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The above is important to ponder because of this reasoning…
First: Although the “market” appeared to be following the assumed path discussed prior, following within the highlighted channel in text book form (see the perfect touch and reversal marked with “First…”). It ran completely out of steam and never gained a modicum of strength the moment the European markets closed at 11:30am ET.
Second: Due to the nature of what today represented (e.g., Month/Quarter end) it was striking just how exhausted or flaccid this touted “new bull market” petered out with barely a whimper into the close.
Third: It continued (as well as continues as I type this in the new overnight session) to fall ever further in the remaining 15 minutes of futures. Every-time I look up at the above all that comes to mind is the word: wilting. Usually a finish into this type of day has momentum one way or the other, not the obvious deflating appearance that it demonstrated today.
“So what does this mean?” I can hear you asking and it’s a good question, because this rather paltry showing of any remaining strength might just be the strongest clue for where it’s going in the very near future. i.e., Something wicked this way comes.
It’s very possible, as well as plausible, that all of the oomph that set into motion the myriad of so-called “smart-crowd” to run over their mothers as to get in front of the nearest camera, keyboard and microphone to signal some sort of “all clear,” was nothing more than the phenom of a very oversold market that met a bunch of front runners (aka “HFT parasitical bots”) to feast on the well publicized pension re-balancing that needed to take place over the past several days. In other words – the re-balancing was over as of yesterday, and today, it had to stand on its own – and it just folded out of both exhaustion, as well as no further need to buy/sell or balance.
If the above has any merit it doesn’t change any of my prior prognostications of where this “market” might be going or venturing next. As a matter of fact – it further enforces that opinion.
I’ve been inundated with calls and more about what I’m watching in regards to the “markets,” especially in regards to this so-called “new bull market.” Don’t blame me for the sarcasm sounding quote. That has actually been used in both print, radio and TV. And they wonder why no one views them as credible, but I digress.
As I’ve stated on my show, I view the recent gyrations over the past few days as nothing more than month-end/quarter positioning. Remember: there are more shenanigans that happen at any month/quarter end than almost at any other time. So with that said here’s what I’m looking for in terms of my prognosis. To wit:
The above is a chart of the S&P 500™ represented via 15 minute bars/candles as of the cash close today. I believe we’ll end up in that darker shaded area within the channel to both close out the month and maybe even go a bit higher on April 1st to start the new month, probably breaking up and out of the channel (doesn’t have to but odds favor it) to then pursue a rather steep path downward towards the lower arrow. It is quite conceivable there are two outcomes should this happen.
The first: We find some sort of support there and then migrate back upwards.
Or: we could break through that area and not find any real support until the index is well below 2000, sporting handles that begin with 19 or worse – 18.
Doesn’t mean it will, this is just how I’m viewing what I’m seeing and thinking if my “reading of the tea leaves” is correct – that’s what I’m watching to take place in confirming it.
Let me also state for anyone new: This is not trading advice or anything of the sort. This is only my interpretation of how I’m envisioning these “markets” under the current circumstances. For as I always make clear: If anyone tells you they know what’s going to happen next don’t just walk away, but run – and fast!
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For those that have been following my work over the years they’ve heard me use the term “I’m probably the most famous person you’ve never heard of.” countless times. The reason for that is because many times my articles, quotes or something other will be strewn across many of the largest media sources around the globe, and yet, my name may be barely a mention.
I use the “Reuters™ is reporting…” analogy for example to explain this phenom. Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not complaining by any stretch of the imagination. It just – is what it is. The comforting fact of this is what I state all the time: It doesn’t matter if no one believes me, I know the truth and can back it up if needed.
This is a far different position for expressing whether or not you truly have some form of thought leadership track record, as opposed to others that claim they do only to produce metrics and more that can easily be paid for (and very cheaply I’ll add). Or, paid for some article to be run featuring them in one of the many formally highly coveted “newsstand” cover stories. Yes, paid. You’d be surprised how many “top” business leaders, motivational speakers, social-media gurus and others fall into this list. Hint: you’d be stunned just how many and who.
So with the above for context I would like to show you something a friend of mine just sent me asking, “Are you in this?” To which I replied: Of course, can’t you read my name right there in bold letters?!” (cue sarcasm alert here) To wit:
For those that may not remember I have used InfoWars™ in many an example when a few years back as they were at their peak (before all the shadow and now outright banning on some platforms) that I never understood the term “gone viral” in regards to web content till I landed on their front-page.
I have no personal contact or knowledge of anyone connected there, but as most of my material found its way on various media sites suddenly – there I was. It was an eye-opening experience, to say the least, to experience when a website claims they have 10’s of millions of page views (i.e., probably overstating by factors of 10) to suddenly find out – it’s probably an understatement!
What the above is displaying is the interview I did with Charles on my show back in December of last year, that he re-posted onto his own blog. Please let me emphasize this point: don’t get me wrong, I am not complaining about anything here. What I’m doing is trying to put examples to show why it’s so important to understand metrics and what to know about those metrics as to both not only not kid yourself, but to also, not beat yourself up when you think you’re having no impact.
You have to know how to both gauge and interpret. And its an art-form most have no idea even exists never mind read or interpret correctly. (i.e., see recent Madonna in bathtub video, or better yet, maybe not)
If you look at the above my name, my show or anything else to do with me is no where to be found on the above. But that’s the way it goes if you want to play in these waters and be able to spout the line of “thought leader.” Because either you’re making news – even if your name isn’t mentioned – or you’re more than likely just posing and saying that you are.
And the magazine racks are filled with that type. Oh yeah, and also all those “Who’s Who” books. But I digress.
On a side note: Charles’ work shows up much the same way as mine does (or did) across the web and media. i.e., He doesn’t submit much of his work, rather, many a media site just scrapes and reprints with his implied permission. And when it comes to metrics? As I say of “not kidding yourself.” Many times I have given the example that if you put my published articles into book form from over the past 10 years they would fill a library shelf. I’ve even put a picture portraying that argument for effect on the website. It’s a fairly impressive stack and is verifiable. That is, until you compare its equivalent with Charles. For not only has Charles written about 10 books I know of (and you should visit his site and purchase one because they’re worth it and he’s having a sale) but if my posts could fill a library shelf (albeit a small one) in book form – his can fill the rest of the entire library! The word “prolific” is an absolute understatement.