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Following The Blue Line Update

On the show yesterday (Wednesday) I was discussing the current gyrations in the “markets” where I stated that there does come a point where certain patterns, trend-lines, etc., etc. become either irrelevant or need to be changed/altered. However, with that said, I pointed out that the “blue line” that I have been using was not in that category as of yet, even though the “markets” appear to be on an assumed unstoppable march. So it’s in that light I’m putting up the following that has been updated (e.g., the larger time frame) and one to show the more detailed via a 15 minute version zoomed in of what has transpired over these last few days. To wit:

(Chart Source)

There are two very important observations to point out on the above. The first: That “final gap fill” has now been accomplished almost to the decimal point as of yesterday. The second: The price movement during the day sessions so far this week have been the equivalent of what is known as a “lifeless market.” i.e., you get the price bump higher in the overnight to make the “markets” gap up – then – sit in a range of about 10 points ping ponging back and forth all day long going nowhere. My own moniker for this type of price action you may remember me saying as “Screaming sideways to nowhere.”

Another characteristic I’ve noted was that this “market” is displaying another type of movement which also has a moniker some refer to as “Swinging higher monkey bar style.” This is where the price action seems to go higher imitating what we all used to do playing in the gym or parks using the hand over hand ladder cross. I pointed this out prior, but here’s the latest, again, to wit:

(Chart Source)

Remember, as I say all the time: “I don’t draw the lines – the market does. I just try to connect the dots.” So when looking at the above remember to keep in mind that blue line hasn’t moved from when I first used it in the prior charts. However, as you can clearly see – the machines seem to be very, very, very (did I say very?) cognizant of exactly where it is and what it means to them. Don’t let that point be glossed over, for if they’re paying attention to it (as they are with seemingly pinpoint precision) so should the rest of us.

As always, no one knows what happens next, but the above is why I have yet to change my stance, unlike most that are trying to convince themselves (and anyone else that is still watching their clown shows) “It’s all clear, just buy, buy, buy!”

We shall see.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Note: This is not financial or trading advice of any sort. This is for discussion purposes only in regards to broader topics. Please read or reread the “About this site” page for further details.

One Of These Things Doesn’t Belong

In your best rendition of Sesame Street® acapella, sing the above while trying to figure out why the following headline is about as informative as trying to get your economic daily business news from kindergartners. Ready?

“Wall Street surges on hopes of passing for next wave of government stimulus.”

That’s an actual “headline alert” that just came across my screen. Here’s the main issue here…

First: The “hope” is being held as the “markets” reach within a hares breath of new, never before seen in human history highs. And that “stimulus” is only being argued for because the entire economy is in shambles with metrics far exceeding the worst ever seen. e.g., over 52 million have, so far, filed for unemployment insurance being just one.

This is just the latest example portraying real kindergartners have far better perspective when it comes to understanding complex synergies – than the entirety of the business/financial mainstream media.

Then again, maybe getting your economic business news from kids would be far more informative – because most kids would never be so stupid as to believe the above.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Following The Blue

In my most recent commentary I’ve left the same chart up now going on for over a week. The importance of this iteration has been for its longer time frame view. e.g., based on a daily perspective. (Note: this is not trading or financial advice, nor to be inferred as anything of the sort. This is big picture commentary for discussion purposes only. See “about this site” for any questions.)

As I have said on the show ad nauseum the “markets” have done nothing to alter my overall position and have in many ways been playing out in such a text book form that it’s almost a bit too text book. So to show this (once again) in real time detail I am going to post another that is current to last night’s day close (Wednesday’s) only zoomed in to the last few days. To wit:

(Chart Source)

The above is just the upper portion of that prior daily using 15min interval candles/bars. As I had said last week:

I would not be surprised to see the “markets” slowly rise up during earnings week doing what they call “riding the underside” of that dominant trend line (blue). If it does it implies weakness, not strength, which is why it needs to be paid attention to if it were to break through it (which it has).

Where we go from here, nobody knows. But all I’ll assert is now that the Federal Reserve has shown its hand, the “market” now awaits what may be the most important day for any earnings – which is today.

As always, we shall see. But that “seeing” I do believe may happen today.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

F.T.T.W.T.K. Update

(For Those That Want To Know)

Below is an updated chart using the S&P 500™ as of today’s (Wednesday) close. It is depicted using daily candles/bars. It is more of a “Big Picture” chart rather than some of the more nuanced versions I use. However, I think this view is a bit more important than the others today, because it reflects more of where we were and where we’ve come back to.

As I’ve said ad nauseam on my show: I have still yet to see anything happening within the capital markets that is sufficient enough for me to alter my ongoing commentary of where or what I see happening any time between now and November. e.g. I am still of the opinion we are going to revisit those March lows, at a minimum. Proving, either I was correct with my analysis, or the Prof. Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School will be with his, which is precisely the opposite as in “never will.”

So here’s that “picture.” To wit:

(Chart Source)

The above pretty much speaks for itself via the applied annotations. What I find awfully interesting as I was preparing all this is that both Microsoft™ as well as Tesla™ have reported earnings – and the indexes have barely moved in the overnight. As a matter of fact Microsoft reported a much anticipated (and breathlessly awaited) beat for the report. And the stock is as of this writing trading lower by over 2.5%.

Tesla did much the same, and although it is currently up – in retrospect of how important of a report this was and all the great hopes riding on it – for all intents and purposes – its only up about $65 as of this writing. To anyone else that would be rock solid, break out the champagne bottles. But we’re talking Tesla here. It moves multiples of that any morning or afternoon depending on what type of underwear Elon may be selling on whichever given day.

As always, we shall see.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Thinking Aloud

I ask this as both a question, as well as what should be taken as an ominous warning to the entirety of professional sports…

Do actions have consequences? And if so, precisely what actions will be taken when multi-million $dollar salaries of sports figures, announcers, owners, media broadcasters and more have to not only ask, but contemplate the following:

What happens to all the “guaranteed” salaries, bonuses and more if no is willing to watch the political play on the field you have demanded? For bankruptcy court is the place where all those “guarantees” suddenly get nullified. And if fans either can’t return, or even more problematic, don’t return. The term “Red Zone” is going to take on a whole new meaning, even before it too is deemed offensive.

And here’s just one more that will surely follow the above: will the need for “bankruptcy protection” via the courts then be seen as a racist ploy to get out of said contracts?

Think about it.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Y.J.C.M.T.S.U.

(You Just Can’t Make This Stuff Up)

I just wanted to send out a note to explain the seemingly funny way each segment began today. (e.g., Friday’s show) There’s a reason for it, but we still have no idea on how it happened. Evidently at some point either during post production or uploading five seconds of each segment was eliminated.

We had difficulties today like you read about, some on my end, some in others within our control that seemingly we couldn’t control. And on top of this entire portions of the internet were either completely down and we had no access, or suddenly dropped in and out at the worst of all times. Let’s just say: It’s been one of those days.

I received the call a while ago alerting me of this latest issue and was asked. “What do you want to do?” After a few choice words I screamed at the ceiling I asked if the issue made the program un-listenable. I was told it only effected the first five seconds of intros, no more. Then I asked: Can the corrected be uploaded without much difficulty? I was told “It’s ready now.” So I said do it.

So for those of you that have already listened, now you know the reason why you may of thought, “Huh, that was a bit strange going in.” Now you know why.

As I iterated, the corrected version is now live, but there’s really nothing lost from the prior. It was only me saying “Welcome back to….” that’s about it.

Again, all I can say is: You just can’t make this stuff up!

© Mark St.Cyr

Prepare For Friday

On today’s show (Thursday’s) I touched upon a few things that fall under a much bigger subject matter. I realized by the time I ended I had barely begun. So, I have decided rather than touch around the edges as I did today, that Friday’s show will be a dedicated deep dive into understanding probably the most important subject matter of our time as business leaders. Let’s call it a “mark your calendar” type show, which will help showcase the basis of what the MYTR Broadcast encapsulates. It is exactly this subject matter and the ability for that deep dive we went on hiatus in the first place.

See you then.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

F.T.T.W.T.K. Update

(For Those That Want To Know)

On yesterday’s show (Monday’s) I gave a scenario that one needed to be cognizant of a few things. The first: Earnings season begins in earnest. The second: You need to take into account the psychology of many that are both nervous of this fact, along with getting back to even and how they may handle it. i.e., They may start asking for their money back, regardless of what “gains” may be told/sold.

Below is a chart using yesterday’s price movements during the day session in the U.S. I’ve notated it to allow it to speak for itself. What happens next is anyone’s guess. However, what I will state is the following – all this enhances my arguments to my running commentary. And for those that aren’t that adept at technical analysis: These, once again, are almost too perfect text book examples. The issue here is that if they actually foretell or portend what’s in store for the “markets” going forward. All I’ll say to that is: It ain’t good.

As always, we shall see. Here’s the latest. To wit:

(Chart Source)

Note: Although there are disclaimers and statements everywhere on this site, and I state it routinely on my show as to make sure no one ever gets confused nor conflates my analysis and commentary to mean something that it is not. I feel compelled, once again, that it must be repeated because of sudden surges in web traffic:

For anyone that is thinking, or using any of my commentary in any way, shape, manner or form as “trading tips” or anything of the sort. They are not, nor are they to be assumed as such in any possible way. See the disclaimers or re-read the “About this site” documentation. For that is not what I do here.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Riddle Me This…

As asked in the voice by my favorite Riddler, Frank Gorshin of the Batman® franchise. “Riddle me this!”

As sensitive (as in, existential) as these “markets” are to anything to do with Federal Reserve largess. Why would a voting member (Dallas Fed. President Robert Kaplan) of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC (the committee that deals out that very largess) suddenly state publicly the day before one of the most heavily anticipated earnings report with a backdrop of metrics that dwarf some depression era comparables say the following. To wit:

 …emergency lending facilities launched by the central bank were necessary to support market function, “but they won’t be left in place indefinitely.”

Since the mouthing of that statement said “markets” have gone into free-fall. Tesla™ itself has taken a near 18% pop on price to near $1800 and as of this writing has wiped out that entire gain flirting with going red on the day.

Again, I ask: Why?

Unless?

Think about it.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr