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F.T.W.S.I.J.D.G.I.G.T.

(For Those Who Say I Just Don’t Get It… Get This)

When I first began opining commentary in regards to the capital markets, Federal Reserve, et. al. I was originally greeted with calls of “conspiracy theorist” and much, much worse. Over the years all that “conspiracy” theory has been proven out to be prescient facts.

Way back when the idea that there was a “secret hand” behind many of the dumbfounding market moves, where a sudden sell-off was immediately reversed out-of-the-blue with no arguable catalyst. All there was to explain it was some next in rotation fund manager mugging a camera to say “This shows that there is plenty of investors willing to buy this market!” hogwash. This back then and up until not too long ago was still the norm.

This phenom back then was usually referred to by people such as myself as “The PPT” (The Plunge Protection Team.) This was howled and laughed at by the entire mainstream business/financial media. Today, that same media now howls and toots their collective horns to call it “Prudent monetary policy” also known as QE (quantitative easing.) But back then this “tin-foil hat idea” and a few more like it such as “The Fed monetizing the debt” or, “The Fed buying stocks” was also seen as a conspiracy laden, tin-foil hat crowd affairs that needed to be segregated to its own isolation i.e., They refered to all of us as “The Doom Crew.”

And yet today, I submit to you the following. To wit:

(Source)

For those that may be lost on the irony of the above, or shrugging their shoulders thinking “And?” Believe it or not, you prove my point ever-the-more. Here’s why…

The lower comment from Mr. Gasparino’s feed is actually the first, which was the view that many had in response to the AG laying out a real anti-trust lawsuit today against Google®.

I mentioned this alert in real-time on the show today, because it was absolutely bazaar to those of us that understand the way things used to work which was – when a public company was even whispered to be under any eye of the authorities, the stock would immediately take a hit, which was easily explainable to the circumstances. i.e., law suits means expenses, sometimes “Bigly.” So it was an arguably easy assumption to have. But today?

Not only did it not go down in any major way, but it began to rally well over one to one and a half percent on the news. With a reaction like that, one should be sued every day, right? Right?

So, now if you read the top one where he implicitly states the reasons now becoming apparent i.e., “Fed plans to institute its emergence [sic] powers…” you now understand just how perverse, adulterated and perverted the once bastion of “free market enterprise and capital formation” has now become. To prove my point all one needs to understand is this…

The above is precisely what I said would take place years ago and was called a “tin-foil hat wearing no-nothing.” Now?

“It’s a “Buy! Buy!! Buy!!! Because the Fed’s got your back.” And today proves that to be so.

I would say “what a charade” but they don’t even bother to try and hide it any longer, for it’s now a telegraphed buy signal by the ultimate croupier.

But I will say this: What a complete farce all this has become.

At least I know that’s still applicable.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Footnote: These “FTWSIJDGIGT” articles came into being when many of the topics I had opined on over the years were being openly criticized for “having no clue”. Yet, over the years, these insights came back around showing maybe I knew a little bit more than some were giving me credit for. It was my way of tongue-in-cheek as to not use the old “I told you so” analogy. I’m saying this purely for the benefit of those who may be new or reading here for the first time. I never wanted or want to seem like I’m doing the “Nah, nah, nah, nah, nah” type of response to my detractors. I’d rather let the chips fall – good or bad – and let readers decide the credibility of either side. Occasionally however, there are and have been times they do need to be pointed out, which is why these now have taken on a life of their own. (i.e., something of significance per se that may have a direct impact on one’s business etc., etc.) And readers, colleagues, and others have requested their continuance.

Here’s What I’m Watching

In regards to the current gyrations within the “markets” the following chart is about all there is left to speculate with, because from a technical perspective, it has pretty much nullified every, once useful, metric for calculation into the dust-heap of technical analysis history. But that’s what $90 Trillion dollars of globally synchronized central bank money printing will do. i.e., It enables the fantastical fantasy of “money for nothing” to be believed far longer than prudent perspectives can keep their sanity.

So with the above said, for those that want to know what I may still be watching, below is the same chart I’ve been using over these past weeks only with updated notations. To wit:

(Chart Source)

I’m still standing with my original call, for it is still plausible based on any remaining semblance of useful technical analysis judgements. But, as I’ve alluded to over the past week, it’s been all but nullified. So for those that want to know what I’m watching – It’s all about where I noted “Right now…”

If it stays above that line then “New, never before seen in human history highs!” headlines are more than plausible. Under it? The story can change faster than you can say “Wait, what?!”

And that’s about it.

As always, we shall see.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.

Don’t Just Watch But Interpret Differently

I received a call today from a college to discuss one of my assertions when it came to negotiation tactics at apex levels. What he was asking me to qualify further (actually, more like taking issue with) was when I said that the current stimulus negotiations had been turned on its ear and the president just moved the onus off his shoulders and put it squarely on Ms. Pelosi’s.

This simple negotiating tactic i.e., calling something off entirely, out-of-the-blue, then saying you may be open to further discussions, is something that happens at high level, high stakes negotiations everyday. It’s just that most people (especially politicians) never deal with such. But, in business, it’s more common than common, which is why I had stated and explained it on the show today.

However, I also said something else that I needed to remind him of, where I said “Don’t think for a second the other side is not aware of these tactics, it’s just who dares use them first, because Ms. Pelosi is far from any slouch when it comes to getting what she wants.” And then I said the following…

Do you think Ms. Pelosi is making the call for the 25th amendment action because she wants to apply this to Mr. Trump? Or, do you think the party elders want to make sure if Mr. Biden does get elected and then something happens where the V.P. needs to take over – that they are going to leave it to chance that Ms. Harris will do as Ms. Pelosi or the others want her to do?

Think about it..because when he regained his breath after I made the statement , that’s all he could.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

F.T.T.W.T.K. Addendum

(For Those That Want To Know) what I’m watching: Addendum

When you hear me say such things as “You have to think like a machine sometimes to interpret these ‘markets.”‘ The following two charts show precisely what that looks like in real time. For when you look at the first one, it is the same as the one I posted prior (i.e., early this afternoon.) What you’ll see is the path I interpreted as to be the most likely is exactly what followed, represented by the blue channel. (note: and was not moved from the prior only extended) To wit:

(Chart Source)

As far as what the machines are doing in the overnight session, here’s a chart of the S&P 500 (aka E-minis) as I type this at about 7:15pm ET Wednesday. Again, to wit:

(Chart Source)

Another way to look at the above is using the commercial tag-line that sums this all up better than most, and is from the clean up organization known as Servpro®.

“Like it never even happened.™”

Or, maybe it was said better by one of my favorite bands Pink Floyd…

“Welcome my son, welcome to the machine”

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.

F.T.T.W.T.K.

(For Those That Want To Know) what I’m watching

As I type this (~1:00pm ET Wednesday) the “markets” are both exhibiting, as well as positioned precisely where we were yesterday when I was both observing and about to opine the following…

…following this melt-up via my technical eye when for all intents and purposes I mused looking at the unfolding price action and said “Well, there’s no denying that, that’s a textbook breakout which opens the door for a possible retest of not just the prior highs, but setting the table for the headline: New never before seen in human history highs!”

“Just When You Think…”

What happened next is yesterday’s news. However, today the exact same set up via a technical perspective is playing out with the same implications. To wit:

(Chart Source)

The above is the S&P 500™ represented via one minute candles/bars. Everything that was possible yesterday is still possible today, meaning: Get back under that red line (notice how important the market seems to view it?) and a continuation lower, and possibly much lower and faster is right back front and center. Stay above it? Just reread the above quote from yesterday, it’s that simple.

Oh, and speaking of simple, may I remind you of this one other simple piece of information…

It’s still all based on whether or not Ms. Pelosi wants a stimulus deal. i.e., Do you feel lucky that she will allow Mr. Trump a win (in any form regardless of size) going into the election in under 28 days?

It’s that simple and complicated all at the same time.

As always, we shall see.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.

Just When You Think…

At around 2:40pm ET today (Tuesday) I was following the current gyrations in the “markets” with what’s been no less than an incessant melt-up fueled by press releases of pure innuendo that a “deal” (i.e., stimulus) was still possible. Both sides of the political aisle have been adroit at getting in front of a camera or microphone to spout their version of “maybe.” And the “markets” have responded like Pavlov’s dogs salivating at just the idea rather than anything substantive.

As I iterated, I was following this melt-up via my technical eye when for all intents and purposes I mused looking at the unfolding price action and said “Well, there’s no denying that, that’s a textbook breakout which opens the door for a possible retest of not just the prior highs, but setting the table for the headline: New never before seen in human history highs!”

To be thoroughly honest I was a bit taken back, for it’s been getting harder and harder to take this insanity, where the once bastion of capital formation, that was the envy of the world, would once again prove itself out to be nothing more than an adulterated, perversion of what it once was.

I mean, let’s be honest here, even these levels currently with the backdrop still unfolding of a completely smashed economy is still, in itself, a gross representation of what it once was.

However, record highs, once again, in this environment is getting to be like salt in an open wound. The reason why, for me, is that it allows for this perversion to go on indefinitely while the gutting of small business with bankruptcies and more continue at an ever faster pace.

Or said differently: Until everyone realizes that this entire facade is nothing more than a Potemkin Village constructed with nothing more than stimulus (i.e., free money) for siding, and financial pundits spinning fairy-tales that would make Walt Disney blush as the glue holding the facade aloft – nothing meaningful to truly help small businesses and entrepreneurs and the millions of people they employ will get done. Nothing. Period. And it sickens me.

So for those that are in the “The stock market is fairly priced based on solid earnings and blah blah blah…” I offer the following.

Below are two charts. The first is precisely when I was watching and about to post, offering the position that, for what it’s worth – new highs were now very possible and how repugnant I felt about it. To wit:

(Chart Source)

Then, as I say in the notation, I literally went to get a cup of coffee before I was going to sit down and write it – then this happened. Again, to wit:

(Chart Source)

That move noted by “This happened!” is what I saw when I returned to my desk from getting my coffee. I almost dropped it, but that didn’t stop my jaw from dropping, for I really was quite taken aback.

I immediately perused the web looking for the news and found out that only minutes after I left my desk it was reported that the president called for the negotiations for a “deal” were to be halted.

You can now see just how dependent these “markets” are on “Good earnings and blah, blah, blah.” Hint: They aren’t.

Without stimulus or free money via the Fed – it all falls apart. Just as I’ve been warning. The above is the first indication of how correct to heed my warnings, as to be prepared for anything between now and the election, still are.

For those that may not have caught my insinuation in the above paragraph, yes “first indication” is correct, because now it’s all about the what follows. And from a technical perspective, if this current down move is not immediately reversed. (i.e., someone of prominence with control of some very large purse strings or printing press) Then everything I’ve been warning about moves not only back from being nearly nullified, but rather…

To the head of the table. i.e., The March lows can come much sooner, and with far more scarier resolve than an abandoned roller-coaster that suddenly begins rolling down the steepest vertical on Halloween.

As always, we shall see. But today shows just how frightening this can all become in less time than it takes to get a simple cup of coffee.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.

F.W.I.W.

(For What It’s Worth)

As I have been saying on the show repeatedly, “The possibility for something to come out of left field and startle this market needs to be on the watch for – more now – than ever.” That “now” may have just taken place.

As I’m typing this (approx. 9:00pm ET Thursday evening) the Democrat controlled House of Representatives just passed on a strict party line vote (i.e., not one Republican) a $2.2Trillion stimulus package. What this signals is that there will be no, repeat, no forthcoming “free money” of any type to anyone. This along with the forthcoming jobs number due before the U.S. markets open has the possibility to upend any current perceived sense of calm.

Remember: The “markets” have been ultra-sensitive to any stimulus talks over the last day or so, spiking up when it looked like a possibility and falling sharply when talks broke off. Those rises and falls have been sharp and sudden, but in relationship to the overall picture have been somewhat muted in severity. This now very unambiguous “There is no stimulus, and there won’t be any!” vote, I believe, will now be acted upon in earnest.

As always, we shall see. But if we do? I think it may be as soon as tomorrow.

We’ll discuss this and more on Friday’s show.

See you then.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Y.J.C.M.T.S.U.

(You Just Can’t Make This Stuff Up)

It appears my latest missive (i.e., commenting on the current Joe Rogan situation) has caused quite a stir. What has been fascinating is many of the responses we’ve received. Some have been complimentary, others have been down right insulting, usually in response to my writing style, but that’s par for the course.

But what I’ve also rediscovered is the vitriol in regards to some political angle as if I’m taking one side or the other. It appears even the very mention of a candidate’s name, if only using it for reference, throws you into the political quagmire. Dare I say – I used three, one from each. So in response I have been targeted by each saying I’m a ________ (fill in the blank) supporter and an idiot. Well, let me declare right now I am not a ________(fill in the blank) supporter. However, when it comes to “idiot?” OK, enough said.

Another thing that seems to be proving out is what I addressed on the show last week, where a study was done indicating that nearly 90% of all articles posted online (both professional news and others) never get read but for the headline. This latest article of mine appears to prove that correct.

As all of you well know I don’t and won’t argue the “he said she said” of politics, don’t and won’t endorse any candidate, and stay as far away from politics as I can. And yet – I’m being accused of being a mouthpiece for ______________(fill in the blank.)

You just can’t make this stuff up.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Spotify Employees Counter-punch Joe Rogan’s Jujitsu Move For Independence

Back in April I commented on the kerfuffle that was the surrounding Joe Rogan and his podcast. Here’s how I started that commentary:

For those that may not be aware Joe Rogan of the popular podcast “The Joe Rogan Experience” may have just entered a political octagon for a fight he is truly unprepared for. The issue at hand here is this: Although Mr. Rogan is a trained MMA fighter and has probably met many an adversary or two with a tendency to not just bend rules, but break them when no one is looking (i.e., think cheap shot). His assumption that he himself can bend or break the rules of the political arena shows just how unprepared he truly is to this blood-sport known as politics.

Radar Alert: Watch for the Joe Rogan Political Tap out. April 2020

That “kerfuffle” was in relation to Mr. Rogan stating that he would vote for Pres. Trump, rather than Joe Biden, since his first choice (e.g., Bernie Sanders) was eliminated. It was then I made the proclamation that this (Mr. Rogan endorsing Trump) would not be allowed to stand, and Mr. Rogan’s troubles were just starting.

How correct that assumption was is now playing out in very real-time and public view.

Over the unfolding months of spring YouTube™ (much as I said it would) began censoring Mr. Rogan’s content. This pushed Mr. Rogan to negotiate a deal with Spotify™ and jettison what he was now describing as: Silicon Valley Overlords.

Here’s what I said about this move that June:

However, here is where things begin to get interesting from a spectators point of view. The reason why is: when it comes to the octagon a tap out ends the fight and the winner is declared. Done. This fight? Let’s just say – not even close.
What we have here is the opponent (i.e. Google et.al.) believed there was no alternative for Mr. Rogan and he would conclude it himself soon enough, and just tap out. i.e., Acquiesce to either a neutering of his positions and/or demand a “hostage tape” style reversal be made. 
Yet, the jujitsu move was made and Mr. Rogan signed a reported $100MM dollar deal with Spotify, taking most of his content with him. Both a daringly strategic and tactfully executed maneuver in my view. But it’s now fraught with danger for both Spotify, as well as Mr. Rogan. Let me explain…
As I iterated prior – this fight is far from over. And as a matter of fact it may be only intensifying.

“Why Joe Rogan’s Tap Out Didn’t End The Fight…” June, 2020

To reiterate from that prior article, I commended Mr. Rogan for not only the tenacity of his stance, but for the tactfully delivered move going from one distribution channel (YouTube™) to another (Spotify™), delivered in a fashion that would make any Brazilian Jujitsu master smile. However, as I also said, “This fight is far from over. And as a matter of fact it may be only intensifying.”

Suddenly the Twitter™ universe erupted with calls that Mr. Rogan’s show should be cancelled, but that didn’t seem to have any effect on the deal or move. Then – he moved. And guess what happened next? Hint: Not all of his shows were made available. e.g., His new home just censored him.

Can you say: Uh Oh?

Mr. Rogan’s promise (and arguable assumption) that all of his content would be made available on his new outlet was suddenly nullified. Spotify, in what was seen by all as its own very strategic and tactfully delivered acquisition to score and secure the current top podcast of all podcasts, did precisely what Mr. Rogan thought he was escaping. i.e., It appears he just traded one overlord for another.

This is where many thought: Oh well, he pocketed $100MM and lost a few older episodes. Big deal, move on, deal with it. But that would be wishful thinking, because when it comes to “thought police” and Silicon Valley? Overlord enforcement trumps monetary outlay or gains.

That’s not hyperbole. Again, from my prior article. To wit:

This ideological difference coming from big-tech is not just a preference – but is currently a position they have decided to bet everything as to win the complete overthrow of the political, becoming the ruling arbiters of all they deem worthy. This is for control – and any fight for control means: total and utter destruction by any means (person, place or thing) that does not comply, let alone agree.

I now believe the thing to watch for clues is whether or not Mr. Rogan has successfully countered the initial move with a move of his own worthy of the record books. Or, did he quite possibly get himself into a position that may turn into something far worse? 

Or said differently…

Did he deliver a move that seemingly countered an all encompassing choke hold, only to find that move places him directly into that same adversary’s cross-hairs for an even more efficient way to be taken out?

Suddenly those “cross-hairs” have appeared. And they are coming from the very people that desperately need Mr. Rogan in more ways than one. i.e., what should be most important, not to mention self-evident – they need his show to be even more successful as to pay for the outlay of both the $100MM – and – the hopeful forthcoming income to support all those working at Spotify.

Think any of that matters? Hint: Nope.

Remember, in Silicon Valley: Ideology and strict adherence to it is all that matters. All else is verboten, regardless of any cost – and – will be enforced one way or the other. Period.

Think that’s hyperbole? Here’s the latest coming from that company’s very own employees, which just spent $100MM from the coffers that employs them. Again, to wit:

A contingent of activist Spotify staffers are now considering a walkout or full-blown strike if their demands for direct editorial oversight of The Joe Rogan Experiencepodcast aren’t met.

Late last week, we first reported that Spotify employees were demanding direct editorial oversight over the recently-acquired Joe Rogan Experience podcast.  That would include the ability to directly edit or remove sections of upcoming interviews, or block the uploading of episodes deemed problematic. The employees also demanded the ability to add trigger warnings, corrections, and references to fact-checked articles on topics discussed by Rogan in the course of his multi-hour discussions.

“Spotify Employees Threaten to Strike If Joe Rogan Podcasts…” Digital Music News

As I implied when this all began: Mr. Rogan not only could say no wrong, but do anything he wanted. For the world was his oyster. That is…

Until he dared say he endorsed Trump. Now he’s moved from the octagon for media blood-sport into the steel-cage death-match arena of the political. And this arena shows no mercy, nor holds any quarter.

As I iterated prior: Although Mr. Rogan is a trained MMA fighter and has probably met many an adversary or two with a tendency to not just bend rules, but break them when no one is looking (i.e., think cheap shot). His assumption that he himself can bend or break the rules of the political arena shows just how unprepared he truly is to this blood-sport known as politics.

No “pay per view” required.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

‘As Of Now’ Update

Below is the latest machinations within the “markets” using the same chart of the S&P 500™ that I’ve been using continually. The only change (as in the latest) I’ve made is noting where the day session ended today e.g.. Wednesday. To wit:

(Chart Source)

As we sit currently: all of the gains for 2020 have now been nullified. What is far more relevant implied in that statement is this…

All the proclamations you heard on CNBC™ the day I made that first notation “Today…what a difference…” have also – all been nullified. Just as I said they would.

Here’s a refresher for those that may not have heard them.

“…today’s pullback is a drop in the bucket”
“…what we’ve been waiting for – a healthy pause that refreshes”
“…the damage today is really not as bad as it looks”
-Bob Pisani

But what do I know.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.