F.T.W.S.I.J.D.G.I.G.T.

(For those who say I just don’t get it… get this)

If there has been one recurring argument I have made probably more than any other (yes, even concerning The Federal Reserve) is the one concerning who I call “The Buzzer Banger” also known as “Cramer” on CNBC™

Mr Cramer is someone I consider the most dangerous person to ones 401K across the entire mainstream financial/business media. I have given my reasons a multitude of times, given examples, quoted others that actually tracked his calls and more, for years.

Those years began during the original market gyrations during the onset of what we now call “The Great Financial Crisis” beginning in 2007 and culminating through 2008 into early ’09. The final, and what should have been the final time this person was allowed near a camera or microphone of any self respecting network (maybe that’s the clue, but I digress) giving investment advice with his calamitous Bear Stearns advice, and his subsequent weaseling of trying to say (and spin) he didn’t say or mean what he said.

Nowhere was this covered and exposed better than by Jon Stewart on his Daily Show during said period. All one needed to know was laid bare there. I myself have referred to it many times over the years and it’s worth watching again. For those that have never seen it, it is a must see for context as I further expand on this topic.

Here’s the link via Comedy Central™. “In Cramer We Trust”

The reason why the above is important for context is this…

On March 4th, Wednesday of last week the markets surged with the Dow Jones Industrial Index™ over 1100 points (e.g., 1173) and it was none other than the famed “Buzzer Banger” that took to the airwaves to point out to anyone still watching, that his “most trusted market indicator says to start buying stocks.”

The entire surety of acumen he used throughout this entire argument was pure unadulterated drivel. That’s my conjecture, but now there’s proof.

He claims throughout this presentation that the last time “he” was mistaken in reading this so-called “trusted” indicator was when the entire markets collapsed, meaning, the indicator was correct and he was wrong – but not this time!

I’m pretty sure you know what I’m going to say next, don’t you?

As I am typing this the S&P 500™ futures contract are in “Limit Down” status, as in – they are frozen from going any lower until the cash market opens at 9:30am in the U.S.

The markets were open in the Sunday session for about two hours, crashed, and are now limit down – just as I have been warning on my show these past few weeks. And here we are. (i.e., Limit Down means they have reached the 5% down limit and no trades will be allowed to sell lower than ~2818. )

And no, that’s not a typo – that’s how low we’ve spiked down.

Over the past few years as the incessant “Fed’s got you’re back” mantra has gained confidence Mr. Cramer himself has regained his own confidence. As I’ve pointed out too many times to count, for years he would couch every “Bull” call with the disclaimer of (paraphrasing) “Well, we know this will all end badly.” He said it so often I would laugh.

But what I would reiterate in no laughing manner was the fact where I said: You’ll know how much he’s drank his own Kool-Aid® as that disclaimer begins to be heard less and less. Over the last two years or so he’s dropped it all together, as I’ve pointed out, again, too many times to count.

But I just so happened to want to watch CNBC last week and especially his show to see just how they, as well as he, were covering the most recent volatility. (Yes, sometimes I’m a gluten for punishment) Let’s just say, I was lucky to pick this day because it was probably a 1 or 2 chance in 365 that I would at all. Let’s just say I was both in awe, as well as down right speechless. And for those that know me well – that’s saying something.

The amazing thing was, I was so speechless and awed by the brazen claim for such surety that I started screen-capturing it because I couldn’t believe what I was watching and hearing!

All I kept saying to myself during it was: If this market ever does fall apart – you had better hope it ain’t any where near this time-frame because if it is – this will make the Bear Stearns debacle look pale in comparison.

And now – just two trading days later and two hours into the over-nite Sunday session – the markets have crashed and are down over two thousand points from where he told everyone they should be buying.

And we may only be at the start, yes, start of the sell off.

If the markets do bounce back from here is immaterial – the proof is now “cooked in the pudding” as they say. How this guy will be allowed to be in front of a camera again is beyond my imagination. But as I implied earlier: That would mean it was a self-respecting network.

Building their (CNBC) entire brand around this guy in the wake and since the financial crisis, like his latest call for surety, is once again seen in “the pudding.” I think that “pudding” now resembles something found in San Francisco, but that’s just me.

Here’s that a fore mentioned segment for you to view for yourself, rather than take any of my insinuations. All I’ll say is this…

If you’re drinking any type of beverage – you may want to wait till after viewing as to not need to clean your desk or screens afterwards. Because knowing what you know now? You may have involuntary spasmodic reactions. (Oh, where’s Jon Stewart when you need him, but again, I digress.)

Image via YouTube™ screenshot, click on image to view)

I really wonder just how many people will be watching this network from here on out. For If the above is any signal on whether or not one should?

I’ll let Mr. Cramer’s own words spell out the reasons themselves.

Because no one could say it better.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Out Of Our Hands

Due to construction outside of the studio (and out of our control) we have been without power for much of the day, therefore, there will be no show today. We will post any updates if something changes.

Thanks,

Mark

Nostalgia

As I was looking through some photos, for varying reasons, I came across this one and it was the date that hit me. To wit:

April 28, 2008

Now here’s the reason why it “hit me.”

The above represents a period of time in my life that some would argue was the “pinnacle” of achievement. e.g., I had just retired (3 years prior), moved to a brand new location in the country with fantastic weather and landscapes that inspire the term “God’s country” every-time you left the house. Moved into a just as beautiful, award winning property, that was better landscaped and appointed than most high end hotels. Again, a multiple award winning development for management and property details.

As you may garner from the above photograph – my smile – just about says it all. i.e., The kid everyone said “would never amount to anything” did all the things everyone said “couldn’t and wouldn’t.” Never-mind successfully grabbing more than one of life’s “Brass Rings.”

I felt precisely, at that moment of time, I hit life’s lottery. Nothing was given, I worked extremely hard for every break, many times with such life changing set backs I wondered if I had more in common with Job than Jobs.

Now the reason why I’m presenting the above is this: I’m not trying to impress you with anything. What I am trying to do is to impress upon you what came after, as a matter of fact, shortly after, because it’s the reason why I do what I do today. In actuality – it’s the genesis for much of it.

So to put the above picture in context I would like to present a few other “pictures” as they call them in Silicon Valley and let them speak for themselves. The “I take a picture” note on the first chart is the precise date the above photo was taken.

I’ve made further notes on them describing their relevance, so without further ado, here they are. To wit:

(Chart Source)
(Chart Source)
(Chart Source)

The reason for all the above is this…

I distinctly remember, like it was yesterday, all the so-called “smart crowd” arguing why the markets were doing this, that and other thing – only to be proven that they had precisely no clue at all, et al.

Now it is the same crowd (and many of the same ones from prior at that) not only saying the same arguments as they did prior, but proselytizing ever-the-more confidently than ever that there’s no reason for concern, because: The Fed’s got your back.

The only issue I’ll ask is this…

What happens when the Fed realizes that no one has theirs? Or for that matter:The “markets” realize it first? e.g., How much longer can Repo-maddness go on? And what happens when it stops? Or the reverse: what happens when everyone knows they can’t stop, ever?

That is when the real craziness will either begin – or end.

As always, we shall see.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

MLK Holiday

Today’s MYTR Broadcast is on holiday in observance of Martin Luther King Day in the U.S. and will return tomorrow.

Below is a short clip from March of 2010 when the iPad® was first being introduced to scores of jeers and finger-pointing on picking such a “stupid name.” It was also being touted as “Who’d in their right mind buy such a thing when they could have a laptop?” At the time of this recording, now a decade old, the results to whom had the right argument is now settled.

Remember: At the time of this recording the entirety of the mainstream business/financial media was playing down this idea and product with jubilant disdain. If you want to get an understanding – just think about how enamored they were with Snapchat™ and its IPO debut with fanfare and more – then – think the same only in the complete opposite direction. That was the reaction to not only the iPad at that time, but also the idea of Apps. i.e., “Who in their right mind would ever buy an App when it’s available on CDs?”

Sound familiar? If it doesn’t, let me put it this way:

“Who in their right mind would question the strength and fundamental underpinnings that are propelling this Bull market?” ________(fill in your mainstream business/financial media pundit of choice here)

Now, since history has recorded the results – it’s proved I was the one far more correct in my assessment of the first two items. And, once again, all during that time to the howls and screeds of said media pundits. How the latter one plays out is still open for debate. But as my track record shows, I seem to have a bit more deductive reasoning power than most of the so-called “smart crowd.”

Although they do still howl and screed like a 2-year-old.

Some things never change.

March 2010 “Thinking Aloud” Series

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Please Bear With Us…

It appears that a few emails are going out as posts as we try and sort things out on the site.

If you see anything bearing the name “test” or “testeroni” or any other super sophisticated test name inspired by NASA (actually Wile E. Coyote, but you get it) just delete and please pardon us for them.

Thanks.

Mark

Because It Needs To Be Said…

This moment of insanity is brought to you by TSLA. For those of you “new kids” not being hip. That would be Tesla™. Yes, the same cars you’re reading about crashing, spontaneously catching fire, ____________(fill in your own here.)

But just like they used to say in days-of-old when all those great saying in Latin terms were being memorized to be memorialized. Let’s use one a bit more modern, but still is of the “dated” variety from pop-culture.

This goes out to everyone that now have to further justify it’s valuation. You know, why it’s now the most valuable car company ever in the U.S. and why. (Not a joke!)

Right now, you’re “cruisin'” in other words, your investment prowess is just as deep as Tom’s line. This is precisely what investing has morphed into. All I’ll finish with is: best of luck with that, honest.

To wit:

(Chart Source)

And speaking of “Make Your Move.” Again, to wit:

Again, best of luck with all that.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

1979 Called – And 2020 Answered

Audio Version of Sunday’s Column: 1979 Called…

Usually I try and stay clear of all that’s political. However, when I do wade into the “pool,” I do my upmost to stay clear of the muck and mud and focus on the, what is.

In other words, what one needs to garner or surmise from the political dialogue, as to what may or will be coming forth in new laws or taxes, in regards to business. Although this is different, the arising consequences are the same. i.e., It’s going to affect everything.

I have been on record far too many times to count that when it comes to understanding this president, you have to view him from a purely business aspect, not the political. Sure, there’s an overarching political calculation, but that comes after the fundamental business equation.

Not fully understanding that implicit dynamic is where most assumptions go awry.

Whether or not one likes or hates him, his administration, _________(fill in your own here) is irrelevant. When it comes to understanding what might be forthcoming via legislation, rhetoric or anything else, the calculus should always be the same. First: What would a business person do in this situation? Then, how would the political aspect (if any) be handled?

For far too long only the latter has been considered by politicians and pundits alike. But as I said, which is now glaringly apparent: this isn’t 1979 and it ain’t coming back in any political calculus. Period.

I’m old enough to remember vividly (I was 19) the images crossing the television sets back in 1979 as Iranian militants seized, then paraded blindfolded American hostages before the world’s eyes. We were told back then (and from our politicians of the time) much the same as Iran’s Supreme Leader echoed this time, as Iranian backed militants embarked on trying to seize an American embassy as some gruesome expression of a 40 year anniversary surprise. e.g., “You can’t do anything.” Hint: We can, we did, and will do more – much more.

As I expressed on my show Friday when trying to give some context, for example as to how many Americans may view the response via the administration with the taking out of Iran’s top military officials, was this: There comes a point when threats will be taken as just that, meaning, they will be dealt with as such. “Bigly.”

This ain’t 1979, and Trump isn’t Carter. But more to the point: There’s a vast swath (I’ll say great majority) of Americans that hold absolutely no quarter for the idea of possibly needing to stock up on yellow ribbon ever again. Ever.

But there’s another part in this mix that’s being overlooked, and it’s this:

There is not a 1979 Iranian populace in play either.

Iranians themselves have grown tired of the 1979 takeover via the militant, Iron-fist of religious rule. This one aspect alone has the possibility of totally disrupting all the communistic visions for world domination being supplanted by China and Russia. Never mind Iran. And no one seems to be taking this into account. Repeat: no one.

Already we see the ping-ponging of deep introspect via the same “smart-crowd” populating the so-called “think tanks” professing such profound insights such as “The Middle-East just turned more dangerous.” and other pearls of wisdom.

These are the same people that got us into all this mess to begin with their “They’ll welcome us as liberators” tripe.

Hint: they didn’t and we should not have followed one word these people espoused. Now, 18 years later, they’re saying if we leave (e.g., Iraq) it could cause chaos! For the record, I’m OK with chaos, for I’m sick of this insanity, but that’s just me.

Going back to the wild card in all of this, what is not being calculated by this entire “smart-crowd” is the very real possibility that the Iranian people themselves might view this as the perfect time to push forward with their own struggle for both freedom of this rule, and once again returning to true self governing. And if that were to take place what happens to the now “China, Russia, Iran alliance?”

I’m not saying or implying a time like that under the Shaw that was supposedly an American puppet. I’m talking about true self rule, whatever they believe is correct. And they seem to be trying to do just that.

Now, because of the pure ideological bent and sheer fanaticism of the media (that’s U.S., not the others, just to clarify) all we ever see are the protests calling for “Death to America!” The reason for it is that’s all that the Iranian leaders will allow to be shown, because everything else is censored, not just to the world, but to its own people.

The people of Iran have been protesting in much the same way as Hong Kong and in similar numbers. But in the U.S., if it’s a protest in Iran – unless it’s against America – the need for coverage is squashed. Literally.

So I’m going to ask this question again, which I asked on my show: What would the world, never-mind the Middle East, look like if the Iranian people threw off the shackles of their current oppressors and became a more democratic country with self rule? How much would that change the calculus for the spread of communism’s world vision (i.e., China’s) for dominance?

China itself would find that all the so-called “alliances” in the Middle East they are trying to build would suddenly fall into a quagmire of second guessing if not outright rejection. I also will contend China is in no way financially stable enough to weather that possibility on a protracted time frame.

To be clear: what I am not advocating for is the U.S. in any way, shape, manner, or form to instigate or have at its decision making calculus the idea that doing this might bring about that. e.g., regime change for the sake of it. No, that’s not what I’m stating at all.

What I am saying is this: If the actions displayed via the administration (e.g. U.S.) in carrying out the strikes, in Baghdad, of a military leader of another nation that is orchestrating said attacks outside of his own country, at the desire and will of Iran’s current leadership to not only kill Americans, but to then profess that there’s nothing we could do? All I’ll say is welcome to the U.S.’s new 2020 Lasik enhanced vision.

Now, the sooner we get out of the entire Middle East entirely, the better. Let this action stand as a stark reminder of its own…

Threaten us? Here’s a pro-tip: It ain’t 1979.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Final Addendum: “Expert” Review and Summary 2019

When it comes to the crypto space there has been no shortage of “Experts” and “Gurus” willing to sell you their advice for $Thousands as long as it’s in cold hard cash via your credit card. But I digress.

Some of these so-called “experts” were on “Bubble-Vision” (aka the mainstream business/financial media) so often the drug company commercials were envious. They came on to tell anyone with a pulse that “This is it! The winter in cryptos was over!!” Then, as had been the case prior, as soon as they said “This is it!” It appeared to be over. And their faces were now seen more commonly on milk-cartons, rather than television. Funny how that happens, no?

Suddenly you had people like Tom Lee openly complaining about people continually asking him on his thoughts for where cryptos were heading. Again, when it was going up he seemed to be taking any and every interview call. Then as it fell, again, he seemed to be unavailable. Scheduling conflicts, I’m sure.

Then you had James Altucher opining about how everyone hated him for his plastering of ads across the media. Hint: No Jim, if I may call you that, I have a feeling it was because you sold them what many realized after the fact to be something that made snake-oil look legitimate. But that’s just me. Do I also need to remind anyone of retire rich on “Weed?” And if you bought (literally) into that also? Again, you have my condolences.

Just to make this point: These people (and those like them because they seemed to be everywhere) when it appeared they, once again, had the winds at their backs as cryptos appeared to be rising from the dead. They all seemed to be chanting in unison “Winter is over!” And of course willing to sell you their advice for an additional fee. (credit cards that transfer payments in cold hard cash to their accounts both recommended and preferred I would garner, but again, that’s just me.)

So with the above for context and history now in the books, how did it all work out? Or, more to the point, who made the better of the call? The so-called “Experts,” “Gurus” or yours truly?

Well, let’s just say, all the aforementioned “experts and gurus” weren’t even close.

Using some charts or, as they like to call them in The Valley, “pictures,” the attached “family album” speaks for itself.

I’ll start from the beginning which was in May of 2019 when things first began to move, and when the television replaced the milk carton. The charts were notated at the time of posting and speak for themselves. I’ll link to the latest article that has all the back-links to the previous as it was an ongoing commentary (Here). To wit:

The above covers the period from May through September. Here are the finals as of December 31, 2019. Again, to wit:

(Chart Source)

And here is how that long projection call performed. Just to reiterate: that channel line was drawn way back in May and the circle in July, all beforehand, meaning – the market had not shown its hand. Now look at how the market twice touched that upper channel line twice and with precision. Think that area wasn’t important? And remember – I drew that line 8 months prior. To wit:

(Chart Source)

Although my ultimate (i.e., “Lottery Target”) of approximately $4K or so was not hit (we got as low as $6500 twice). Both the direction and path was spot on. Everyone told me that my analysis was “off base.” Everyone told me “You just don’t get it!” and more, a lot more. And many were loaded with profanity and insults that made preschoolers appear erudite in comparison. Just like in 2018 – till it ended right where I said it would.

Now, just like the “experts” and “gurus” they followed and shelled out their money to for “advice.” Let’s just say “milk-carton” comes back to mind.

Where will it go in 2020? I have no idea nor do I care, which I have said ad nauseum during these past two years. But the one thing I do know is this…

I had a little bit more of a clue than not just some, but basically, all of the so-called “experts” and “gurus” that were paraded across the media.

The “pictures,” as they say in The Valley, proves it. Period, end of story.

But then again, what do I know.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Happy New Year And Where To From Here

I would like to make two points…

First: I am absolutely ecstatic, as well as humbled, by the response to the “Free Prize Inside” offer. Much like when I released my first book way back in 2012, I did things far different than all the so-called “experts” professed not only should be done, but “must be done” in regards to launch dates, media, PR releases, etc., etc., etc.

Back then I launched in a window which I was told was the absolute worst period of time for any author, let alone an unknown one, which was just days before Christmas.

I was told if you had not been putting out promos (aka ads), giving interviews, pitching it far and wide in any place that would have me, it would fail miserably. Even if I was an accomplished author the odds for success would be near nil. The result?

Within days it was being actively downloaded in over 60 countries to finally reach metrics that would compare to most making the “Best Seller” lists. (on an aside: I documented all those metrics in real-time and have since moved it to “Out of Print” status)

To say I was astonished back then would be an understatement. What has happened so far since last night has, once again, left me flabbergasted.

Within the first hour alone of “Free Prize Inside” you were signing up around the globe in numbers I didn’t think I’d see for weeks. And this was New Year’s Eve! A time when most would tell you “Nobody cares, nobody will probably ready your offer, let alone act.” But you did.

By the end of the night (Midnight U.S., again to reiterate this is New Years Eve!) all my expectations had already been surpassed. Again, I am both ecstatic and humbled.

Second: I’m not usually at a loss for words, and for those of you that have been around me you know that’s saying something. But I do know what I want to make sure I say right now and believe brevity here is fitting. And it is this…

Thank You! You truly are a magnificent group and I am proud to be at your service.

Happy New Year, and here’s to making 2020 another for the record books.

See you then.

Mark