Author: Mark St.Cyr

Mark is a globally recognized expert in entrepreneurship, motivation, business, sales and financial markets. He writes from a first hand perspective. His insights can be both cutting edge, or just a cutting through the clutter. Either way they come from first hand knowledge, and experience that is classic Mark. Visit "Pragmatic Insights For Today's Business World™"

Proud Member of The Only Club That Mattered

When it comes to the world of power, money and finance colloquially known as “Wall Street,” I’m often reminded of a line from the late, great comedian George Carlin “It’s a big club – and you’re not in it!” It’s been and remains that way to this day.

However, with that said, that “club” has morphed from its original grand vision for being the greatest purveyor for the formation of capital to do great things into a charlatan’s palace for huckster enabled rackets so perverse, a den of thieves feels like a safe house in comparison. Some even have their own prime-time shows complete with bells, buzzers and whistles, literally.

This circus show known as the “markets” and their so-called “smart crowd” paraded across the mainstream business/financial media make true circuses like P.T. Barnum’s and Ringling Bros. look like rookie affairs. And old terms like “sucker born everyday” are now simply called an “IPO,” but the implications are the same.

As of this writing it is now proven beyond any shadow of any doubt that what I and others, from within the circle I’m proud to be an alumnus, have said all along is incontrovertible: Today’s capital markets are nothing more than a Potemkin Village creation of central banks.

This is no longer debatable – it is now proven fact. Period, full stop.

And here is your proof. To wit:

(Chart Source)

The above is a daily chart of the S&P 500™ futures as of this writing. The time frame begins when the former Chair, Ms. Yellen passed the bag baton to the current bag holder Chair, Jerome Powell as to implement her previously defined course for normalization back in 2017. Guess what? It hasn’t worked out at all as was described, has it?

Remember the term used back then to describe the process? Hint: rhymes with “like watching paint dry.”

Over the course of many years the mainstream business/financial media has sullied and poo-poohed nearly everything people like myself and other alumni have argued during this period. We’ve been called “the tin foil hat conspiracy crowd” and worse. Others would not say our names and would refer to us as “The doom crew” and other pejoratives they thought were clever. (coughBloombergcough)

Yet, when they did want to name this group publicly, they turned to a clearly fraudulent research paper and firm, and in a style that would make Joseph McCarthy hesitate, they all silently cheered as their mainstream brethren smeared the likes of myself and others across the entire press in repugnant fashion.

Need I remind one that the term “Fake News” was born from this despicable act portrayed against myself and others of this group. This term has been turned upside down and now describes much of the media only via the dogged arguments and consistent push back of the President.

To be clear: I don’t care what side of the political aisle you stand and whether or not you like or hate the current President, for that’s not what I’m talking to.

What I want to direct your attention to is something Breitbart’s John Nolte just referenced. This is from a tweet the other day by Karen Tumulty of the Washington Post™. To wit:

So many things that were called “fake news” by the president and his team turned out to be true. The Mueller Report is an exoneration … of the mainstream media.

Source: @ktumulty

Contrast the above with what the WP did to myself and others when it comes to “Russia.” From his (the above mentioned John Nolte’s) list of: Top 51 Fake News ‘Bombshells’ The Media Spread About Russiagate. Here’s #31, again, to wit:

31. The Washington Post

“More than 200 websites” were “routine peddlers of Russian propaganda during the election season.”

And for those of you that think I’m just trying to insert myself into what has become the biggest media disgrace of our lifetimes. Once again, to wit:

ZH Frontpage circa Nov. 25, 2016

The above is when this putrid display of journalism via the WP and others was launched. As you can see, that article just below the smear reporting is by yours truly. In the “old days” that would be noted as “front page, above the fold” news i.e., prominent placement. So it’s not like I was on the back cover in the spaces where they would also list ads for “X-Ray glasses just $2.00!”

Again, to be clear: This isn’t about me, its about all of us that woke up one morning to find we seemed to have moved from the “those that shall not be named” category in the business/financial media – to those that will now be McCathy-ized via the mainstream press. It truly was a stunning moment for all of us.

All I can say in retrospect (and pretty much said when they did) is that my deepest gratitude goes out to both Glenn Greenwald, Ben Norton of The Intercept™ who came out swinging with the gravitas and heft to call bullsh#t where bullsh#t was and blew this entire sh#t-show into the gutter where it belonged.

Trust me, you don’t understand the true meaning and feeling associated with the term “McCartyism” until you find yourself in the middle of it for no other reason than the media’s decision to swing a broad brush of dung. For my articles (and others in the “club”) had graced the sites of more than half of the top 10 websites listed.

Again, this was the genesis for the term “fake news.” And to the President’s credit (along with my gratitude) he turned that term back-around and now it is the media itself that are now branded with said moniker, where it belongs. I can’t speak for others, but I know, no matter what they may feel about the current President, one thing is without question: it was he that put the term “Fake News” where it belongs, and for that I believe many are grateful, regardless of what political side or thoughts one may hold.

But this isn’t about the political. But it is about “the club.” And that “club” is comprised of many different writers and more that have been espousing true insightful reasoning, and articulating just what the public markets have become, and why: to the detriment of the so-called “smart crowd” everywhere.

We have argued that without central bank interventionism – there are no markets. Again, period, full stop, do not pass go, or collect $200.

What we have today has been further crystallized via the moniker made over, and over, and over again by one David Stockman (another alumnus of said club) “It’s a Casino!”

So now here we are, the “markets” are now making “new never before seen in the history of mankind new highs” – and the earnings reports so far have been pathetic. Here’s just a further sampling of metrics for you to consider as we elevate even higher:

The volume within said “markets” has been abysmal, we have no resolution on trade, economic metrics continue to be even more lackluster than earlier predictions, the Federal Reserve has jettisoned all credibility to save the “markets” from themselves, central banks across the globe have either restarted or are about to interject their own QE reboots and much, much more – and the so-called parade of circus clowns across the mainstream business/financial media are incessantly touting we’re here because of “good earnings, valuation metrics.” Just don’t mention “LYFT™”

I could go on and on, but you get the point: It’s all nothing more than a sophisticated version (although that’s being kind) of some game show with hosts and guests trying to appear as if they know what they’re talking about, rather than the blatant display of “talking their book” and cheerleaders of their political bias.

Need I remind you of one prominent host telling his audience the reason why one needed to listen to their guest’s viewpoint regarding finance was “because they were a democrat?” (coughBloombergcough)

Sorry, something keeps getting stuck in my keyboard.

I had no intention of writing this piece, for in many ways over the years I’ve documented my thoughts and more which are all in the archives.

However, when I saw that tweet by Ms, Tumulty of the WP I became infuriated. The reason was simple. Hint: She’s at the epicenter of where one the biggest smear campaigns originated – and she’s publicly declaring she’s proud of it. Think about that for a moment and let that sink in.

Maybe it’s not that relevant to you, but to someone like myself (and again I would imagine all the other alumni I share a space with) it’s despicable.

I’m drawn to another quote from the McCarthy era that I find fitting, “Do you have no shame?” I’ll leave that interpretation up to you to decide. I’ll assume you know mine.

Although I have no idea who the people over at ZeroHedge™ are. I do know that I’ve been fortunate enough that they found my material worth while to their readership and posted some 200 of my articles to their front page near daily for years. During that time people like myself and others have been called “tin foil clad conspiracy nut jobs,” “doom crew,” “broken clocks” and more.

However, we have made the arguments in spite of them and have been proven to be the ones who were correct all along.

The current state of the “markets” de facto proves it. Trying to argue otherwise is a lesson in the world of the dimwitted.

I personally no longer will have anything to do with this crowd (i.e., the so-called “smart crowd” of the mainstream business/financial media) other than stand from afar and laugh.

And laugh I will, and am.

I have argued over the years that “I have been wrong for all the right reasons” when trying to reconcile what I (and others) have been explaining against the backdrop of what appeared to be a relentless upward trajectory of said markets.

We said without central bank intervention – it all falls apart. If the central banks intervene? It will keep working till one day it won’t. But that’s what I’ve also described as “The Dirty Harry market” i.e., “Do you feel lucky?”

All I’ll say now again is, repeat my aforementioned question, for that’s all that is standing between you, your money, retirement and more.

Yes, that’s it. I’m no financial advisor or rocket scientist, but it doesn’t take either to understand what these “markets” have now become. That is – if you are willing to actually look, that’s the key.

At the beginning of 2018 Lady Luck seemed to be smiling bright – then the Fed began normalizing – then – it would seem luck was more casino based than from somewhere on high.

If not for a call from Cabo and a complete reversal of all prior statements, assessments and a full blow pulling-of-the-plug on any and all normalization processes by the Fed, these “markets” may have made 2007/08 look like a cake-walk in comparison. Here it is in picture form for those that need remembering. To wit:

(Image Source)

So again I ask: Do you feel lucky?

Again what you take away from the above is clearly up to you. And for those still believing in unicorns, rainbows, good earnings, fair valuations and more may I suggest you continue to watch, listen or read the mainstream business/financial media. For they’re continuing to lose viewers almost as fast as Rachel Maddow and others of her ilk and need your support before the advertisers that only pay per “thousand viewer” metrics look for greener pastures.

It may not be long before the “buzzer king” has to find another network’s credibility to destroy. But then again, everyone loves a circus, right? Right? I wonder if CNBC™ ever pondered that those C’s could someday represent circus and clowns? But I digress.

So to finish what many may call a form of rant (and I would get that) what this is all about is the changes that have been going on behind the scenes here on my own site and more. For when it comes to the world of capital markets and more I’ve pretty much said all I need to say, and in the end, have been proven to be more correct that nearly all off the so-called “smart crowd” across the media. Bar none.

Again, the de facto proof of all of this is the current situation made manifest in the “markets.” To those that want to think or argue otherwise? Personally I’m done, and will only say: Have yourself a ball thinking otherwise. I have no gumption to argue or try to convince you otherwise.

In other words: If you don’t get it by now? There’s nothing more to be said, and I’m personally done saying it myself.

Regardless of your thoughts when it comes to the website known as ZeroHedge, one thing has been proven without exceptions: those of us that have been fortunate enough to be included into its club have been shown that it was we that were on the right side of critical thinking – not the other way around as has been professed by its detractors.

I’ve pretty much been of the mindset throughout my life as expressed by Groucho Marx years ago (paraphrasing): “I don’t want to belong to any club that’ll have me as a member.”

However, with that said, when it comes to being able to call myself an alumni member, along with the others that have all argued and laid out our thoughts in earnest on ZeroHedge – and let the chips fall where they may – I can’t help but feel proud.

For in the end, regardless of how anyone wants to try and spin it (and try they are) that little “club” are the ones that have been vindicated and proven correct in the end. But the way it was proven is in the sweetest and best of all ironies. To wit:

It was proved via the “markets” making: New All Time Highs! – not doom and gloom.

Nothing more needs to be said. End of story.

© 2019 Mark St.Cyr

Two Very Different Notes

The first: To all those that celebrate or observe this day, from my family to yours Happy Easter!

The second: I have decided that the MYTR Broadcast™ will remain on hiatus for the remainder of April and will return on Wednesday, May 1st.

The reasons for this are too long and too many to discuss currently, but to try and make a long story short, we’ve been having issues with parts on both the back-end, as well as front, that have caused me true consternation.

Those of you that have been with me for some time know all too well, that if I can not get something in alignment of where I believe it should be, I will delay until, or at worst – jettison the entire en devour until it meets the idea or direction I envisioned for beginning it in the first place.

I have been at this form of a crossroads for weeks and needed to make a decision. I have since made it, however, such a decision required a bit more time to implement correctly, hence the delay – again.

Sorry, but it’s for very valid reasons that I’ve been wrestling with.

To reiterate, the decision made more sense and proved more valid the more I rumbled with it. I understand that many of you might be thinking”But you always say you shouldn’t wait till perfect, so why are you waiting?!”

I get it, but you also need to remember that all circumstances or issues should not (and some can not) be treated with the same mantra or metaphor just because it can seem to apply. However, you won’t hear that at most “motivational” seminars which is why so many get into so much trouble later down the road. But I digress.

There are times when you need to launch or ship when you’re not 100% ready. I’ve demonstrated that over, and over, and over again right here, now a decade hence. Remember, I’m quoted for the saying: If all you do is wait for perfection before doing, then perfectly waiting is all you’ll ever do.

This is not something regarding that. This is more existential in nature, not just a tweaking-of-things type exercise. It will all become apparent when the show returns.

Until that time I will still be posting articles to the site as always.

In addition you may/will observe certain items such as: widgets, menus, click-on buttons and more disappear and/or reappear as we continue revamping different items during this period.

May 1st is the now drop-dead relaunch date. Taking the additional week during this period allowed for other things to be changed with far greater ease, as well as further gremlin removal.

So with that said: It’s now Wednesday, May 1st for the MYTR Broadcast relaunch.

See you then.

© 2019 Mark St.Cyr

So Where Are We Now? Update

Since the “markets” are still levitating beginning with a relentless gap up every day I thought it only fitting to make my thoughts clear on what I thought about all this for those that want to know. The first is: “Have you changed your mind about the health of the “markets” during this incesant rally?”

My answer: Once again, no. At least not yet and here’s why…

Below is the markets as of this writing using an updated chart of the S&P500™ that I’ve been referencing. To wit:

(Chart Source)

As you can see the “market” has poked its head out of that box I’ve been alluding to for weeks. However, from a technical view both in terms of volume and more, this “market” appears to be running on less than fumes. And that is where the catalyst for any real potential backsliding lies. i.e., one wrong data point – and things can go awry quickly. Emphasis on very.

Unless the “markets” vault higher soon and by soon I mean in days, not weeks, for whatever the reason (great earnings report, real trade deal news, etc., etc.) the potential to peter-out here and get back within that highlighted area is where the focus should be. For if it does, then goes back through approaching that blue line? Again, that’s where things have the potential for creating havoc.

On the flip side: should the “markets” vault higher and get back within those lines I highlighted above? The potential for a melt up for “New, never before seen in human history highs” and I would then call my original observation void. But until that happens, my original calls for caution are still as valid as I’ve stated, if not even more so.

As always, we shall see.

© 2019 Mark St.Cyr

2019: Ayn Rand’s Last Laugh

Over the course of the last decade to say things “have changed” would be an understatement. In some respects when it comes to civility in public discourse, and just as important, business ethics, one would have to agree that both have been spiraling down the drain.

The reason? Central banks interventionism into the capital markets. For without it: socialistic thoughts and ideas die at the alter of affordability, literally.

I know, I can hear you through my monitors yelling “No it’s politics!” However, I would need to rebut that assertion with, “It’s the central banks that are allowing for the politics of the day, not the other way around.” Case in point:

Last week chairwoman Maxine Waters of the House Financial Services Committee began lambasting bank CEO’s appearing before her panel on what they were going to do about the current student loan crisis. The problem?

Banks haven’t been administering student loans since the government took over the entire student lending program in 2010. In other words, student loan debt has become the national plague it is because the government socialized it nearly a decade ago. You know what else started back about this time? Hint: rhymes with quantitative easing. (QE)

I both listen and talk regularly with many of today’s “indebted student class.” To be clear: I feel for them, I get it. However, with that said, what I do not allow is their “The government needs to ________ (fill in the blank)” responses.

All I have to do to make most heads explode when they begin talking about fairness, opportunities, business and other things is politely state, “You understand that your problem really is that you’re already living part of the socialist dream and you don’t like it. And now you’re arguing that in order to make it all “better” you want even more of what you already can’t stand. You do know that, right?” (This is the moment I wish I donned a poncho before hand.)

When I begin hearing things like “Then the government needs to forgive student debt!” I just respond: So what about not only your healthcare, but everyone else that you say should have it for free? You know it’s your student loan profits that are a designated source for paying for all this socialized healthcare (aka Obamacare). So if you don’t pay your loans, then it is you that is responsible for not allowing the funds needed. That’s why it was taken over in the first place, but you knew that, right? Right?”

But they don’t. And it’s fair to say, neither do those that are in charge of it all, either. It’s a perpetual game of “Who can show they know nothing quicker than the other?” So far, the most “educated” seem to be winning. AOC anyone?

But this isn’t some left vs right argument, for there’s just as much “brilliance” on both sides of the aisle. Need I remind anyone with a stock market nearing “never before seen in human history highs” that none other than Mr. Kudlow, Director of the National Economic Council, is calling for an immediate rate cut?

Which brings us right back to where it all began: The central bank perversion of everything.

It is now fact, not conjecture, that if the central banks don’t allow for the charade to continue – everything collapses. And I do mean: everything.

We heard year after year that the policy of central banks intervening was always just some form of “emergency measure.” A one time type thing, temporary, etc., etc., etc. We now know (via their own recent actions) that without them – it all falls apart.

As I have stated ad nauseam: There has never been a time in recent history that so much power has been allocated to a handful of unelected individuals since the time of kings. Think about that very carefully, for it is not hyperbole.

The capital markets, once considered the greatest achievement for capital formation, has been turned into a parasitical, front running, headline reading, algorithmic cesspool of black box operations for skimming and defrauding. Can you say IPO’s? But that’s just one of the “table games” in the now desolate space known as “The casino.” aka Wall Street et al.

Now, everybody wants in on “the action.” So now say hello to a little known theory called MMT (modern monetary theory.)

What is that you say? Well, let me make this as easy to understand as possible: QE for the masses. That’s really about it.

You’ll hear all kinds of “educated” dissertations made by some academic scholar or some Ph.D’ whatever. But what it basically comes down to is following Mr Ben Bernanke’s philosophy of “the courage to print, then print some more.” For this is where it began to be defended as “prudent monetary policy.”

Now it’s shown itself for the sham that it always was, just no one now dares admit it, hence the game of propping everything up ends and the small business pop-ups for pitch forks and torches begin to emerge in earnest.

Speaking of “pitch forks and torches.” Do you think this is just me arguing another exercise in hyperbole? I would say: think again.

Others are so nervous about the current situation that they have already began floating trial balloons for the possibility of the Fed buying equities (i.e. stocks) directly.

Think about that for a moment. If you think the competitive landscape via the public markets is already perverted, just imagine when (and I firmly believe it is closer to when, not if) the Fed will publicly declare the winners and losers further immortalizing already zombie-fied businesses.

Former Chair Janet (never another crisis in her lifetime) Yellen is already out stating how the Fed now needs to do more, otherwise… Hint: cross out “never” in prior sentence.

The current Fed has already jettisoned any and all credibility with its complete and utter reversal on policy. i.e., Policy hawks have been reduced to unison cooing market doves.

All their prior projections and summations for reading and understanding the economy have been reduced (at least to those with any critical thinking skills) to outright joking material far funnier than most late-night standup routines. Albeit that’s already a low bar. But I digress.

Add to this we now have the likes of former Wall Street tycoons like Ray Dalio coming out and trying to buy “pitch-fork and torch insurance” for $100 Million while staging events across the media to perform in-person mea culpas against capitalism. All I have to say about that is this:

Dear Mr. Dalio, you weren’t engaging in capitalism, you were making yourself rich via suckling at the teat of crony capitalism made possible via the Fed and its QE programs by employing a greater, far more efficient parasitical vehicle to engorge yourself ever the more. And may I give you a heads up: $100 Million and mea culpas aren’t going to do it when it comes to “pitch fork and torch” insurance. Gates and Buffett have already set that level at $Billions. And that might not be enough. Just sayin’

It’s also now fair to say that “the father” of all this current central bank interventionism is none other than someone who was once an Ayn Rand devotee, Alan Greenspan.

Mr. Greenspan used to hold true to the underlying principles of capitalism. Then he was appointed to the Federal Reserve – and jettisoned it all. We are now living with the legacy that he started. Not a capitalist one, no, for remember – he jettisoned that. Again, it was under his tutelage that many of the growing perversions of capitalism began.

Remember when he used to tout gold was money before he was appointed, then once in control of the Fed said it wasn’t? Now that he’s no longer on the Fed, guess what? Need I say it?

Ayn Rand is both a revered as well as reviled touchstone for many when we think of anyone for explaining the principles of what capitalism truly is.

Yet, with that said, there has been no one that has been proven more correct in their projections for the how’s and why’s for it than her.

If you read her body of work (which I have and still do) what you find is a blueprint for precisely what could be projected should just a “little bit of socialism” was allowed to enter the capitalist domain. i.e., it had the ability to kill it without haste should capitalism not be ardently and consistently defended.

But what has also been profoundly spot on is her assertions that it (socialism) would be fostered, germinate and then propagated from within the universities.

Many have brushed her warnings aside when convenient (e.g., Greenspan and others) but the issue now facing us is the fermented results of doing just that.

The problem now is that her “last laugh” for the rest of us…

Is no joking matter, to say the least.

© 2019 Mark St.Cyr

Needs A Lift

As of this writing. To wit:

(Chart Source)

And here is the latest example as to why when the financial crisis happened I made every effort to not only learn the “markets” but also to call bullsh#t where it was due. Again, to wit:

(Source: Jim Cramer giving his insight and advice for buying Lyft shares on CNBC™ via YouTube™)

You truly need to watch this clip, for that is where I pulled the above quotes from- all while remembering – this was when it was way up there.

As I have stated ad nauseam, he is the most dangerous person to anyone’s 401K. But he’s on TV so he must know what he’s talking about, right? But then again, what do I know.

© 2019 Mark St.Cyr

Addendum: I was sent the following soon after I posted the above via a colleague as to punctuate that it’s not like the aforementioned “expert” just happened to get caught on the wrong side in a “gee whizz” type scenario. So, once again, to wit:

(Source: Screen grab via interview)

Not Like I Haven’t Said This Before

I was reminded of this the other day via a friend in reference to one of my articles. It was made for me years ago by putting my words into animation. It still brings a laugh when I hear it which has now been years since, so I thought I’d put it up as to show it’s not like I haven’t been consistent over the years about my contempt for an industry that I myself occupy a glass home in.

So without further ado, here it is.

© 2019 Mark St.Cyr


(For those who say I just don’t get it…get this)

There has been no other topic that causes more derision against me than when I call bullocks against the so-called “tech” or “IPO” scene. The issue that has been fascinating over the years is just how vacant said criticism has proven out to be as the facts produce themselves with ever more clearer results. Today’s latest example (and latest producer of calls such as “You just don’t get tech!”) is none other than Lyft™.

For those of you that bought into all the hype, or worse, found out your “financial adviser” bought you in as to make sure you had the right amount of “growth stocks” in your portfolio. Now may be the time to look away, and you have my condolences.

Here’s a chart I showed in a prior article “Big Tech’s Latest IPO Shows It To Be The Pump and Dump Scheme Its Always Been” To wit:

And here you are (for now) as of this writing, again, to wit:

Then again, what do I know, right?

© 2019 Mark St.Cyr

Striking The Difference

Over the course of the last 10 years I have made the case (as well as instructed) that there are dramatic differences between the concepts for motivation, business excellence, strategy, tactics and a whole lot more dispensed by myself and others.

But over those years there has been some change in my focus.

The reasoning behind this was simple, as I’ve explained ad nauseam during this period: Throughout the initial gyrations of what is now known as “The Great Financial Crisis” I found myself in what should have been the most wondrous time that any hard working, committed to deeds over words individual expected, should they had been able to grasp one of the most elusive “brass rings” of any era.

That “ring” was the ability to retire at age 45.

It has been during this decade that my writings and more have morphed from what was my usual output of business centric themes, to the comings and goings of the financial world. i.e., Wall Street, central banks et al.

This was out of sheer necessity, for as I have stated, again, ad nauseam: I had retired, thought life was about to blossom further – and the financial crisis unfolded exposing most, if not all so-called “experts” or “gurus” as not just “empty suits” but some exposed as complete and total frauds. (Bernie Madoff anyone?)

Finding comprehensive, relevant and truthful insight or advice during this period via my own due diligence showed it was basically nonexistent. (need I remind you of Jim Cramer’s infamous insights on CNBC™ as just one example?)

But that was just the world known as finance. When it came to business, motivation and more, the fundamental argument I made to the former revealed itself even more during this latter period with the resumption of what is known as “Get Rich via ____________!(fill in the blank)” motivation seminars. Or “Retire Rich Using This Newest Undiscovered Trick” some so-called “Silicon Valley guru” newsletter advice dispensed.

They have shown to be complete and utter disasters. Remember getting rich in real estate seminars like Vancouver and others? Or how about getting rich in cryptos? Just to name a few.

If you were one of those that “bought in?” You have my condolences, but it’s not like I didn’t warn anyone. As a matter of fact, I was, by all simple metrics, one of the only one’s to openly say so and have those thoughts published.

On a side note: Here’s what’s taking place in Vancouver real estate today since my warnings. To wit:

In the City of Vancouver, British Columbia, in March, sales of detached houses fell 14% from March 2018, to merely 117 houses, down 50% from March 2017 and down 74% from March 2016, to the lowest number of sales since 1985, as the market has frozen up. Buyers and sellers are too far apart, and both sides have lost interest in a meeting of the minds.

(Source: Wolf Richter of Wolf Street™)

Here’s my warnings from that period, again, to wit:

So, let me make this statement right-off-the-bat: This isn’t a hit piece about either Tony, Suze, or The Expo. What I’m strictly relating my argument too is the phenom and psychology that reemerges with a vengeance during what is known as “the topping process.” aka “The late stages of a bubble mentality.”

This is the moment in time where generic, over simplified advice, that sounds so good (and too good) shouted too an adoring crowd  – should be taken as the siren, and clarion call to those who are diligent in preserving their wealth to buckle up, buckle down, and prepare in earnest. For once this show is over? “Over” is going to be something many of those attending these types of seminars are going to pray for – as in “Please make it stop!”

From my article “They’re Baaack! And why you should be worried – Very Worried”

I have argued that most, if not all, being spewed today, even when it came to those selling out arena sized venues, was nothing more than “happy talk.” And in today’s world following much of it could, or would, lead to disastrous results. I have been proven correct on these points over, and over, and over again during said period of years.

Yet, with the “markets” continuing to be held aloft via central banking interventionism, many still believe that “the road to riches” can still be found if they attend some multi-thousand $dollar seminar to either scream and yell in unison, or better yet, hug it out with whomever is sitting in the next seat. I believe the so-called (coughAltuchercough) “Silicon Valley V.C. investment guru” is on his third or fourth iteration (if not more) of “investment advice that can make millions!” since all the prior have since gone down the proverbial drain. e.g., cryptos, weed, again, just to name a few.

But don’t worry, I’m more than sure he’ll refund all those that aren’t satisfied with the results. After all, it’s not like he was charging thousands upon thousands of $dollars for said “advice,” right? Oh wait, right, sorry, but hey, I’m sure this time “it’s different,” right?

I know I’m painting with a broad brush here, but it is what it is. And I should know, for I myself can be classified as in said business. So it’s not as if I can’t see any glass as the saying goes.

But today is a different story. And these points must be made to clarify exactly where this site and my insights are going, and where everyone else is. The reason? There is great opportunity to be made for those willing to look at the reality of the situation and plan accordingly. While the exact opposite is true for those that still believe all the “happy talk.”

Today, this difference must be made between myself and others and allow for the proverbial chips to fall where they may, because if one doesn’t truly understand where we are in relationship to: monetary policies, central bank interventionism within the capital markets, how that effects the competitive nature of business dynamics and more? All the “happy talk” in the world is going to leave you positively miserable once the initial rush of the moment wears off. Or, making matters worse – to then receive the credit card bill bearing that seminar charge.

It’s been a remarkable 10 years since the initial post made here. Not only has it been well over a decade since my retirement, but I have grasped more “brass rings” during this period in genres that even those per se in the world of professional writing themselves may never accomplish. i.e., I have made headlines across the globe concerning business and finance, on the largest media sites barring none. And I have been, once again, proven more correct on my arguments than most of the so-called “smart crowd” paraded across that very mainstream business/financial media. Again: bar none.

The reason why I’m including the above is to demonstrate I’m far from some one-trick-pony like so many others are. Or said differently: I’m not someone that just read someone’s book and has now written a book so you can now buy their thoughts on what they read.

Yes, I’m sorry to say, that about sums up most. Need I remind you of the plethora of 26 year-old’s out there now selling “life coaching skills?” But I digress.

As both this site, along with my focus, now changes. I felt it was necessary to begin laying the ground of what this site stands for – and – what it does not.

During this transformation period as the MYTR Broadcast is revamping and steering its priorities back more inline to focus away from the financial markets and back toward business pragmatics. I’ve been having conversations with friends and collegues on how best to try and convey, or to get this point across in a rather distinct fashion where ambiguity would be less of a concern, such as branding and other subjects.

One of my friends suggested “Maybe you can do something using a music reference because sometimes music conveys a stronger message far more than just its words.” I dismissed this out of hand with the remark of ” What, you want me to write and produce a song?! Are you f’n kidding me?!!” As always we all laughed and it fell by the wayside. And then…

During my usual run I was listening to music when a song came on which I have been listening to quite a bit (for I purchased the album a while back) when suddenly it hit me and thought “Imagine if I did that, but how?” And then on Friday I saw precisely the set up for that “how” on Zero Hedge™ and it hit me as “That’s how!” So here it is…

For those that want to continue to listen and believe all the “happy talk” to explain why the “markets” are up, how “getting rich” is just one credit card purchase away, or how you too can be a “real estate/financial guru” if you can just get together with enough people in a single arena and chant and hug each other. This video is not only for you, but pretty much sums up how you’re going on about life. Just click on image to hear and play on YouTube™. To wit:

(Source: Everything Is Awesome!!! from The Lego® Movie via YouTube)

And now, below, is what people like myself, and if I dare to say: those of us here that are busy doing the real work that actually brings those dreams into reality, think when we watch and listen to said “believers” of above and what is being proselytized today. To wit:

(Warning: explicit language, but then again, if you’ve been to one of the aforementioned seminars, dropping f-bombs from the stage still seems to be in fashion. Again, just click on image to hear and play on YouTube and might I suggest turning the volume up.

(Source: Happy Song – Bring Me The Horizon via Vevo™ on YouTube)

And there you have it. You’re either in one camp or the other, but at least the above shows the clearest example of the differences.

Personally, I feel that I’m in very good company, and that would be in the company of you dear reader, and I look forward to us eating everyone else’s lunch in the coming future – as they search blindly for any remaining crumbs.

Let’s call this the “plant the flag” moment for this site for the next 10 years. For as I started this all once before, now 10 years ago, I then used a music reference to kick things off, and look how far we’ve come since. That reference was from one of my favorite songs and band Pink Floyd, Wish You Were Here, from the same titled album, again, to wit:

“Did they get you to trade your heroes for ghosts?…. Hot ashes for Trees?…Hot air for a cool breeze?

Cold comfort for change?….and did you exchange…a walk on part in the war…..for a lead role in a cage?”

(Source: Pink Floyd, Wish You Were Here, 1975 Capital Records™)

Hope you decide to join in. Again!

© 2019 Mark St.Cyr

So Where Are We Now?

As is the usual, when the “markets” are turbulent, I hear from a myriad of people I usually don’t hear from asking for my opinion on the current happenings. When the “markets” are rocketing higher, or seem to be in some form of rocket-ride status, I know the opposite will be true, as in: when my phone doesn’t ring – I know it’s them. But that’s life and I both get it, and I’m not offended. It’s the way of the world.

However, this makes the perfect time to put what I like to say: a few things in context. And with that I submit to you the following as a counter balance of all the so-called “insights” I’ve been watching across the mainstream business/financial outlets. To wit:

(Chart Source)

The above is of the S&P 500™ futures as I write this represented by daily bars/candles. As you can clearly see, you are now currently back to where the “markets” started some 14 months ago in January of 2018 when the now Chair, Mr Powell first took the helm of the Fed and implemented his former boss, Ms. Yellen’s schedule for balance sheet normalization and promise for raising interest rates.On the above I have annotated the peaks and falls and the Fed’s subsequent responses to each. To be clear: every peak and trough extreme was reversed via some Fed induced cause. i.e., interest rate hike, balance sheet tightening, or promise, or insinuation to pause, slow, rectify, etc., etc., etc. Although the summation is generalized (i.e., in using a 14 month chart) I had written at those times, in detail, the cause and correlation, again, in real time during said periods. So it’s not like I’m just trying to make an invalid assumption of timing. (As always, they’re in the archives for those wishing to validate.)

What the above highlights are two very ominous implications. The first: once again the “markets” have proven that without central bank interventionism – they can’t function as intended. The second: the Fed had to completely capitulate to the point of sacrificing its credibility to the former – and – the “markets” now rest precisely where they began and the Fed. can’t do anything about it unless they both cut interest rates and/or implement another QE program.

This is not an insignificant dilemma by any stretch of the imagination, that is, unless you’re one of those touting “Everything is great, just buy, buy, buy!” snake-oil sellers across the financial media landscape. But I digress.

The other question is this: So now what?

Here’s another chart of the same only a bit longer in time duration that covers when the former Chair, Ms. Yellen tried to begin the process of interest rate hikes only. For those that don’t remember? The “markets” then experienced near-death moves that were supposedly “never going to happen” when listening to both the Fed, as well as most across the mainstream business/financial media. Hint: remember when the “Bullard Bottom” was born? Again, to wit:

(Chart Source)

To reiterate, the only reason why the “markets” ramped to where we are currently (my conjecture, of course) was due to the tax cut proposals and subsequent passing. So now here they are at the very top, once again, and the Fed and other central banks have already capitulated on everything they called for prior.

Think about this very carefully for the implications are absolutely monumental should something suddenly go awry.

“What could go awry?” you ask? Great question here’s just a few:

  • Jobs report portends something ominous.
  • Trade deal is seen as unconvincing.
  • Earnings report season comes in far weaker than anticipated.
  • Brexit ends badly.

I could go on, but any one of the above is enough by its own. And all are 50/50 chances at best. Again: at best!

Then there are more of what are known as “The technicals” when looking across these “markets.” As I’ve stated prior: the uncanny resemblance of so many similar patterns developing across so many asset classes itself portends that there’s true danger lurking.

Since I made and have since been chronicling this argument I used the S&P 500 futures as the current avatar for them. As I type this today nothing has changed from my first observation except for how much time has passed. But the time passing is not invaliding my first interpretation, but rather – is enforcing it.

Here is that chart updated to this morning before the cash market opens. To wit:

(Chart Source)

As always, we shall see.

© 2019 Mark St.Cyr

You Want Answers?

I was questioned this morning on my thoughts for the rise in the “markets” since December. Here’s my response. To wit:

If you dare print any currency note, then try to buy an asset, you would be immediately arrested and thrown in jail for a little thing called counterfeiting. When a central bank does the same they are rewarded with both keeping said assets and publicly defended with accolades for doing so under the guise of “prudent monetary policy.

Me, circa 2010

“Now everyone had better hope it doesn’t fail: again. For if it does, the central banks (e.g., ECB, Federal Reserve et al.) have now publicly declared that it is they, via their now abrupt reversal of policies, which now controls the capital markets.

That’s all you need to know and anyone pretending it’s something different is a moron.”

Usually there’s a 24hr embargo on responses before one can re-use them, but I don’t agree to any unless I’m assured they will be used before hand in the first place. Other wise, why ask me? However, let’s say I’m pretty confident none will use it, so here it is.

© 2019 Mark St.Cyr