One Of These Things…

I only have two things to say, and both are brief. One is to be taken seriously. The other? It’s a farcical joke so incomprehensible to anything resembling understood reality, one can no longer put it into words. The only thing one can do is laugh.

First the serious…

The MYTR Broadcast comes out of hiatus beginning next week. There are a few changes that you’ll need to be aware of as to access it, so stay tuned for details over the coming days.

Now the farcical…

Today the “markets” lurched higher, “So what’s new or funny about that?” I can hear you saying through my monitors. Great questions and it is this…

As the “markets” lurched higher today to close within a hares breath of its all time, never before seen in human history highs in February (as far as a closing high, it matched that). The National Bureau of Economic Research has determined (wait for it…): The U.S. entered into recession in February.

Here’s a snippet from the report. I encourage you to read the full text which can be found (here.)

This series plateaued from December 2019 through February 2020, and then fell steeply from February to March. Because both series measure employment during the week or pay period containing the 12th of the month, they understate the collapse of employment during the second half of March, as indicated by unprecedented levels of new claims for unemployment insurance. The committee concluded that both employment series were thus consistent with a business cycle peak in February.

NBER Report Monday, June 8, 2020

 

Here’s the short of what the above implies: Record high stock markets and recessions don’t go together unless something’s wrong, as in, very wrong. No matter what they teach at any of the Ivy League business schools.

Sooner or later something is going to go from cracking – to outright breaking. And when it does it won’t be anything to laugh about. No matter what some Ph.D comedian business professor says. Period.

Oh, and I almost forgot: The Federal Reserve begins its two day conclave beginning tomorrow. So borrowing the words from that intellectual luminary of yesteryear known to all as Alfred E. Neuman…

“What, me worry?”

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Do With It What You May

It would seem over the last few weeks my efforts to no longer concentrate on the “markets” has done nothing but illicit more commentary than even I thought I would. However, there is a very explicit reason why I have and it is this…

The implications of what may be becoming more evident by the day are enormous, and have the potential, for making the February spike down look like a picnic. That’s not hyperbole.

In my running commentary I’ve been basically using the same chart over and over again with differing notations, technical pattern descriptions and more. What one needs to understand and take to heart in my analysis is this:

Although the “markets” have seemed to beat the odds at every turn (remember the “two of clubs?”). What it hasn’t done is negate the overall premise. What it has done (as I’ve explained numerous times over the years) is with every near text book pattern it negates – it moves on to complete the same circumstances only in a much larger pattern. Here’s an example…

If one pattern suggested a 10 point drop and was negated. The next pattern that formed awaiting results is one that would suggest a 100 point drop, and so on and so on. Then there’s the one that suggests a 1000 point drop and it seems to be negated at every turn. But “seems” is the operative word.

There are multiple points within the exact same pattern that get bowled over, but what happens is it just sets itself up for another try at a different level. Think of it in the way you would apply the idea of “Russian roulette.” Just because you got a “click” doesn’t mean you’re in the clear by a long-shot.

We are at this period once again.

As I’ve been describing in my commentary, first it was this Fibonacci level, then this one, then another, then a gap fill, then a higher one, then a gap fill and big Fib level. You get the idea, on and on, and on, for what has been seeming like forever. But again – the premise of what this technical patterning was implying has yet to be resolved – only prior possibilities have. i.e., Think “click,” “click,” “click.”

Again, I’m only marking these latest moves because the implications are that immense. If you do not fully understand where we are in respect to the capital markets, especially in the current political climate with protests, rioting and more. You are underestimating the possible consequences.

Currently everyone across the mainstream media, as well as business/financial media, is giving some form of “all clear” signalling when it comes to these “markets” as if the worst is behind us. I believe there is nothing more further from the truth than that hypothesis. And it’s the people that are thinking just that whom may suddenly find themselves in far worse circumstances than they ever imagined.

I believe you are here because you do not plan on being one of them, and it is with that overview and respect for your intelligence I continue my commentary.

So now with all that said let me use a chart I took of the S&P 500™ at the close of the day session Friday. To wit:

(Chart Source)

The above chart shows two features of what I’ve been trying to express. The first…

It’s the exact same pattern as all the prior except we are now at a higher level. The second…

The exact manner in which this pattern calls for the highest odds to resolve is, once again, playing out in text book fashion. It’s so near picture perfect I can only, once again, repeat myself and say: uncanny.

I’ll finish using one last analogy to describe the above: Think of the prior as walking up the three meter diving board and all your friends sitting around the pool convince you to go higher to the five meter platform. You were fully confident at three, and even though you are only two meters higher?

It looks and feels a heck of lot scarier if you make a mistake there, does it not?

That’s where we currently are, and as always, we shall see.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

The Two of Clubs In Spades

Let me just say it this way: Folks – you can’t make this stuff up.

Who knew this much bad e.g., Riots, burning of stores, looting, record joblessness, etc., etc., etc. would be so much good for the “markets.” As I type this the Dow™ is up 4% and the S&P 500™ over 3%. We are now within spitting distance (the NASDAQ™ already has) of the “never before seen in human history highs.”

Dear readers, when I’ve said, “They’ll be looking back at us in history and wonder, ‘WTF were these people thinking?!'” I’ll leave them to their own conclusions to wrestle with, because theirs will be just as insightful as mine. i.e, Who knows, because I surely don’t. We’re now so past crazy even Carl Jung would be lost for words.

I will say one thing: I’m starting to get quite a few notes and calls from different people I know that are now completely and utterly mind-boggled. Here’s just one example of a conversation I just finished that propelled this missive…

Me: Hey, what’s up?

Them: The markets! I was just listening to an interview with one of those “Wall Street insiders” that’s the head of something at one of the big investment banks, and I heard him say “The reason why the market is up is because it appears more like a V shaped recovery than something else.”

OK, fine. But the employment report just came in saying we’re at 13% unemployment, and that’s if that figure is even accurate. How can we be near record highs with 13% unemployment? And, and, annnnnnnddddddd we’re still suppose to be under Covid lock-down restrictions?

Me: I’m sorry, I thought you told me I was the one not “getting it” the more the markets rose?

Them: Well yeah, but this is different!!

Me: All righty then. Can we change the subject?

Them: What do you mean? Isn’t this important too you? I thought this was one of the areas you specialized in?

Me: Yes, it was. But as I told you previously – there has not been a real market for quite sometime. You’re just realizing it today because now you can no longer believe your own eyes. Welcome to the reality of now seeing the crazy.

Them: F###!!!

And there you have it. Now you know why I/we changed the format of the broadcast. There’s no more reasoning that can be made for trying to reason out the crazy. It is what it is – till it isn’t.

Simple as that.

On a side note, for those not getting the implied joke of the headline, you can read that (here.)

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Two Points Worth Mentioning

I just wanted to share follow-ups to two of the most asked questions I’ve received over the past few weeks. The first…

In regards to the MYTR Broadcast™: Yes, it is getting very close to its relaunch window, which may be as soon as next week, if all goes according to plan. I’ll have more to say and announce over the coming days. Personally, I couldn’t be happier with the tweaks we’ve made to its format. So, once again – stay tuned for more details.

As to the second…

Below is the latest “picture” as they call them in Silicon Valley of the S&P 500™ as of today’s day session close. It’s basically just another iteration of the same one I’ve been using in my ongoing commentary, only more simplified.

But first: To reiterate the point I said from a few days ago…

“…that little box with the arrows pointing to it is where I’m watching for all the action.”

Here’s the “picture” I used to make that point. To wit:

(Chart Source)

 

“So what has transpired since then?” you ask. Great question, below is that simplified “picture” I alluded to at the beginning, again, to wit:

(Chart Source)

 

Just so there’s no confusion – that little “blue box” is in the exact same place as the one first pictured. I just made it a bit more defined.

As you can see the price action I was looking for to satisfy some of the parameters that would signify the interpretations this signalling mandated have not just been fulfilled, but as I’ve been saying over, and over, and over again: Sometimes, the way these patterns have been playing out, with their sheer adherence to near picture perfect, text book display, is down right uncanny. This one, once again, is of that nature.

To say it differently: the above is like being at the blackjack table holding two kings and the dealer is sitting on six cards totaling 19, there’s so many chips on the table the pit boss has decided to watch every card drawn. You can just about smell the money you’re going to cash in at the cashier window as soon as the dealer takes the next card i.e., it’s all but a 99.9% done deal. Your wife, girlfriend, significant other, date you just met et. al. is so convinced they’re calling the hotel gift shop to ask how late they stay open. Yeah, it’s that kind of moment. And then…

The dealer flips over a two of clubs for 21 made up from seven cards. What are the odds, right? Here let me help: 0.1%. Call it close enough math when you thought it was all but a done deal at 99.9%. Remember – odds are the tool of choice for fulfilling Mr. Murphy’s Law.

Well, that is precisely what this “market” has done over, and over, and over (did I say “over?”) again to the most highly probable outcomes of applied technical analysis. It would seem the advent of machines (aka “algorithmic bots”) fueled by an endless supply of “free money” (aka Fed QE) has given more than a considerable edge to HFT (high frequency traders) powerhouses of Wall Street to foil most.

But then again, there are those times that allow for just the tiniest of windows to open, and one catches a glimpse of what even the “fastest dealers” on Wall Street might miss.

As always, we shall see.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

 

F.T.T.W.T.K. Update

(For those that want to know)

Because so many keep asking me my thoughts I’ll just keep updating my ongoing conversation and observations as things seem to strike me as material. Today, as the “markets” closed, it appeared to be sending another material signal, hence this update. To wit:

(Chart Source)

 

The above represents the S&P 500™ as of the cash close (aka day session) today. Once again at the end of the day, with 10 minutes to go, the “markets” bolted out-of-the-blue nearly 10 handles. These types of moves have a significance for watching for when, where, and why they are happening, as I’ll explain.

The “when” aspect is the timing. This move happened because of a phenom known as MOC (market on close) orders. This is a re-balancing type of thing that on most occasions takes place without anyone paying it a second thought. However, the reason why it makes itself a phenom to notice today is because, this sudden movement known as a “panic bid” coming in and spiking said “markets” signifies just how few participants are actually in these markets. Or, said differently – no one is here. i.e., It’s a ghost town of a Potemkin Village.

The “where” aspect has to do with both “closing a gap” and within spitting distance of another very highly watched Fibonacci Level i.e., 78.6% aka “the line in the sand for Fibo watching.”

The “why” aspect, in my opinion, that marks something to notice is via the technical. i.e., It’s coming precisely at a point where a very highly watched technical pattern is ending with movements that the pattern itself calls for to terminate. i.e., A market pop up – then a falling back.

The wildcard in all this begins stating now until Friday 8:30am ET. The reason?

Positioning for the June employment report. And it has the potential to be a real doozy, shattering records that may just cause everyone (yes, even the BTFD’ers) to take a pause and ask themselves “Is this ‘market’ really fairly priced?”

As always, we shall see. But as I noted on the above, that little box with the arrows pointing to it is where I’m watching for all the action.

In retrospect the above is basically the same chart that I’ve been using all along, I’ve just tweaked a few things to coincide with the current gyrations. But the overall premise and price levels still hold from prior. i.e., The “market” doesn’t need to do anything different to have the same outcome of what I’ve been suggesting. This just may explain why it’s taken a bit longer than expected. Nothing more.

Once again, we shall see. But I believe it may be sooner, as in much sooner, rather than later.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

When Too Much Good Looks Bad

I received the most interesting note from a colleague last night in relation to the current civil unrest and the “markets.” I’m going to paraphrase and condense what was said. To wit:

I know you’ve been calling these markets “markets” (meaning in name only) for quite some time, and I understood where you were coming from. But I really didn’t buy into it, because I could rationalize reasons for why it was doing what it was doing. i.e., Forward looking P/E ratios, sales and more. Then came the Corona-virus and all it brought forth, and down we went. But again, I thought it was overdone and the bounce back was more than justified.

But now with the civil unrest, rioting, looting, burning of businesses and storefronts, limits on business for occupancy, code restrictions and more, I started having a hard time explaining to myself why and how the markets still go up every single day! Now we are possibly going under some form of martial law with military patrolling the street and the markets still don’t even blink.

Now as I look at these markets in the light of today’s rage I am starting to become terrified. Every day these markets go up I feel they are like a signal fire to protest even more, fueling the “The rich keep getting richer, even as the world burns!” Nothing makes sense any more. It’s all just nuts!

He’s absolutely correct that when looking at these “markets” one can no longer truly give a proper reason for their elevation, and many professionals themselves have stopped trying. (Although that hasn’t stopped the mainstream business/financial media, but I digress.)

What you now have on vivid display is a very real juxtaposition for true analysis. In other words: If you still believe these markets are anything other than a Central Bank money printing casino creation, that has nothing to do with economic underpinnings or fundamental financial underpinnings – then you’re as delusional as many of these news programs calling much of this anarchy and looting “protests.”

The “markets” are displaying what is now to be taken as complete chaos in regards to fundamental business principles. And at some point it too will burn itself down.

It can not go on this way indefinitely. Something will break. It’s just a matter of when, not if. And the most concerning issue you need to take note of is this:

Just as the current civil unrest is boiling over. No one wanted to address it until there was a utter tragedy that was undeniable; couldn’t be explained away; couldn’t be defended; was self-evident to any sane person. Then, the inevitable result of that built up pressure cooker breaks loose with disastrous consequences. Because now everyone “sees.”

The markets continuing to rise against this current backdrop is doing much the same. Remember: you now “see.”

What happens when everyone else does too?

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

F.T.T.W.T.K. Update

(For Those That Want To Know)

Below is a chart of the S&P 500™ as of the close of today’s day session. It’s the latest in my ongoing commentary that you can find (here). The chart is pretty self explanatory. i.e., I’ve notated it and there really isn’t much else to say. The “markets” will have the last word regardless.

However, with that said, today was interesting looking from a technical perspective, because as many times prior, one pattern that appeared text book to resolve one way, with the smallest of odds that it could go the other, is precisely what has happened over, and over again as of late. Or said differently: the signals have all been fake outs. But that’s why there are odds to begin with. Always remember that.

So with the above for context, what has been happening is a phenom I’ve tried to explain many times: The fake outs haven’t reversed or nullified the original interpretation, they’ve all gone on to form the same signals only in a larger context. This today seems to be doing it once again.

Now I know there are some of you out there thinking “Oh, you’re trying to have it both ways!” And it’s a fair point, but its points like that and not truly understanding the premise of what I’m saying that is precisely how people get in trouble. They believe it’s signalling one thing (like a new bull run) when all it’s been doing is building for possible and even sharper reversal. This same phenom I charted and kept notating happened in February.

Remember February? If not that’s OK, just look at the chart, it’s right there and it was “The highest market high in human history.” There was no Covid scare, no nothing, and nothing but “even higher highs” predicted – then it all fell apart just as I was warning about. Then, “The Wuhan Flu” came in March.

Once again, if you doubt what I’m saying just remember it was none other than the clown prince of buzzer-banging professing on CNBC™ how he felt the market and his nifty proprietary paid for signal sender was wrong and it was time to “Buy, Buy, Buy.” You are now only back to even from when he advised it.

And for those that followed his advice? How’s that round trip been? Good times, no? But I digress.


(Note: Remember, I am not giving or alluding to any trading or financial advice here. That’s not what this or any of my discussions about the markets are about. See the “About This Site” page for any questions.)

So here’s that chart I alluded to. To wit:

(Chart Source)

What I personally find intriguing about the above is: the pattern; the text book overthrow and reversal; its possible signaling (gold dot marked as “signal?”); both the timing happening at the end of the day, the day before last day of trading for the end of the month. I mean: it’s almost too text book; too good of timing; too perfect in shape and scope to be believable for possibilities. But it is – what it is. But I’ll also tell you that from a technician’s viewpoint – it’s so text book for what it possibly forebodes – it’s scary.

If the markets sell off from here (albeit the market can bounce higher and this pattern can still remain intact) and traverse into that lower circle I noted with “confirmation,” then all of your spidey senses should be beginning to tingle indicating there’s the possibility for real danger to come – and fast.

Will it? Nobody knows. And there have been more than a fair share of “This is it!” types of moments. Personally, from my perspective, I think when it comes to history rhyming, I’m still of the opinion we are more in line with the “Little Boy, finger and a dike” type analogy, rather than what many think is “Chicken Little.”

As always, we shall see.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

F.T.W.S.I.J.D.G.I.G.T.

(For those who say I just don’t get it…get this)

There was a time before 2007 when the mainstream business/financial media was a force to be reckoned with. Then the “Great Financial Crisis” began in early 2007 laying waste to everything that was once considered “money in the bank” thinking, along with the reputation of its most coveted band-wagoneers. i.e., Show hosts and their parading ensemble of next-in-rotation fund-managers and so-called “smart-crowd” populating most think-tanks.

Most of what was paraded as “insight” and more on these networks was nearly never, if ever, questioned. And if you happen to not be one of the coveted “in crowd?” You were more often than not derided and dismissed with an air of oozing superiority. A Bloomberg™ host used to use the term “Those that shall not be named.” to reference people like myself.

Then 2008 happened in earnest, and it was the entirety of this same media that suddenly looked at their camera lenses, microphones and keyboards like deer in the headlights, dumbfounded. The only thing that was worse was that every single explanation they gave for reasoning and calm was mercilessly ground into the annuls of “They ain’t got a clue!” history books. Yet, that didn’t mean they would ever stop.

Over the years these networks and shows have all but been relegated to the dust bin of history when it comes to the illuminating of anything useful or insightful, they’ve been beyond pathetic now going on a decade. I’ve written and spoke far too many times to list them all here. But to prove this point, let me not pull from the past, but use an example from today, as in, to-day.

This morning on CNBC™ “Squawk Box” anchors Andrew Ross Sorkin and Joe Kernen had a bit of a dust up (more like smack down) about the Corona virus, death tolls and the economy.

During a three minute skirmish it is clear (as I have pointed out, again, far too many times to note) Mr. Sorkin’s holier-than-thou political posture comes shining through. The problem is he is so politically biased he can’t postulate or conceivably understand any argument or premise that doesn’t fit his dogma. And, once again, he lays his cards down showing his true “insights.”

How you ask? Easy: If you don’t take his argument in toto – then you’re just defending Trump. Literally.

Don’t take my word for it, here’s a link to MarketWatch™ with the aforementioned spat. Doesn’t mean you or I are taking Mr. Kernen’s side. But once Mr. Sorkin plays his “Trump card” what more do you need to know?

In the wake of such stunning numbers he resites he seems to not be cognizant of one very, very, very (did I say very?) small detail. All the data, along with the C.D.C and others have lowered their numbers to barely equal a normal flu season. You would think Mr. Sorkin being so “up” on the news of the day would have some small grasp of that, not to mention N.Y. Governor Cuomo’s own proclamation that they got the numbers wrong.

Just make sure you don’t tell Andrew, because by the way he seems so convinced of his opinion, I don’t think he wants to know. Just sayin’.

If you think I’m just highlighting a onetime thing where Mr. Sorkin may have mistakenly allowed his politics to be seen on screen. May I remind you how he used his platform to have lawmakers and others badger and belittle credit card companies and banks into no longer allowing financing or purchasing constitutionally protected item such as firearms or ammo? This was the most egregious abuse of his platform in my eyes, because the companies are publicly traded and he hosts a show that can materially impact stocks. And CNBC allowed it all.

Is it any wonder why their rating are so bad they no longer publish them?

There have been so many glaring examples of political bias and/or “talking one’s book” its pathetic. Need I remind you of yet another, like the “I hate manias” Dan Nathan belligerently deriding a guest who didn’t share his views about one of the biggest manias of this current era known as Bitcoin™? And if you listened to his (Mr. Nathan) advice, all I have to say is what I’ve said ever since: You [still] have my condolences.

Then there’s the other farce that has lost its credibility almost as fast and deep, and if it weren’t for its terminal and news wire services – the name “terminal” would mean two things at once. e.g., Bloomberg.

As I mentioned at the beginning this network has itself shown its bias in more ways than one when it comes to advocating what they believe is relevant or informative. I stopped watching long ago when I as a viewer was told by host Tom Keene through the camera lens that I really needed to hear his next guest’s “insight” on the economy because “He was a Democrat.”

Here’s what I said to that bit of “insight.” Thanks Tom – click. And basically have never been back in a way as I used to.

Again, I don’t care what party affiliation anyone has unless we’re talking politics or legislation. This discussion (the day of that show) was the equivalent of talking open heart surgery and the reason why I needed to heed the next guest’s summation was not because they were a heart surgeon, or other medical specialist, but rather, they happened to have a Ph.D. which allowed them to be called “Dr.” and were a Democrat.

“But wait…there’s more!” as they like to say on late night TV. And boy, this one just leaves me speechless, and for those that know me, you know, that’s saying something.

Another fixture over at Bloomberg was one of the biggest blowhards of financial media known as Barry Ritholtz. Many times Mr. Ritholtz would take to the airwaves and refer to people like myself as “Idiots.” I’ve written about this when it happened and its all in the archives (as well as the Dan Nathan incident) But Mr. Ritholtz was someone with a big platform and seemingly loved to tell everyone and anyone just how smart he was and how everyone else is wrong (i.e., he loved to use the term “data deniers”). And much like Mr. Sorkin, holds a holier-than-thou attitude as he dispenses his own variant of self-indulgent dogma.

He even wrote a book about it. The title? Bailout Nation: “How greed and easy money corrupted Wall Street and shook the world economy” (2009, Wiley)

Here’s an excerpt from the cover-jacket. To wit:

Ritzholz leaves no stone unturned as he breaks down how the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate targeting policies as well as a condition known as moral hazard – the belief that you won’t bear the full consequences of your actions.

The United States has abandoned its capitalist roots and become a Bailout Nation.

Well guess what? In the most rocket fueled (aka Federal Reserve interest rate targeting policies and more) Wall Street mania of free money where stocks were at “Never before seen in human history highs” just 90 or so days ago. The investing entity with a reported $1+Billion under management aka Ritholtz Wealth Management, along with its chief executive officer Josh Brown ( yes, that Josh of CNBC fame) have reason to celebrate. Why?

They just got a government bail out!

Think I’m making it up? I completely understand, but here’s the aforementioned Mr. Brown in his own words. Again, to wit:

We qualified for the SBA-backed payroll protection loan after submitting our information and attestations. Two and a half months worth of employee payroll. I’m never comfortable taking on debt, but I’m even less comfortable about the idea of having to let people go. I would never be able to look myself in the mirror again if I had made that promise and didn’t back it up with action.

Thank you, Chase Bank! Thank you, SBA! It’s the news I needed and it came at the right time. Many of our peers of a similar size and employee headcount throughout the industry were able to make use of the program too. Being able to assure the firm that we’re keeping everyone and honoring all of our financial commitments meant everything in the moment.

From the website: The Reformed Broker. com

And there you have it.

I only have one thing to say to the above…

I may be an “idiot.” But it’s a lot more credible than what they’ll now affix to Mr. Ritholtz and company, because after-all: Why did they not just buy the f’n dip? Seems to be working perfectly, no?

But, then again, what do I know. They’re the ones on TV, right?

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Addendum: I would like to make clear, as I have said many times: There are some fantastic, smart and insightful people that both have and still do work for these organizations. What I find absolutely disgusting is these voices (again, people I believe to be stunningly informed) have all been seemingly erased from the light of the cameras, microphones and more. In other words – whenever it appeared they were questioning or veering from the “markets can only go up” dogma, they were thereafter more likely to be seen on the back of milk cartons, rather than the network. And it is there that I find my disdain the most pointed.

Footnote: These “FTWSIJDGIGT” articles came into being when many of the topics I had opined on over the years were being openly criticized for “having no clue”. Yet, over the years, these insights came back around showing maybe I knew a little bit more than some were giving me credit for. It was my way of tongue-in-cheek as to not use the old “I told you so” analogy. I’m saying this purely for the benefit of those who may be new or reading here for the first time. I never wanted or want to seem like I’m doing the “Nah, nah, nah, nah, nah” type of response to my detractors. I’d rather let the chips fall – good or bad – and let readers decide the credibility of either side. Occasionally however, there are and have been times they do need to be pointed out, which is why these now have taken on a life of their own. (i.e., something of significance per se that may have a direct impact on one’s business etc., etc.) And readers, colleagues, and others have requested their continuance.

25K vs 40MM

Originally I was going to write and post a few housekeeping notes concerning both the website and the broadcast (you’ll find those at the bottom). But it seemed I had yet to even touch my first coffee when I was barraged by a few friends to discuss the current rip roaring “Bull Market” which I’ve surely both gotten wrong and want to change my stance.

Let’s just say the lines went quiet when I said: Why?

Depending on when you’re reading this, here in the U.S., the markets have opened up, once again, multiple percentage points. As I type this the S&P 500™ is now over 3000. The Dow™ 25,000. And the NASDAQ™ is within spitting distance of scoring another “Never before seen in the history of mankind” higher high. So what’s not to be bullish about is the general consensus.

Let me put it this way: Because it’s all bullsh#t and will end even worse I believe sooner (much sooner actually) than later. For as my favorite Riddler (Frank Gorshin) would say, “Riddle me this…”

When does: Emergency Unemployment Insurance ending; Rent and Mortgage Forbearance Ending; $1200 Emergency Handouts Spent; Election Uncertainty; China and U.S. trade deals collapsing; Unemployment nearing 20% plus and rising; and most of the global civilization still on lock-down orders equate to a Bull Market in stocks? (i.e. 25K in the Dow with 40mm (that’s million) unemployed in the U.S. alone.)

Hint: When all the Central Banks print more and more money and buy those very “markets.” (insert “rim-shot” here)

There’s another reason why you’re seeing these latest “pops” in the markets: There’s no one else in them. i.e., the volume that’s moving these markets too-and-fro is less than anemic. And when you’re in that time frame known as “Month-end window dressing.” The pops and hits just keep on coming – until they don’t.

This is the reason why I stopped commenting on the markets, for there’s nothing to gain for insight in regards to the health or well being of a company, or economy for that matter.

Why?

Because they are no longer markets – they are adulterated, perverted creations of Central Banks. If one does not understand this by now – there’s nothing more I can say to you but best of luck in whatever your pursuits. And I mean that.

As of now I only comment on said “markets” based on what I see via a technical perspective. I’ve been running a commentary based on it via a technical analysis framing. For many this is one of the most frustrating times for heeding any warning signals for far too many get caught flatfooted when what looked like a “This is it!” moment turns into another waiting for Godot. Then they assume, wrongly, all prior warnings were the equivalent of “Chicken Little.”

Remember: It is what it is – till it isn’t. Lest I remind you of another childhood story that featured a boy, dike and a finger. This is more along the line of rhymes we are facing in my humble opinion.

“So why do you still comment at all?” I can hear you ask through my monitors, and it’s a very fair question.

The only reason why I started this commentary and have been updating it is for the sheer fact that no one, repeat, no one in the mainstream business/financial media seems to be even aware of what we’re facing.

The “signals” that they are reporting as “forward looking” and more are specious at best and down right lies at worst. There is no economy currently running on the face of this little rock we call Earth that warrants “markets” at near human history highs as most are facing unemployment that makes Great Depression figures look like a hiccup.

There will be a turning point (again, I believe before the Nov. election) that will rival what we seen in March. I’m just trying my best to relay what I see via a technical perspective in a way that helps those that want to be kept abreast of what may, or may not be at hand. Yet – emphasis on “yet.

Could I be wrong? Of course I could. But all I would ask is that you go back a bit and remember that more often than not I’ve been frustratingly early – not wrong. That’s a distinction with a very big difference, which is very unlike the buzzer-banger et. al. And if you were one of those that followed his advice back in March? How does it feel to be back to “even?” Good times, no?

For my last commentary on this “market” today I’ll just leave you with the following chart that I’ve used to notate certain gyrations since April. To wit:

(Chart Source)

The above represents the S&P 500 as I type this. What it depicts via a technical analysis deduction is this: That gold colored box represents the next area one would look for a reversal should the prior (see blue area) be vacated. In other words: this is doing nothing, repeat, nothing different than what patterns such as these have expressed with high odds. It is only the size and scope that has most thinking and insinuating all the “bad” is over and done with ala Jeremy Siegel style.

This is precisely another reason why I’ve been running my commentary: It is people like the a fore mentioned that insinuate and declare such things during these types of moves that set up far too many for disastrous results by catching the most amount of people, at the absolute worst time, flat-footed. Why? Because they are declared and treated as so-called “experts” across said mainstream business/financial media.

So there you have it.

But enough with that and onto coming changes to the site and show.

First…

The updates to the site over the holiday weekend went far better than anticipated. Thank you to all for your patience. There will be more, but for now, we are good to go.

Speaking of go…

The MYTR Broadcast is coming out of hiatus in the coming weeks. I’m delighted on the direction it’s going and will discuss more and announce when appropriate.

So stay tuned.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

The Price Of Freedom

As we in the U.S. remain on some measurement of both self, as well as government imposed lock-down, where businesses are not just being threatened with draconian measures such as fines, license and permit suspensions or the very real threat of imprisonment. I would like to offer something for your consideration that needs to also be incorporated into your thoughts. Because as thankful as we are, and should be, for others that have put their lives in certain harm for us to enjoy freedom. We as business owners need to remember:

There’s a price to be paid for letting unqualified “resume enhancers” populate all out local boards, commissions, chambers et. al. For far too long, far too many have relied or regurgitated the tired old excuse of, “I’m trying to run a business here, I’m too busy for that!”

Now you know the reason why in most cases when you are told “You can’t open!” no one understands your plight. Now is the time to start making those corrections, now is the time to start unseating the “resume enhancement” set. Now is the time to make the case why your independent business is the foundation of American life. Not a government handout.

Immigrants risked everything to get here because in the U.S. the streets were thought to be “made of gold.” They were and still are, because that “gold” was known as “Main Street” where businesses composing of self starting individuals took their chance at prosperity. That vision is still well enshrined and possible. Maybe now more than in decades past. Yes – decades.

As was sung by Joni Mitchell “You don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone.” I’m here to tell you it’s far from gone, but it’s on life support. But its going to be – the will to live – that more often than not brings it back stronger than ever before.

Think I’m overstating the case? Fair point. So let me show you a picture that just crossed my desk that inspired my writing this to begin with. To wit:

(screenshot via ZeroHedge™)

The above is taking place in Hong Kong in protest of losing their freedoms to communistic rule via China. Notice something? Hint: Social distancing be damned. Somethings are more important.

And let me leave you with one last item to consider that I said on my show before we went on hiatus…

For all those that thought the idea of communism couldn’t ever happen in the U.S.A. How’s your initial taste going so far? Because if you don’t start voicing, arguing and filling all those positions you left for everyone else to fill because – you were too busy. Here’s not another hint, but a Nostradamus inspired prediction for consequence…

This is only the initial course, there’s much more being prepared.

Think about it.

Personally, I stand in solidarity and sing the very song they sing (yes, they, as in the Hong Kong protesters) in both our honor:

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr