Author: Mark St.Cyr

As Rod Stewart belts “Every picture tells a story, don’t it?” I en devour the following to elaborate all one needs to know when it comes to the “markets” over the past year. Although, what might be even more important of a take away is – where it may be going.

Precisely one year ago, when the MYTR Broadcast™ was in full swing, I was dissecting and discussing why the narrative being pushed across the entire mainstream business/financial media complex was not only wrong, but was downright dangerous for dispensing a more than specious narrative.

This was before the idea on any “Lock-downs” and more were even being considered, let alone, openly discussed.

As a matter of fact and record, subscribers will attest that I was one of the first to openly warn of the knock-on effects that were certain to damage the global economy when China first locked down Wuhan. I argued this alone was going to push the global economy off its axis, because so much of the world’s supply lines and production takes part there. That disruption to dependency alone was something for concern. Yet, the mainstream business/financial media could have cared less and was more concerned on covering what the buzzer-banger dispensed.

Again, as a matter of fact and record, the aforementioned “buzzer-banger” (aka Jim Cramer of CNBC™ fame) came out during this precise period to assure everyone that the sell-off that had transpired that very February into March was not only something to not fear, but rather, look at it as another god given opportunity to BTFD (buy the f’n dip).

It turned out to be anything but, as I said it would be. Here’s how I described it on March 8, 2020. To wit:

On March 4th, Wednesday of last week the markets surged with the Dow Jones Industrial Index™ over 1100 points (e.g., 1173) and it was none other than the famed “Buzzer Banger” that took to the airwaves to point out to anyone still watching, that his “most trusted market indicator says to start buying stocks.”

The entire surety of acumen he used throughout this entire argument was pure unadulterated drivel. That’s my conjecture, but now there’s proof.

He claims throughout this presentation that the last time “he” was mistaken in reading this so-called “trusted” indicator was when the entire markets collapsed, meaning, the indicator was correct and he was wrong – but not this time!

I’m pretty sure you know what I’m going to say next, don’t you?

As I am typing this the S&P 500™ futures contract are in “Limit Down” status, as in – they are frozen from going any lower until the cash market opens at 9:30am in the U.S.

The markets were open in the Sunday session for about two hours, crashed, and are now limit down – just as I have been warning on my show these past few weeks. And here we are. (i.e., Limit Down means they have reached the 5% down limit and no trades will be allowed to sell lower than ~2818. )

“F.T.W.S.I.J.D.G.I.G.T.” March 8, 2020

For those that might not remember, the “markets” then continued to fall and didn’t stop falling until the Fed, once again, threw any remaining credibility not just down the drain, but into the garbage disposal to ensure it was all but destroyed, unleashing a torrent of new programs and available money-for-nothing to ensure Wall Street would not suffer any losses.

Let me make this point very clear: although it is my conjecture, the subsequent rise from those depths in March has only been for the unleashing of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet aka QE4Eva.

Since that period the “markets” have gone straight up in spite of a closed global economy, tens of millions unemployed, and more, much more.

Below is a “picture” using the S&P 500™ to show the story. To wit:

So, for those that may just be a bit skeptical to my analysis (which I totally respect). Here’s another “picture” that I borrowed from Wolf Richter’s website where he plotted the Fed’s own data onto a chart, and I took the liberty of annotating my pertinent atop it. Again, to wit:

And for those that may still be a bit skeptical on just how and where I may have placed my notations. Here’s another via Wolfstreet from the same article showing the above only in closer detail where you can see the actual dates for “take off.” Once again, to wit:

The above is why, back during that period, I declared I would no longer waste my breath commenting on the daily machinations of the “markets,” because it no longer mattered. For, if you still believed these “markets” are something other than a Fed supported casino – good luck with that.

You can watch, read and listen (and now pay!) to all the so-called “smart crowd” paraded across the mainstream business/financial media you want – but if you think they are doing anything more than trying to front run a narrative of a Fed fueled orgy of free money as to appear as if they know what their talking about – you’re kidding yourself. And I was done turning myself blue trying to do otherwise, as I stated then, and still do.

But there is a very real possibility the Fed is now going to find itself in a quandary it never considered, and is quite possibly, a phenom that could send this entire house of cards crumbling. And it is this…

The rate for 30Year Treasury yields has risen more in percentage terms over the last few weeks than it has over the past 40 years. Repeat: Four decades. Here it is in “picture” form. To wit:

Just because you are told “Interest rates have never been lower.” means nothing if your cost of borrowing, or funding your carry trades across Wall Street, begin to not just go up a point or two, but rather, that “point or two” means a doubling, tripling, quadrupling, or more of your costs. Here’s an example…

Going from a 3% to 4% rate is an increase of 33.33%.

Going from .25% to 1.5% is an increase of 600%.

See what I mean?

Wall Street has been running on the model, implicitly guaranteed via the Fed’s jawboning, that “zero interest rates” is its policy. As a matter of fact, remember when Mr. Powell stated at a presser not that long ago that the Fed wasn’t even thinking about, thinking about, raising rates?

It’s now looking like the bond market is not only doing that “thinking” for them, rather, they’re actually raising them in earnest and in real time.

Can you say: Uh -Oh?

10Year Treasury yields broke above 1.5% and are looking like that may be only the beginning. What the Fed does in response to this is anyone’s guess, but what everyone knows with surety is whatever they do to control it – it’s going to be messy one way or the other. And, what exactly are the repercussions for the “markets” poised at these levels, with no true underlying economy to support it, is an open question.

Then again, we’ll only be going into the Ides of March time period. I mean, what can happen, right?

Right?

© 2021 Mark St.Cyr

Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.

There’s suddenly a lot of dismay from the new “guru” class of stock pickers and the trading platforms that provide their services. None is more prominent than, Dave Portnoy aka “Mr. Stocks only go up!” and the once hero of “the little guy” now turned villain, Vlad Tenev CEO of the trading platform Robinhood™.

Here’s the thing about both that I want to point out, which I’ve been pounding my keyboard and screaming at my microphone over the past couple of years…

First: “Everyone’s a ‘genius’ as long as the narrative and momentum doesn’t falter.”

Nothing too complicated about that statement and is pretty much been a known known on Wall Street forever.

However, it’s the second part that I’ve added which affects the prior to reverse exponentially and rapidly that “genius” moniker that’s the real issue, and it is this…

“What are you going to do when the markets turn against you in ways you can not close or alter your position? Who you gonna call, Ghost-busters? You might as well try, because you’ll have an easier time getting a hold of Mr. Aykroyd and crew than you’ll get someone on a discount brokers trade desk. That is – if there’s anyone there to begin with.”

The idea that stocks can only go up, along with you can get expert, timely trading help from an app on your cellphone that allows you to trade for free is not only an absurd notion – but it’s down right childish, and shows just how low the bar has fallen to anyone displaying competency in risk analysis.

Now the flying, fickle, fingers of blame are being thrown back and forth as if either has a point. They don’t. Both are finding out just what happens when “the sh#t gets real.”

Hint: Welcome to Real-ville. And everyone should probably get ready to buckle up and have their “big boy pants” at the ready. Because it’s quite possible…

It’s about to get a whole lot realer. And soon.

As always, we shall see.

© 2012 Mark St.Cyr

So now let’s talk “markets” aka Wall Street. Or, should I say – maybe let’s not. Because all that needs to be said, I’ve already said. It’s just now everyone is catching up, and those that haven’t already don’t want to hear anything to burst their bubble. I.e., The “markets” are rigged, you’re just playing high stakes casino games. Best of luck.

I could list article after article, or quote television or radio newscasts of those in the mainstream business/financial media that are suddenly shocked (shocked!) to find that maybe, just maybe, there are no real valuations or fundamental relationships to where prices of stocks are. Or, said differently: That it could, possibly, all be just narrative and momentum chasing funded via central bank largess. (Ya, think!)

Tesla™ nearly $900 a share, makes no money except for selling government credits, has less than 1% market share, and yet, is larger in market cap than just about all automakers globally – combined.

Or, Bitcoin™, one day it’s up $10K, next it’s down the same, if not more and vice versa. Why?

“The fundamentals!” I hear.

“Sounds just fantastic!” I say.

So, when I inquire further, like “What made it worth $45K yesterday and $35K today? You know, fundamentally speaking?” The response usually goes something like “You just don’t get it!”

“All righty then!” I’ll say internally, as I look to change the subject, because arguing or discussing anything further is a lesson in futility. Yet, that still begs the “fundamental” question, unanswered, like: When it’s tanking out-of-the-blue like it has so often. At what level do you buy more? And/or at what level do you take profits? You know, “fundamentally” thinking?

___________________ (insert crickets chirping here, along with blank stare)

No one knows because there is no true answer. It’s all narrative and momentum. Yet, it is because of this trait that it is so dangerous, for it doesn’t matter about the upside – it’s about the other. e.g., downside. And how to protect oneself. That’s truly all that matters.

And yet, in today’s world? “You just don’t get it!” is all I hear, even though I’m the only one on record, twice, to correctly call Bitcoin’s year end valuation, or devaluation if you prefer. Again, amidst all the so-called “smart-crowds” calls for the exact opposite, But, then again, as I say “What do I know.” Right?

The issue with every bubble (and, in my opinion, Bitcoin is a speculative bubbly-icious bubble) is narrative and momentum have no fundamental stability. Meaning – when a price is dropping there’s no guarantee (or fundamental reason) that people will re-invest, let alone, new buyers. Narrative and momentum are the equivalent of grasping smoke. This is what happens with all bubbles throughout history. Repeat – all.

But no one wants to hear it. And personally, I’m done trying. I’ve made my own call for what I think will happen (once again) by year end, but we’ll just have to wait and see till then. And personally, I could care less.

“Speaking Frankly…” February 11, 2021

As I type this on Tuesday morning before the “markets” open for the U.S. day session, the following has happened over the past seven trading days (i.e., week and a half-ish)…

Tesla has entered not only a bear market, but is on course to open today down even lower culminating to ~30% down from its recent highs.

Bitcoin™, although it has recovered some depending on what day or time one wants to look at, went from ~$58500 then crashed overnight to ~$48500 then rebounded to about $55,000 last night to then drop, in the same, to about ~$44,500 where it’s trying to get back to $50K but seems tired as of this writing.

But then again: What do I know, right?

Here’s one thing I do know If Tesla is crashing and Bitcoin is having $10K plus swings, you know on “fundamentals.” Here’s something else that’s going to come crashing down. To wit:

As one can see by just reading my above excerpt…

That’s a trifecta that few others dared even think.

But what do I know about such things, right?

Oh, yes, just to point something out in case you may miss it – you also needed to be a paying subscriber to have read that great “business and investing insight” from the next-in-rotation-fund-manager, flavor-of-the-day, slobbering just six days ago.

As always, we shall see. But things are starting to get very interesting, indeed, yes?

© 2021 Mark St.Cyr

Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.

(For Those That Want To Know… what I’m watching)

I have been arguing the point, that once the final earnings season (e.g., Q4) reporting was finished in earnest, the “markets” would then begin (and need) to position for a completely new reality. That “reality” being both from the body politic, as well as the actual political legislation being implemented and rescinded. (think: taxes, etc.) We may have reached that inflection point now that Walmart™ has reported earlier this week.

Below is an updated chart of the same one I’ve been using for a while now. It speaks for itself in relation to the what-and-why I’m so attuned. (i.e., it has once again fallen out of my self-derived expectation mean channel.)

The current machinations are up to today (Friday) ~1:00pm EST. To wit:

For those that may not remember – it was merely a few weeks ago when the “markets” last fell out at the beginning of earnings and broke below that “trip wire…” line which caused Fed. Chair Mr. Powell to get on the airwaves to, once again, assure the “markets” they were at the ready.

Now that earnings season is all but officially over, I would kindly remind Mr. Powell and others to not venture too far from the telephone.

As always, we shall see.

© 2021 Mark St.Cyr

Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.

This is a bit of an addendum, to my last addendum, to my latest “Speaking Frankly…” article. (As I said in the latest: it’s getting hard to keep up!)

I do this only to make the point a bit more clearer for those that may have a tendency to second guess me. As I half-jokingly say on the show “You do that at your peril.” Here’s why…

I made the statement that even if you don’t do politics – it does not matter. If you say anything, about anything, concerning anything pertaining to taxes or a government policy, again – anything! You’re going to be a target and it’s only a matter of time. No one one is safe. Today’s latest?

It’s Dave Ramsey, the popular radio host and “financial guru.”

Why? Easy: He dared speak his mind about his thoughts concerning any stimulus payments to individuals. i.e., What it really might mean if $600 changes your life.

You don’t have to agree with him, but what he was saying, i.e., from a philosophical approach to one’s state of finances and what you should or should not be focusing on. Wasn’t dissimilar from anything that he has stated a million times prior in one form or another.

But the times as Bob Dylan intoned – “they are a chain-gin.” And what he has now been deemed to have done via the SMCCM (social-media cancel-culture mob) is: Engaged in poor shaming.

So, now they’re (SMCCM) coming after him, in ways, I don’t think even he fully understood, let alone, ever anticipated.

Currently the SMCCM are still melting down across social media (also media outlets) about his audacity. However, now, within 24hrs, something else just seems to have been reported…

Suddenly a Nashville television station is out-of-the-blue (funny how that happens, no?) that Mr. Ramsey’s company fired an employee for (wait for it…) her husband criticized his company for holding a “mask-less holiday party.”

Now here’s where things get interesting from my perspective and what I feel are germane points to my prior article.

First: This story hit the wires (or television screens) under 24 hours of this writing. Since then it has already been updated with what appears to be pictures from the event. You know, can’t have a good COVID scandal today without pictures of mask-less villains, right?

Second: What I found fascinating is as I was doing a search for a few things out of my initial curiosity, was when I did a goog’ search and lo and behold there up at the top of my query was a Wikipedia™ result. Nothing out of line there you may say, because he’s had one for a long time, why wouldn’t it, does for everyone of his status, right? Well…

What caught my eye is something that slips by most, because, I’m a little more in-tune to look for these types of subtleties. And what popped out to me was there was a time stamp that’s to show when it was last updated. Guess how long ago it was updated? Hint: within the last 13hours. What would be something that would make an editor at Wikipedia rush right over and get on his page?

Hint: what is the worst offense today across all of media, let alone social? Starts with: not wearing a….

The above is a screenshot I did to highlight the time. So, what would be added so quickly? Again, hint: think “controversy.” Here’s what I believe was added, because, after all, this story just broke less than 24 hours ago so how did it get here so fast?

“What am I talking about?” you ask? Good question, how about this. Again, to wit:

Funny how that got there so fast, yes? You think Mr. Ramsey or “his team” did it? Another hint: I bet dollars to doughnuts it was not. But that’s just me.

But then again, if you want to see what a top search brings up, just look at the latest. Once again, to wit:

It would appear that suddenly Mr. Ramsey is the host of quite a bit of bad press, as well as publicity.

Funny how that suddenly happens when you’ve said nothing different than what you have nearly your whole career. But to quote Mr. Dylan one last time…

“You don’t need a weather man to know which way the wind blows.”

But, you do now need to understand the political climate. And, sadly, I don’t think Mr. Ramsey fully understands that this thing is not going to be over quickly, and may end up taking a toll he never thought possible. I hope not, but the headlines and updates seem to show something other is now in play.

© 2021 Mark St.Cyr

I wanted to take a moment and do what is known as “touching base” in relation to both the website, as well as the broadcast.

Last week I put out a “Special Report” that’s available to subscribers of MYTR to try and bring into the current light where my thought processes, as well as challenges, were.

Originally (when we began the hiatus) I had thought we’d be back up and running by the first of February. However, as I described on that edition, I’ve encountered more than a few snags, which gave me reason to pause. Both figuratively and literally.

(Note: any “Charter Members” that found they couldn’t access, please go here and you’re all set.)

Since then I’ve had more than a few inquiries from followers and others asking, “Are you ever coming back?” The short answer to that is: absolutely. However, how and when is a little more nuanced than I can both write or speak, along with just how much “sausage making” you, dear reader, should endure.

So, with that said, let me just check-off a few details so everyone, both followers (i.e., email/blog) and subscribers (e.g., MYTR) are up to speed.

My original concept of where the website and broadcast were going to focus has changed. Not because of me, but rather, what COVID and the current responses to it are driving.

I had very high hopes, much like others, that the incoming administration would effectively hasten the return to some semblance of normal in regards to opening up the economic engine known as: small business. We have all seen via executive orders and other governmental edicts that is not the case.

To be clear: this isn’t a political statement, this is a – It is, what it is – reality based fact. Let me give you an example…

Here in the state of Ohio we have a republican governor announcing when or if a curfew is going to be lifted, scaled back, or some other draconian version of scaling up. It’s all done by edict, at any time, if “the numbers” say so.

I’m sorry – but you can’t run a business on a floating time schedule for Open or Closed, daily. It just doesn’t work. And restaurants, bars, stores and more are closing (some permanently) at a rapid pace.

Then there’s the government of California that with about six days to go before the “Big game” again, via edict, stated that restaurants/bars could be open for inside dining, although at a diminished capacity. But! (and it’s a very big but) Would not be allowed to turn on their televisions so patrons could watch the game.

If you know the restaurant business, as I do, you’d know instinctively that most, if not all, of the bars and restaurants that took the chance at being open purchased all their food and accoutrements just days prior to that announcement, meaning: It was surely the last gasp of what few resources they had of possibly making any money to pay rent, staff or even stay afloat. Or, said differently: they bought and prepared for a party of football fans – and all that showed up were the inspectors concerned with noting if the TVs were on or off.

You can’t run traditional businesses under these circumstances. Period.

Small business proponent agencies such as the NFIB™ (Nation Federation of Independent Business) and others seem to be screaming at the sky (i.e., no one seems to care what they’re saying) as the alarming notion that another (read: additional) 9,000,000 small businesses are slated to close in 2021 via survey responses. And that was before the ever evolving list of executive orders closing major initiatives (e.g., Keystone pipeline) while boosting labor costs (e.g., $15hr. min. wage) and more. Much more. (e.g. yet to come.) Here’s the latest…

Acording to the latest reporting top Democrat legislators (e.g, Ms. Pelosi, Mr. Schumer) just reintroduced as co-sponsors what is known as “The PRO act.” Here’s what that implies. To wit:

The PRO Act would outlaw millions of existing jobs with the stroke of the president’s pen. 

After all, it would make illegal any independent contractor arrangement where the worker provides services within “the usual course of the business of the employer,” meaning jobs like Uber drivers, Doordash drivers, Instacart grocery deliverers, and more could not exist as we know them. There are roughly 10.6 million independent contractors in the US, accounting for 6.9 percent of all employment. Some of these workers might not be affected by the law and some others may get hired on as full-time as a result. But there’s little doubt that millions more would find themselves unemployed.

“The Democrats Just Reintroduced a Labor Law that Would Destroy Uber—And It Could Actually Pass This Time” Economic Policy Journal, February 9, 2021

Again, it doesn’t matter if you’re for all of this, or against it. Remember: It is – what it is. And all any business leader can do is try to find how, or if, they can work through it. Period, full stop.

In regards to this, as I said on my latest show: My original modeling (both the old and new/improved version I was developing) for both the website, as well as the MYTR Broadcast – is dead. i.e., it doesn’t work. As I’ll now explain…

To promote my offerings, I was about to go back onto the speaking circuit. As I described last year I was already in talks to speak at a few events that are very large (i.e., thousands in attendance at each). Then, COVID. Need I say more? Same went for other types of promotional platforms. Social media? Forgettaboutit!

I was already in discussions (let alone already spending money) to utilize social in ways I thought might be beneficial when suddenly the axing of Parler™ took place in a way that should give anyone pause. Then, over the last two weeks alone, Twitter™, Facebook™, YouTube™ and others have jettisoned content and outlets at apace that’s quite startling, both in whom and in size.

Here’s just one…

A YouTube channel hosted by a woman demonstrating how to help other mothers put their baby to sleep having some 1.5 MILLION subscribers was doxxed and basically demonetized, because? It was found she voted for Trump.

This is the age we’re living in.

These aren’t isolated incidents. Again, it doesn’t matter if you’re on the right, left, center, whatever. If you’re using social media? You’re a target. So just how (or more importantly: why?) do you go about doing what I do in this environment? Hint – you can’t. At least, not in the way I had possibly envisioned, let alone, actually started spending money on. It’s now all on hold and re-evaluate.

To reiterate, even though I don’t do politics, it doesn’t matter. Just using the name of the former president as I did in the paragraph above will bring about hate mail and more saying “You must be…” Or, if I’m talking about business and what a tax or wage hike might mean to business, like in the paragraph further above? I’m told the email box begins to fill with the requisite “You filthy evil capitalist pig you need to…” Trust me, it’s the reason why I don’t do comments. It’s literally insane. And it’s getting worse, much worse.

To make my point further, I told subscribers not that long ago that when one of my latest articles went viral, truly viral, with verifiable metrics to back up such claims, metrics that would be “to die for” by anyone looking for traction to gain higher ranking in a Google® search. For me? It all but got me wiped off the page in another bout of shadow-banning.

When others say “You should get a Wikipedia™ page!” and I retort “I tried, then they (Wikipedia editors) deleted it.” The reaction every-time is, “Wait…What?! I’ve never heard of that.”

Yeah, I know, I hear that a lot.

So now let’s talk “markets” aka Wall Street. Or, should I say – maybe let’s not. Because all that needs to be said, I’ve already said. It’s just now everyone is catching up, and those that haven’t already don’t want to hear anything to burst their bubble. I.e., The “markets” are rigged, you’re just playing high stakes casino games. Best of luck.

I could list article after article, or quote television or radio newscasts of those in the mainstream business/financial media that are suddenly shocked (shocked!) to find that maybe, just maybe, there are no real valuations or fundamental relationships to where prices of stocks are. Or, said differently: That it could, possibly, all be just narrative and momentum chasing funded via central bank largess. (Ya, think!)

Tesla™ nearly $900 a share, makes no money except for selling government credits, has less than 1% market share, and yet, is larger in market cap than just about all automakers globally – combined.

Or, Bitcoin™, one day it’s up $10K, next it’s down the same, if not more and vice versa. Why?

“The fundamentals!” I hear.

“Sounds just fantastic!” I say.

So, when I inquire further, like “What made it worth $45K yesterday and $35K today? You know, fundamentally speaking?” The response usually goes something like “You just don’t get it!”

“All righty then!” I’ll say internally, as I look to change the subject, because arguing or discussing anything further is a lesson in futility. Yet, that still begs the “fundamental” question, unanswered, like: When it’s tanking out-of-the-blue like it has so often. At what level do you buy more? And/or at what level do you take profits? You know, “fundamentally” thinking?

___________________ (insert crickets chirping here, along with blank stare)

No one knows because there is no true answer. It’s all narrative and momentum. Yet, it is because of this trait that it is so dangerous, for it doesn’t matter about the upside – it’s about the other. e.g., downside. And how to protect oneself. That’s truly all that matters.

And yet, in today’s world? “You just don’t get it!” is all I hear, even though I’m the only one on record, twice, to correctly call Bitcoin’s year end valuation, or devaluation if you prefer. Again, amidst all the so-called “smart-crowds” calls for the exact opposite, But, then again, as I say “What do I know.” Right?

The issue with every bubble (and, in my opinion, Bitcoin is a speculative bubbly-icious bubble) is narrative and momentum have no fundamental stability. Meaning – when a price is dropping there’s no guarantee (or fundamental reason) that people will re-invest, let alone, new buyers. Narrative and momentum are the equivalent of grasping smoke. This is what happens with all bubbles throughout history. Repeat – all.

But no one wants to hear it. And personally, I’m done trying. I’ve made my own call for what I think will happen (once again) by year end, but we’ll just have to wait and see till then. And personally, I could care less.

So let’s add up a few things from here…

Q: Business and financial commentary about facts, not fiction?
A: Nobody cares. Although, outlets like CNBC™, Bloomberg™, Fox Business™ and others are still parading the “unicorn circus” aka “next in rotation fund managers” and let’s not forget about the resident clown, buzzer banger leading the parade. And still nobody watches. Unless you’re part of the “WallStreetBets” brigade, then you do watch – to then laugh and mock them. But I digress.

Q: Business insights for small business owners or others?
A: Far too many are consumed (and rightly so) with just getting through the day, never-mind, thinking about tomorrow and what to do with it.

Q: Go out on the speaking circuit or host a program built for “drive-time” type audience of on-the-go entrepreneurs and business and/or salespeople?
A: What is this thing you speak of called “drive time” or “go to an event?”

See how this is adding up? Or, Let me do the math for you. e.g., “Not too good.”

So now you know where I am and where the website/MYTR and more currently reside. I, just like many of you, currently reside in “Limboland.” For everything I thought I was going to do, would now not only not work, but rather, could be even more frustrating and detrimental.

Sometimes, the best thing to do in times like these, even if it goes against everything you think you know, is to take a deep breath – come to a full stop, if you can, and re-evaluate anything and everything. No matter what or if there are any sunk costs.

That’s where I am, and that’s where the site and broadcast currently reside.

So, with all the above said, let me also say this…

The site and broadcast are far from “dead.” I’m just re-evaluating everything, And by everything, I mean just that – everything.

I’ll still be posting thoughts and doing what I call “Special Report” type audio. But the frequency is not on any set schedule. It will be sporadic at times, but that’s the only way it can be until I figure out just where and how we’re going forward.

Believe me when I tell you, no one is more frustrated currently than yours truly. But these are extraordinary times that will require extraordinary measures to figure them out. But that’s what I’m doing and I know you are also.

As I’ve always said since the beginning: I use myself as the example. So, if I were to come here and do the “Rah, rah, rah…” type of bull crap that most so-called “thought” or “business leaders” do, it would ring hollow, because that’s precisely what it would be.

What I will say though, in closing, is this…

It is precisely these types of circumstances that create the greatest opportunities.

However, as that other saying goes, “Be careful what you wish for!” Because the circumstance to deliver what you desire might just be the circumstance that’ll try one’s soul.

“May one live in interesting times,” indeed.

(You know that’s actually an ancient Chinese curse, right?)

© 2021 Mark St.Cyr

(For Those Who Say I Just Don’t Get It… Get This)

Here’s something I stated back in October of 2016. When I did, let’s just say, I was told this would have a very minor impact to the viewing or anything else regarding “The game” because, “The game is bigger than politics.” Here’s how I started off that article. To wit:

There was a time when tuning into a sporting event meant just that: a sporting event. However, now? Sporting events have turned into nothing more than political platforms, sporting better venues, camera coverage and sideline commentary. Oh yes, and a little sporting activity once known as “the game” as to fill in any remaining dead air.

Today, nationally broadcast sporting events have become nothing more than events to be hijacked by the political topic of the day. But maybe “hijacked” is not the correct word. For I’m of the opinion in many such instances – they are either encouraged, are by design, or both. Depending on which political football is to be thrown onto the field of play.

“How To Kill A Brand: Just add the political football” October, 2016

So why is something nearly 5 years old relevant today? Fair question, and it is this, Again, to wit:

Super Bowl Viewership Fumbles To 15-Year-Low

“…the 55th Super Bowl distinctly had the smallest network audience since the very different TV era of 2006.” 

“Super Bowl Viewership Drops To Multi-Decade Low…” Deadline Feb. 9, 2021

Now I know there will be some that will make the argument “Yeah, but streaming was at a record high, so what about that?!” To which I will state…

Streaming was up 69% YoY to 5.7 million. Sounds just fantastic, that is, if you’re not being honest about comparable metrics, because an increase of, let’s say, two or three million from last year that may have “cut the cord” and now watch via streaming, is a mere drop in the bucket compared to the nearly 10 million that didn’t watch this year compared to last. Add that to the same happening now going on 4 years? That equals 10’s of millions that not only left, but are continuing to leave with no sign of coming back.

And I didn’t even mention the rationale that was once given that viewership would likely go up in this time of COVID since barely anyone can attend. That is now, as they say – ancient history.

This year alone we also saw something that was once thought impossible…

Pepsi® didn’t participate, Budweiser® neither.

How long before the stadiums themselves can no-longer participate because their own business models are all but destroyed? Let alone…

Player salaries.

© 2021 Mark St.Cyr

(For Those That Want To Know…what I’m watching) Update

This is what happens when Wall Street not only knows, but can express that knowledge in real time. That knowledge?

All the governing bodies of both the political, as well as regulatory, along with the financing via the Federal Reserve: Has its back.

The result is shown below via a current chart at the opening of Friday’s day session here in the U.S. at around 9:45am EST. Call it a cross between “Mission Accomplished” and “Back on track.”

Millions remaining unemployed, but who cares! We’ve got $1.9 Trillion in stimulus on the way.

Who needs business economic activity when we’ve got the the magic money tree (MMT) ripe for the shaking – again.

All I’ll say to all of this, is this: This suddenly surge skyward from my mockingly described “Empire strikes back” reference was well within the expectations if the “weapon” was successful. So, with that said, all my commentary and what to watch for still stands.

In fact, from a technical viewpoint, keep this point front of mind: Sudden moves like this are usually a presage to an even more stronger move to reinforce the move prior. i.e., The downside odds and calculations have not been altered, because of just how much damage the original move demonstrated breaking the original trajectory.

Here’s that chart. To wit:

As always, we shall see.

© 2021 Mark St.Cyr

Note: This is not trading or investing advice of any sort. This commentary is for “big picture” discussion purposes only. Please read, or re-read the “About This Site” page for any questions or clarifications.

All “Charter Members:” please be aware that your membership had been extended before we went off the air. Some may have missed when I was announcing such during that time.

We have been receiving emails from subscribers having difficulty getting to the show and/or thinking they are no longer members and they’re subscription has expired. That’s true and not true at the same time, here’s why…

Yes, your membership has expired (e.g., it’s been a year), it just now needs to be renewed for another. It’s both simple and is basically the same as your original sign up. Here’s how…

All you need to do is go to the “Account” page first to access your account and renew when/if prompted. There is no credit card needed or extra info to renew. It’s just like when you signed up originally.

Then – go to the “Latest Show and Archives” page. It may ask you to once again log in, even if you already are (this seems to be a bit of a glitch with the reboot) log in again and you should then see the show page. If you do – you’re all set.

If by chance once you renew and then it brings you to a page looking for you to solve a math problem? Just close your browser, clear it, and then come back and go directly to the “Latest show…” page once again – and log in – and you should be good to go.

If there’s any further issue just use the “subscriber support” email in the “Account” section and let us know, we’ll get right on it. But this should alleviate any issues as it is what many have already done successfully when they had the same. And remember – you can always use the “Contact” page. But the “Subscriber support” on the “Account” page is the best.

Thanks to all and let me say: it’s great to see how many returned so quickly. You truly are the best, all of you.

Mark

Years back I used to post examples of what I would come across in my daily transgressions in regards to advertising. As many of you know, I was in that “business” for a very brief stint decades ago, so I have a very tuned eye when I see things that should make those putting out both the ads, as well as running them, take pause. However, what I have found over the years with “pre-programmed” or “robot insertion” of ads – in all media outlets – has shown just how breathtakingly inept “smart” systems can be.

Here’s today’s example…

Over the air waves via a radio station I frequently listen to, I am hearing multiple times a day a commercial for prostrate ailments from none other than the recently deceased Larry King.

Folks, you can’t make this stuff up. To hear Mr. King go on about how this ailment was a problem, but now since he takes this? He sleeps better and like a baby. Can you say: let the ____________ (insert joke here) relativism begin? And that’s just one example, you can do this over a dozen times alone with this one 60 second commercial.

Some may blame the station, but I would blame the product sponsor, because they are the one that paid for the endorsement and I would imagine they know Mr. King has since “Left the building.”

One would think a call would immediately have gone out to pull any ad featuring Mr. King because, in reality, their product can now jokingly be associated with: Maybe he should have just lived with the prostrate issue – and be alive today!

See how this works?

Remember, as a business owner, just because you own the product or company doesn’t mean you ever stop shopping your own store or product. Ever.

Well, unless your Larry King of course, but now everyone else knows that too.

It’s not a good look no matter who says “All news, good or bad, is good advertising.”

Just look what it’s done for Larry King and doing for his sponsor. Or said differently…

It’s not a good look to have a dead person endorsing your product that’s suppose to make living with an illness easier.

Know what I’m sayin’?

© 2021 Mark St.Cyr