Prepare For Friday

On today’s show (Thursday’s) I touched upon a few things that fall under a much bigger subject matter. I realized by the time I ended I had barely begun. So, I have decided rather than touch around the edges as I did today, that Friday’s show will be a dedicated deep dive into understanding probably the most important subject matter of our time as business leaders. Let’s call it a “mark your calendar” type show, which will help showcase the basis of what the MYTR Broadcast encapsulates. It is exactly this subject matter and the ability for that deep dive we went on hiatus in the first place.

See you then.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

F.T.T.W.T.K. Update

(For Those That Want To Know)

On yesterday’s show (Monday’s) I gave a scenario that one needed to be cognizant of a few things. The first: Earnings season begins in earnest. The second: You need to take into account the psychology of many that are both nervous of this fact, along with getting back to even and how they may handle it. i.e., They may start asking for their money back, regardless of what “gains” may be told/sold.

Below is a chart using yesterday’s price movements during the day session in the U.S. I’ve notated it to allow it to speak for itself. What happens next is anyone’s guess. However, what I will state is the following – all this enhances my arguments to my running commentary. And for those that aren’t that adept at technical analysis: These, once again, are almost too perfect text book examples. The issue here is that if they actually foretell or portend what’s in store for the “markets” going forward. All I’ll say to that is: It ain’t good.

As always, we shall see. Here’s the latest. To wit:

(Chart Source)

Note: Although there are disclaimers and statements everywhere on this site, and I state it routinely on my show as to make sure no one ever gets confused nor conflates my analysis and commentary to mean something that it is not. I feel compelled, once again, that it must be repeated because of sudden surges in web traffic:

For anyone that is thinking, or using any of my commentary in any way, shape, manner or form as “trading tips” or anything of the sort. They are not, nor are they to be assumed as such in any possible way. See the disclaimers or re-read the “About this site” documentation. For that is not what I do here.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Riddle Me This…

As asked in the voice by my favorite Riddler, Frank Gorshin of the Batman® franchise. “Riddle me this!”

As sensitive (as in, existential) as these “markets” are to anything to do with Federal Reserve largess. Why would a voting member (Dallas Fed. President Robert Kaplan) of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC (the committee that deals out that very largess) suddenly state publicly the day before one of the most heavily anticipated earnings report with a backdrop of metrics that dwarf some depression era comparables say the following. To wit:

 …emergency lending facilities launched by the central bank were necessary to support market function, “but they won’t be left in place indefinitely.”

Since the mouthing of that statement said “markets” have gone into free-fall. Tesla™ itself has taken a near 18% pop on price to near $1800 and as of this writing has wiped out that entire gain flirting with going red on the day.

Again, I ask: Why?

Unless?

Think about it.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

F.T.W.S.I.J.D.G.I.G.T.

(For Those Who Say I Just Don’t Get It…Get This)

From my note “Perspective” only a few days ago. To wit:

To all those that have argued with me that I “…just don’t get it!” when it comes to the capital markets and what they’ve become. All I’ll ask of you is this:

Tesla™ today became the largest, repeat, the largest automaker per market cap in the world. Its share priced rocketed (once again, pun intended) to $1,130.00 per share giving it a market cap of $210BILLION surpassing the former #1 known as Toyota™ at around $202billion.

Tesla is for all intents and purposes a boutique car manufacturer with a global market share of just 0.5%. And yes, that’s one half of one percent and is not a typo.

Please explain. It’s OK, I’ll listen. But I can’t promise you I won’t laugh. Just to be clear.

Welcome to today’s “picture” for laughter… (NOTE: I have added an updated chart at the bottom to show the close of today’s session. It speaks for itself)

(Chart Source)

And for those that may be a bit math challenged, let me put it this way…

The entire globe is in a car maker, market, for both new and used – market collapse. 50 million people in the U.S. alone are now unemployed. China is even in worse shape in regards to car sales.

And Tesla™ market cap has increased over the past few days by some $65 BILLION. e.g, as of this writing to $275,890,000,000.00 (BILLION.)

Makes perfect sense, that is, if you have a PhD and teach “business” in one of today’s Ivy League.

It would be laugh down hysterical if it wasn’t such a tragedy that will end far worse than badly for many.

Updated chart, to wit:

(Chart Source)

More perspective: Tesla is now larger than Ford™, GM™, BMW™, Diamler™ and Volkswagen™.

And just to clarify: Not bigger than any of them, but rather, bigger than all of them combined.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Footnote: These “FTWSIJDGIGT” articles came into being when many of the topics I had opined on over the years were being openly criticized for “having no clue”. Yet, over the years, these insights came back around showing maybe I knew a little bit more than some were giving me credit for. It was my way of tongue-in-cheek as to not use the old “I told you so” analogy. I’m saying this purely for the benefit of those who may be new or reading here for the first time. I never wanted or want to seem like I’m doing the “Nah, nah, nah, nah, nah” type of response to my detractors. I’d rather let the chips fall – good or bad – and let readers decide the credibility of either side. Occasionally however, there are and have been times they do need to be pointed out, which is why these now have taken on a life of their own. (i.e., something of significance per se that may have a direct impact on one’s business etc., etc.) And readers, colleagues, and others have requested their continuance.

F.T.T.W.T.K. Update

(For Those That Want To Know)

This is just the latest in my ongoing commentary, but is really an update to the same chart I put up last Thursday under the title “Not a good look.”

It would appear the “markets” on Monday drew an eighth card and it was (wait for it…) yes another Ace back to back to once again beat the odds of .000000000000000001% chances of it happening, clearing away those dreams of yachting, Lambo’s in every color and more.

Just like it’s done every time before. I mean, really: What are the odds?

Yet, once again, it doesn’t matter, right? Stocks only go up, right? Why even try to complicate things with thinking, let alone analyzing anything to the contrary, right? Right?!

Fair point. However…

As I like to use the blackjack table analogy, I also use another people seem to grasp, that is: The high diving board. i.e., It’s one thing to dive off the five meter platform, it’s quite another to be goaded to climb up to the 10 meter and then look down. I say again: Right?

That is, once again, precisely where we are as evidenced by the following. To wit:

(Chart Source)

The above is of the S&P 500™ as of the close today. I have made a few adjustments and added a few notations that are self explanatory. It is the same as the prior and the implications are also the same, just the difference of flopping from a 10 meter height, rather than a five.

Will it? Won’t it? No one knows. Maybe it’s “Triple Lindy” time? Either way, this is something to watch for.

As always, we shall see.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Just A Thought

I was asked for my thoughts on the current state of markets and economic forecasting. Here was my answer…

“It has become obvious to me that the role of Ivy League based business forecasting and insight today is to make fundamental business decisions based via astrological signalling look respectable in comparison.”

Here’s something else I know…

They’ll never print the above.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

A Day Like No Other

To those those that celebrate this day with reverence, Happy 4th! To think both this day and document would ever become a bone of contention in the country it founded should prove, without a doubt, the warning said by one of its architects, Benjamin Franklin when he was asked what type of government they delivered: A republic, or a monarchy? His response was “A republic, if you can keep it.” Never in many’s wildest thoughts did they ever feel the need to contemplate Mr. Franklin’s warning in real time. Yet, here we are.

Not A Good Look

For those that came to the site last night and looked at my musings only to look at the opening hours of the day session here in the U.S. and mused, “Once again, wrong! Stocks only go up, and the Fed’s got my back!!” (and you know who you are) I offer you another “picture” to clarify yesterday’s. To wit:

As I have stated many times, and I went over again today on the show, how there are times when what you think is the resolution of one pattern, it turns out to be false signalling that wasn’t a nullification of the process, but just a moment too early in that process.

Today is a text book, live example, of precisely that.

Today’s “market” action not only didn’t nullify my interpretations from yesterday, but rather – solidified them in a larger process. And for those that don’t fully comprehend what I’m saying, or think I’m being a little coy, let me say it this way…

The above puts a larger stamp on the idea the “markets” are weakening – not strengthening.

Everything I suggested yesterday now not only stands, but stands on far surer footing. Doesn’t mean I’m right, but in the context where I’ve used the analogy of you’re sitting at a blackjack table holding a king and a 10, and the dealer is sitting on 19 made up from pulling six cards and needs to pull one more, where nine times out of the last 10 they’ve pulled a two of clubs to ruin your yachting dreams. This time – they’ve just drew an Ace and have to draw one more.

That’s where we are.

As always, we have to wait and see what comes next.

I’ll just reiterate, the above is not a good look for what one would want to see if they thought yesterday’s possible implications were nullified at the open. Especially going into a holiday weekend, when all other markets globally remain open.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Perspective

I’m just going to say one thing, then I’ll let a “picture” speak for itself.

The first…

To all those that have argued with me that I “…just don’t get it!” when it comes to the capital markets and what they’ve become. All I’ll ask of you is this:

Tesla™ today became the largest, repeat, the largest automaker per market cap in the world. Its share priced rocketed (once again, pun intended) to $1,130.00 per share giving it a market cap of $210BILLION surpassing the former #1 known as Toyota™ at around $202billion.

Tesla is for all intents and purposes a boutique car manufacturer with a global market share of just 0.5%. And yes, that’s one half of one percent and is not a typo.

Please explain. It’s OK, I’ll listen. But I can’t promise you I won’t laugh. Just to be clear.

Toyota manufactures millions of cars per year, operates manufacturing plants around the globe and does so in what many still regard as a quality control operation second to none. All done under the auspices of making and delivering profitable returns. Tesla on the other hand makes its cars not under any auspices, but in actuality under a circus tent in California. Its quality control is all but non-existent as shown by reports and customer complaints. Oh yeah – and they basically don’t make money. i.e., they are a notorious cash-burn enterprise.

However, if you’d rather hear how all of this makes perfect “business” sense – all you need to do is plop down about $75K a year to hear it form one of the “cool kids” teaching business and marketing at your Ivy League comedy club school of choice. Or watch any of them when they’re on any mainstream business/financial shows. It’s all the same f’n joke insight.

Now for the second…

I just want to put a “picture” to what I was talking about on today’s show, in regards to, what I was watching as to illustrate in more detail when I said: the “markets” moves as I’m watching currently are not doing anything that I wouldn’t expect it to be doing from a technical perspective. i.e., I made the reference there was probably going to be a gap fill and that would probably (again, it’s a probable not definitive) peter out at about the levels that it did.

So here’s that chart with a few notations that speak for themselves. Think of it as just being the latest addition to my ongoing commentary. To wit:

(Chart Source)

I find it a bit surreal with Tesla making a complete and utter mockery out of what was once known as “the bastion of capital markets,” concomitantly as the NASDAQ™ does the same making new, never before seen in human history highs as we await to hear tomorrow whether it’ll be 20, 25, 30 or more millions of people remaining unemployed, while we get even more calls for another round of lock-downs.

Something’s gonna give.

When? No one knows. Yet, if you look at the chart I posted above?

It may have just begun.

As always, we shall see.

© Mark St.Cyr

F.T.T.W.T.K. Update

(For Those That Want To Know)

I thought an update to my ongoing commentary was necessary after a discussion I had with a colleague today. That discussion revolved around the idea that “This market sure is strong, are you still of the same view?” to which I responded: “By ‘strong’ you mean what? Because from my view it is anything but.” To which I then proceeded to explain what I was watching and can be expressed by using a chart of today’s “market” including today’s price action.

However, before I do, let’s use both a prior and latest I used a few weeks back for some context, first. To wit:

(Chart Source)

The above depicts where I first thought something would resolve only to nullify that presumption, then resolve precisely in the same manner only from a larger and higher point. Remember the “Diving board” analogy I used? So it begs the question: Where are we now? So to answer that, let’s do another “picture” shall we? Again, to wit:

(Chart Source)

The above is the same as the prior only notated, including today’s close. The issue here is, to address my colleagues assumption of “This market appears strong.” I would say, from a purely technical view – it looks anything but.

As a matter of fact, as one an clearly see, we are a lot closer to that first “Your Spidey senses should be going off!” than we were over a month ago when I first pointed it out. That area is noted above as “This is the area…” for those that haven’t been following along since I started this running commentary.

So there you have it. Will it, wont it? No one knows. But what I do know is this…

It’s getting far closer to where I said it would – then someone who said “We’re never going to see it again.” should be feeling comfortable.

As always, we shall see. Although that may be a lot closer than far too many ever dreamed possible.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr