to my own outpost and distilling it into some higher “proofed” concoction. (yes, pun intended)

The issue I was trying to distinguish amidst all of the reported commentary was that it is all, repeat all – bullsh#t. The spin on everything pertaining to markets, capitalism, socialism _____________(fill in you own here) has been either spurious or down right specious. And I’m being generous in classifying, trust me.

To give you an example let me use the following screenshot of a scene where you’re suppose to “tune in” as to get some useful information as to what is currently going on in both the economy, as well as business in general. To wit:

(Image source: Screengrab YouTube™)

As many of you know ever since the above buzzer-banger both discredited, as well as disgraced his “insight” along with the network, he is still a dominant feature. Since his infamous “Bear Stearns” call I have argued not only is he nothing more than a clown show, but more to the point – probably the most dangerous clown to anyone looking for “insight” regarding their 401K. All one needs for proof of that point is to revisit what I said about his “insight” back in early March. Hint: The markets collapsed ala “Bear Stearns” style. So if you’re still following anything he says or implies as “insight?” All I’ll say is: Good luck with that, you’re gonna need it.

(Note: Don’t gloss over the above screenshot as just some reference picture. Look at the graphic he’s using to show “Best week since 1938” and the kyron text of “Breaking News: More than 16M have lost jobs…” This is where I’ll say: DUCK! Because you’re about to be caught in a maelstrom of spurious and specious bullsh#t to rival any prior.

The above is a perfect metaphor for the entirety of the mainstream business/financial media. However, that doesn’t mean the general mainstream media nor academia is pardoned by any means. Far from it. For they regurgitate or roll this type of stuff around the media landscape for all to see much like a dung beetle rolls its “precious.” The latest comes from none other than NYU Stern Professor, Scott Galloway. Or “Prof G” I assume by the “cool kids.”

I have taken issue with many of Mr. Galloway’s arguments over the years, as well as credited him for taking stands in what can only be assumed as “uncomfortable” situations. i.e., calling out “Big Tech” on stage as they are the one signing the check for the appearance.

However, as of today, I line him up more in the “buzzer-banger” category for insight rather than the virtuous, insightful, thoughtful ____________(fill in your own here) image Mr. Galloway seems to want to afford for himself. Personally, I find it all now rather repugnant, for once I finished reading his latest screed – he lost any remaining credibility in my eyes as I’ll demonstrate.

ZeroHedge™ reprinted an article he had written. As is the usual I read it and when I was finished I knew – I was finished with anything further implied as insightful commentary from him. For he demonstrates everything one needs to understand in this one article. i.e., He’s either a socialist and doesn’t know it – or won’t admit it. Both are just as damning in my view.

As is said elsewhere “Your mileage may vary” when it comes to Mr. Galloway. But my “tank” of giving these people a pass has run empty, and I’m not looking for any refills. I’m done.

Mr. Galloway starts off his article with the title “Capitalists Or Cronyism?” A topic I’m much in favor of commentary. It’s absolutely the right argument to address. Then, he opens up with a line quoting Lenin. Here’s my next line…

Well ain’t that special.

Then he goes on to extol the virtues of his aged farther, which under normal circumstances, is a a commendable act. However, we then find out how cool it is to be his age and be abusing Xanax™. I guess that’s to show all the “cool kids” that he’s still “cool, man.”

I hold no judgement on his father, I do however ask why anyone needed to know this and a few other digressions other than using these situations as a prop to appear “cool.” But I’m digressing here.

Then comes the diatribe about how he did this and then lost that. Fair points when pulled out and to stand alone for argument. But within this diatribe it shows just how ludicrous his argument for insight becomes as I’ll illustrate below.

From his article. To wit:

He took a huge risk and came to America. My mom took a similar risk, leaving her two youngest siblings in an orphanage (her mom and dad had both died in their early fifties), and bought a ticket on a steamship. She had a small suitcase and 110 quid that she hid in both socks. Why? Because they wanted to work their asses off and be rewarded for the risks they were willing to take.

This is capitalism, a beacon of hope for people who are smart, hard working, and comfortable with risk, promising a greater share of the spoils than those who are not.

However, no more.

Modern-day “capitalism” in America is to flatten the risk curve for people who already have money, by borrowing from future generations with debt-fueled bailouts for companies. We have consciously decided to reduce the downside for the wealthy, thereby limiting the upside for future generation

The above sounds quite insightful. And it is, but not in the way one may initially take it at first glance. Here’s why…

First line – last paragraph: “Modern-day ‘capitalism’ in America is to flatten the risk curve for people who already have money, by borrowing from future generations with debt-fueled bailouts for companies.”

See an issue there?

Hint: Modern Day “capitalism.” In other words, he’s trying to frame the argument that what we are now doing to the America that his parents risked life and limb to immigrate to is the problem i.e., What you’re experiencing today is “modern day capitalism” rather than what it really is: Old time socialism. Period. Which is the very thing, I would assume, that his parents were running from.

Conflating these two is what I take great issue with. For we have been running under a “cronyism” model for the last decade on steroids. One that I will argue more than helped Mr. Galloway’s investment returns during such times.

This is its final stage of that metamorphosis. e.g., Socialize the economy.

Mr. Galloway goes on in length about how in 1999 a business venture and more failed where he lost much of his wealth and more. Again, these are fair examples to argue and worthy of the initial argument about failing he professes. But then he goes on some holier than thou discussion on how his “wealthy” backers won’t apply for any of the new government money because he/they think that would be immoral.

Note to Mr. Galloway: That’s called: ethical. You know, the way businesses under the capitalist model is suppose to perform. And no one needs to know about it (used to be no one would, nor cared) unless you’re trying to use it much like you used the Xanax reference regarding your father. But then again, the holier than thou aspect wouldn’t have any place, right? Yes, it’s rhetorical, just sayin’.

I could go on but there’s really no need to, because Mr. Galloway sums up everything that I’m implying in his own words. To wit:

To be clear, socialism may be a better way to go, as evidenced by the study showing 4 of the 5 happiest nations are socialist democracies. However, unless we’re going to provide universal healthcare and universal pre-K, let’s not embrace The Hunger Games for the working class on the way up, and the Hallmark Channel for the shareholder class on the way down.

All I’ll say to the above is the following, using the very words Mr. Galloway used preceding the above paragraph: “We. Have. Lost. The Script.”

Maybe we have lost the script, but we’ve lost it well before today. The issue here is that “Prof G” seems to assert he’s found it. The issue for me? It should have been left right where it belongs – in the trash-bin of history. e.g. Socialism. You know, the thing he thinks is just groovy. Pass the bong, man.

I no longer need to hear, read or listen to some college professor teaching business to America’s next generation (while universities charge crippling tuition rates) that can start off his screed quoting Lenin, speciously conflating cronyism for capitalism, then extolling why socialism may be a better model. And I won’t. Again, period.

Just one last hint regarding Mr. Galloway’s argument…

Under a socialist model – there would be no America, therefore, no reason for any boat trip for your parents, hence no college gig for you. But not to worry – Lenin, socialism and more would still be all the rage for you and the other “cool kids.” That, or you could take it up with the authorities back behind the building.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

F.T.W.S.I.J.D.G.I.G.T.

(For those who say I just don’t get it…get this)

Over the past few days I’ve been giving some first hand accounts of what I went through during the Savings and Loan Crisis of the 1980’s in terms of banks and more (i.e. what was once a done deal may never get done). It is exactly to that point I relay a note I was sent today from a colleague and I’m stating it here with his permission. To wit (paraphrasing):

“I was listening the other day (e.g., to the show) when you were talking about how the banks changed their terms in midstream only to leave you hanging and I thought: Yeah, maybe for a small customer. But that wouldn’t happen in a serious deal of any size. Boy was I wrong.

I was just notified by one of my friends that was closing on a $15,000,000.00 plus refinance with his current bank where he went through the entire type of process you were explaining (i.e., first name terms and dealt with only the top brass of the bank, all paper work approved and said to be a ‘done deal’) and was to close on Monday of next week, only to be notified yesterday (Wednesday) by email – the deal was off with no recourse. He is both absolutely stunned and shocked and was counting (as in needed) this already approved refinance.”

There’s nothing more to add.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr