Out Of Our Hands

Due to construction outside of the studio (and out of our control) we have been without power for much of the day, therefore, there will be no show today. We will post any updates if something changes.

Thanks,

Mark

Nostalgia

As I was looking through some photos, for varying reasons, I came across this one and it was the date that hit me. To wit:

April 28, 2008

Now here’s the reason why it “hit me.”

The above represents a period of time in my life that some would argue was the “pinnacle” of achievement. e.g., I had just retired (3 years prior), moved to a brand new location in the country with fantastic weather and landscapes that inspire the term “God’s country” every-time you left the house. Moved into a just as beautiful, award winning property, that was better landscaped and appointed than most high end hotels. Again, a multiple award winning development for management and property details.

As you may garner from the above photograph – my smile – just about says it all. i.e., The kid everyone said “would never amount to anything” did all the things everyone said “couldn’t and wouldn’t.” Never-mind successfully grabbing more than one of life’s “Brass Rings.”

I felt precisely, at that moment of time, I hit life’s lottery. Nothing was given, I worked extremely hard for every break, many times with such life changing set backs I wondered if I had more in common with Job than Jobs.

Now the reason why I’m presenting the above is this: I’m not trying to impress you with anything. What I am trying to do is to impress upon you what came after, as a matter of fact, shortly after, because it’s the reason why I do what I do today. In actuality – it’s the genesis for much of it.

So to put the above picture in context I would like to present a few other “pictures” as they call them in Silicon Valley and let them speak for themselves. The “I take a picture” note on the first chart is the precise date the above photo was taken.

I’ve made further notes on them describing their relevance, so without further ado, here they are. To wit:

(Chart Source)
(Chart Source)
(Chart Source)

The reason for all the above is this…

I distinctly remember, like it was yesterday, all the so-called “smart crowd” arguing why the markets were doing this, that and other thing – only to be proven that they had precisely no clue at all, et al.

Now it is the same crowd (and many of the same ones from prior at that) not only saying the same arguments as they did prior, but proselytizing ever-the-more confidently than ever that there’s no reason for concern, because: The Fed’s got your back.

The only issue I’ll ask is this…

What happens when the Fed realizes that no one has theirs? Or for that matter:The “markets” realize it first? e.g., How much longer can Repo-maddness go on? And what happens when it stops? Or the reverse: what happens when everyone knows they can’t stop, ever?

That is when the real craziness will either begin – or end.

As always, we shall see.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

MLK Holiday

Today’s MYTR Broadcast is on holiday in observance of Martin Luther King Day in the U.S. and will return tomorrow.

Below is a short clip from March of 2010 when the iPad® was first being introduced to scores of jeers and finger-pointing on picking such a “stupid name.” It was also being touted as “Who’d in their right mind buy such a thing when they could have a laptop?” At the time of this recording, now a decade old, the results to whom had the right argument is now settled.

Remember: At the time of this recording the entirety of the mainstream business/financial media was playing down this idea and product with jubilant disdain. If you want to get an understanding – just think about how enamored they were with Snapchat™ and its IPO debut with fanfare and more – then – think the same only in the complete opposite direction. That was the reaction to not only the iPad at that time, but also the idea of Apps. i.e., “Who in their right mind would ever buy an App when it’s available on CDs?”

Sound familiar? If it doesn’t, let me put it this way:

“Who in their right mind would question the strength and fundamental underpinnings that are propelling this Bull market?” ________(fill in your mainstream business/financial media pundit of choice here)

Now, since history has recorded the results – it’s proved I was the one far more correct in my assessment of the first two items. And, once again, all during that time to the howls and screeds of said media pundits. How the latter one plays out is still open for debate. But as my track record shows, I seem to have a bit more deductive reasoning power than most of the so-called “smart crowd.”

Although they do still howl and screed like a 2-year-old.

Some things never change.

March 2010 “Thinking Aloud” Series

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Please Bear With Us…

It appears that a few emails are going out as posts as we try and sort things out on the site.

If you see anything bearing the name “test” or “testeroni” or any other super sophisticated test name inspired by NASA (actually Wile E. Coyote, but you get it) just delete and please pardon us for them.

Thanks.

Mark

Because It Needs To Be Said…

This moment of insanity is brought to you by TSLA. For those of you “new kids” not being hip. That would be Tesla™. Yes, the same cars you’re reading about crashing, spontaneously catching fire, ____________(fill in your own here.)

But just like they used to say in days-of-old when all those great saying in Latin terms were being memorized to be memorialized. Let’s use one a bit more modern, but still is of the “dated” variety from pop-culture.

This goes out to everyone that now have to further justify it’s valuation. You know, why it’s now the most valuable car company ever in the U.S. and why. (Not a joke!)

Right now, you’re “cruisin'” in other words, your investment prowess is just as deep as Tom’s line. This is precisely what investing has morphed into. All I’ll finish with is: best of luck with that, honest.

To wit:

(Chart Source)

And speaking of “Make Your Move.” Again, to wit:

Again, best of luck with all that.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

1979 Called – And 2020 Answered

Audio Version of Sunday’s Column: 1979 Called…

Usually I try and stay clear of all that’s political. However, when I do wade into the “pool,” I do my upmost to stay clear of the muck and mud and focus on the, what is.

In other words, what one needs to garner or surmise from the political dialogue, as to what may or will be coming forth in new laws or taxes, in regards to business. Although this is different, the arising consequences are the same. i.e., It’s going to affect everything.

I have been on record far too many times to count that when it comes to understanding this president, you have to view him from a purely business aspect, not the political. Sure, there’s an overarching political calculation, but that comes after the fundamental business equation.

Not fully understanding that implicit dynamic is where most assumptions go awry.

Whether or not one likes or hates him, his administration, _________(fill in your own here) is irrelevant. When it comes to understanding what might be forthcoming via legislation, rhetoric or anything else, the calculus should always be the same. First: What would a business person do in this situation? Then, how would the political aspect (if any) be handled?

For far too long only the latter has been considered by politicians and pundits alike. But as I said, which is now glaringly apparent: this isn’t 1979 and it ain’t coming back in any political calculus. Period.

I’m old enough to remember vividly (I was 19) the images crossing the television sets back in 1979 as Iranian militants seized, then paraded blindfolded American hostages before the world’s eyes. We were told back then (and from our politicians of the time) much the same as Iran’s Supreme Leader echoed this time, as Iranian backed militants embarked on trying to seize an American embassy as some gruesome expression of a 40 year anniversary surprise. e.g., “You can’t do anything.” Hint: We can, we did, and will do more – much more.

As I expressed on my show Friday when trying to give some context, for example as to how many Americans may view the response via the administration with the taking out of Iran’s top military officials, was this: There comes a point when threats will be taken as just that, meaning, they will be dealt with as such. “Bigly.”

This ain’t 1979, and Trump isn’t Carter. But more to the point: There’s a vast swath (I’ll say great majority) of Americans that hold absolutely no quarter for the idea of possibly needing to stock up on yellow ribbon ever again. Ever.

But there’s another part in this mix that’s being overlooked, and it’s this:

There is not a 1979 Iranian populace in play either.

Iranians themselves have grown tired of the 1979 takeover via the militant, Iron-fist of religious rule. This one aspect alone has the possibility of totally disrupting all the communistic visions for world domination being supplanted by China and Russia. Never mind Iran. And no one seems to be taking this into account. Repeat: no one.

Already we see the ping-ponging of deep introspect via the same “smart-crowd” populating the so-called “think tanks” professing such profound insights such as “The Middle-East just turned more dangerous.” and other pearls of wisdom.

These are the same people that got us into all this mess to begin with their “They’ll welcome us as liberators” tripe.

Hint: they didn’t and we should not have followed one word these people espoused. Now, 18 years later, they’re saying if we leave (e.g., Iraq) it could cause chaos! For the record, I’m OK with chaos, for I’m sick of this insanity, but that’s just me.

Going back to the wild card in all of this, what is not being calculated by this entire “smart-crowd” is the very real possibility that the Iranian people themselves might view this as the perfect time to push forward with their own struggle for both freedom of this rule, and once again returning to true self governing. And if that were to take place what happens to the now “China, Russia, Iran alliance?”

I’m not saying or implying a time like that under the Shaw that was supposedly an American puppet. I’m talking about true self rule, whatever they believe is correct. And they seem to be trying to do just that.

Now, because of the pure ideological bent and sheer fanaticism of the media (that’s U.S., not the others, just to clarify) all we ever see are the protests calling for “Death to America!” The reason for it is that’s all that the Iranian leaders will allow to be shown, because everything else is censored, not just to the world, but to its own people.

The people of Iran have been protesting in much the same way as Hong Kong and in similar numbers. But in the U.S., if it’s a protest in Iran – unless it’s against America – the need for coverage is squashed. Literally.

So I’m going to ask this question again, which I asked on my show: What would the world, never-mind the Middle East, look like if the Iranian people threw off the shackles of their current oppressors and became a more democratic country with self rule? How much would that change the calculus for the spread of communism’s world vision (i.e., China’s) for dominance?

China itself would find that all the so-called “alliances” in the Middle East they are trying to build would suddenly fall into a quagmire of second guessing if not outright rejection. I also will contend China is in no way financially stable enough to weather that possibility on a protracted time frame.

To be clear: what I am not advocating for is the U.S. in any way, shape, manner, or form to instigate or have at its decision making calculus the idea that doing this might bring about that. e.g., regime change for the sake of it. No, that’s not what I’m stating at all.

What I am saying is this: If the actions displayed via the administration (e.g. U.S.) in carrying out the strikes, in Baghdad, of a military leader of another nation that is orchestrating said attacks outside of his own country, at the desire and will of Iran’s current leadership to not only kill Americans, but to then profess that there’s nothing we could do? All I’ll say is welcome to the U.S.’s new 2020 Lasik enhanced vision.

Now, the sooner we get out of the entire Middle East entirely, the better. Let this action stand as a stark reminder of its own…

Threaten us? Here’s a pro-tip: It ain’t 1979.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Final Addendum: “Expert” Review and Summary 2019

When it comes to the crypto space there has been no shortage of “Experts” and “Gurus” willing to sell you their advice for $Thousands as long as it’s in cold hard cash via your credit card. But I digress.

Some of these so-called “experts” were on “Bubble-Vision” (aka the mainstream business/financial media) so often the drug company commercials were envious. They came on to tell anyone with a pulse that “This is it! The winter in cryptos was over!!” Then, as had been the case prior, as soon as they said “This is it!” It appeared to be over. And their faces were now seen more commonly on milk-cartons, rather than television. Funny how that happens, no?

Suddenly you had people like Tom Lee openly complaining about people continually asking him on his thoughts for where cryptos were heading. Again, when it was going up he seemed to be taking any and every interview call. Then as it fell, again, he seemed to be unavailable. Scheduling conflicts, I’m sure.

Then you had James Altucher opining about how everyone hated him for his plastering of ads across the media. Hint: No Jim, if I may call you that, I have a feeling it was because you sold them what many realized after the fact to be something that made snake-oil look legitimate. But that’s just me. Do I also need to remind anyone of retire rich on “Weed?” And if you bought (literally) into that also? Again, you have my condolences.

Just to make this point: These people (and those like them because they seemed to be everywhere) when it appeared they, once again, had the winds at their backs as cryptos appeared to be rising from the dead. They all seemed to be chanting in unison “Winter is over!” And of course willing to sell you their advice for an additional fee. (credit cards that transfer payments in cold hard cash to their accounts both recommended and preferred I would garner, but again, that’s just me.)

So with the above for context and history now in the books, how did it all work out? Or, more to the point, who made the better of the call? The so-called “Experts,” “Gurus” or yours truly?

Well, let’s just say, all the aforementioned “experts and gurus” weren’t even close.

Using some charts or, as they like to call them in The Valley, “pictures,” the attached “family album” speaks for itself.

I’ll start from the beginning which was in May of 2019 when things first began to move, and when the television replaced the milk carton. The charts were notated at the time of posting and speak for themselves. I’ll link to the latest article that has all the back-links to the previous as it was an ongoing commentary (Here). To wit:

The above covers the period from May through September. Here are the finals as of December 31, 2019. Again, to wit:

(Chart Source)

And here is how that long projection call performed. Just to reiterate: that channel line was drawn way back in May and the circle in July, all beforehand, meaning – the market had not shown its hand. Now look at how the market twice touched that upper channel line twice and with precision. Think that area wasn’t important? And remember – I drew that line 8 months prior. To wit:

(Chart Source)

Although my ultimate (i.e., “Lottery Target”) of approximately $4K or so was not hit (we got as low as $6500 twice). Both the direction and path was spot on. Everyone told me that my analysis was “off base.” Everyone told me “You just don’t get it!” and more, a lot more. And many were loaded with profanity and insults that made preschoolers appear erudite in comparison. Just like in 2018 – till it ended right where I said it would.

Now, just like the “experts” and “gurus” they followed and shelled out their money to for “advice.” Let’s just say “milk-carton” comes back to mind.

Where will it go in 2020? I have no idea nor do I care, which I have said ad nauseum during these past two years. But the one thing I do know is this…

I had a little bit more of a clue than not just some, but basically, all of the so-called “experts” and “gurus” that were paraded across the media.

The “pictures,” as they say in The Valley, proves it. Period, end of story.

But then again, what do I know.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Happy New Year And Where To From Here

I would like to make two points…

First: I am absolutely ecstatic, as well as humbled, by the response to the “Free Prize Inside” offer. Much like when I released my first book way back in 2012, I did things far different than all the so-called “experts” professed not only should be done, but “must be done” in regards to launch dates, media, PR releases, etc., etc., etc.

Back then I launched in a window which I was told was the absolute worst period of time for any author, let alone an unknown one, which was just days before Christmas.

I was told if you had not been putting out promos (aka ads), giving interviews, pitching it far and wide in any place that would have me, it would fail miserably. Even if I was an accomplished author the odds for success would be near nil. The result?

Within days it was being actively downloaded in over 60 countries to finally reach metrics that would compare to most making the “Best Seller” lists. (on an aside: I documented all those metrics in real-time and have since moved it to “Out of Print” status)

To say I was astonished back then would be an understatement. What has happened so far since last night has, once again, left me flabbergasted.

Within the first hour alone of “Free Prize Inside” you were signing up around the globe in numbers I didn’t think I’d see for weeks. And this was New Year’s Eve! A time when most would tell you “Nobody cares, nobody will probably ready your offer, let alone act.” But you did.

By the end of the night (Midnight U.S., again to reiterate this is New Years Eve!) all my expectations had already been surpassed. Again, I am both ecstatic and humbled.

Second: I’m not usually at a loss for words, and for those of you that have been around me you know that’s saying something. But I do know what I want to make sure I say right now and believe brevity here is fitting. And it is this…

Thank You! You truly are a magnificent group and I am proud to be at your service.

Happy New Year, and here’s to making 2020 another for the record books.

See you then.

Mark

As Goes Globalism – So Goes China

Audio Version of “Sunday’s Column”

The headlines across the media are filled with stories how China is about to surpass not just the U.S., but every other nation in regards to: technology, manufacturing, you name it. As a matter of fact, they must also be far ahead of everyone when it comes to environmental issues also, because last time I checked, I didn’t see any once Hollywood “stars” protesting on the capitol steps in Beijing.

Maybe that’s because getting arrested there doesn’t allow for smiles and selfies in plastic zip-bands. In other words “Fade to black” has a much different meaning in China, which is precisely my point.

Now before we go any further let me make this point clear…

When it comes to pollution, of any type, I’m against the wanton abandonment of what used to be known as “corporate responsibility.” Polluting, where the calculus is made between the health and welfare of a populace versus the wealth and share-price of investors, is despicable. And, should have grave consequences for the latter, and not the other way around.

But when human breathing entered the realm of “Needs to be eradicated!” (no joke, look it up) Let’s just say much of the arguments today are a little hyperbolic. But I digress.

But this isn’t about environmental issues, this is about business and communism going forward into the next decade. And it is here I rest firmly on the standpoint that China not only does not remain the latest and greatest economic superpower status most of the so-called “smart-crowd” believes it to be, but rather, will suffer much the same as the U.S.S.R. (aka Russia pre-1991) Why?

Because they are a communist nation. Period. If you don’t understand that one line, you’re either maleducated or, just not as worldly as you think you are. For if communism worked, then why isn’t Russia more wealthy than China? Go ahead and think on it, I’ll wait.

The one and only reason for China’s assent over the last few decades has been borne via the hollowing out of the once dominant U.S. manufacturing sector.

Under the guise of “globalism” businesses were enticed to pick a side. i.e., profits or patriotism. Guess which side won?

In other words, if profits can be enhanced via moving the operation to a communist nation, well, what’s a business leader to do? And they did just that and more. (need I remind you of NAFTA?)

What the mantra of globalism also did was provide cover for these same business leaders, investors and more to proclaim things that sounded a lot like “It’s not us, it’s the market of today.” Bullcrap! This was the “market” globalists have been building for. Literally.

For those wanting an example of such hypocrisy, all I’ll do is point to everyone’s favorite “investor” known colloquially as “Uncle Warren” aka Warren Buffett.

Remember when he was incessantly touting how he wasn’t paying enough in taxes? You don’t hear about him doing that anymore do you? I wonder if it’s because there’s now an entire field of presidential candidates of his earlier supported party willing to make ask him to “Write the check, today!” Coincidental timing, I’m sure.

Yet, there’s another of ole “Uncle Warren’s” prior moves that also helps put this idea of globalism and its true costs back into the spotlight, where it belongs.

In 2014 it was announced, with no prior warning, that the Fruit Of The Loom® (FOTL) plant located in Jamestown, KY would close its doors and lay off 600 employees within months to move the entire operation to Honduras. Why? Hint: rhymes with “save money.” Here’s the statement. To wit:

The company, owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway but headquartered in Bowling Green, said the move is “part of the company’s ongoing efforts to align its global supply chain” and will allow the company to better use its existing investments to provide products cheaper and faster.

The company said it is moving the plant’s textile operations to Honduras to save money.

The company plans to close the plant in phases from June 8 through Dec. 31.

“This decision is in no way a reflection on the dedication and efforts of the employees in our Jamestown facility, but is a result of a competitive global business environment,” Tony Pelaski, executive vice president and chief operating officer, said in a news release.

It is very devastating,” Hoover said. “Some of the worst news we could possibly hear as a community, not just the 600 jobs but the effect it has on city government, the county government, the school system and local business.”

“Fruit of the Loom to close Jamestown plant, lay off all 600 workers” April 4, 2014 Lexington Herald Leader

Well, at least there was now going to be taxes and paychecks for the population of Honduras. But for the people of KY? I can only guess these former employees reaction as they now had all this “free-time” to watch another sycophantic CNBC™ airing of ole “Uncle Warren” playing the ukulele with the FOTL mascots behind him at his annual share holder meeting. Good times, good times.

So now let me bring it back around to China and why I believe strongly in what I’m arguing…

For a time being (e.g., when China courted the world after its failed attempt via the “Great Leap”) China played the part of “friendly global supply-chain extraordinaire” in many ways far too similar as to how we think when we contemplate a “Manchurian Candidate” in a Hollywood movie.

Nobody suspects anything is or can go wrong, till that moment when the true reality becomes apparent. Today, that true reality is communism. And just like that proverbial “switch” is thrown in the movies China is “throwing” communism across the global stage.

China’s communist ambitions and Iron-fist rule is on full display. And that “genie” can not – and will not – be put back in the bottle.

Xi Jinping has the potential to be Mao on steroids. This is no secret to anyone with a modicum of interest in both China’s past, present and future. Xi did not have himself declared (via abolishing presidential term limits) “Leader for life” because he just liked the title.

No, this is how totalitarian, communist leaders with their sights on world domination act once they believe the time is right. i.e., “My successors failed because they did not go far enough, but I will not because, I will!” And if thinking that line through and contemplating its true correlations doesn’t make your blood run cold? Just wait till you see it happen in real-time. e.g., Hong Kong.

Hong Kong will not be able to protest indefinitely, it is only a matter of time (soon, I’ll add, as in very) before the orders will come down from Beijing to quell the protesting – all of it – and then open for business the next day looking like the conclusion of a Servpro® commecial. e.g., “Like it never even happened.”

Business leaders of all stripes are already nervously wondering if they really need to be “at the office” in regards to anywhere in China, where reports of business leaders suddenly disappearing, and only some re-appearing, happens far more often than one wants to weigh the odds of noodling “Could I be next?” Hint: See Jack Ma for clues.

China has also been deliberately maneuvering for its Renminbi/Yuan to become the next “reserve currency.” Its inclusion into the IMF’s SDR (Special Drawing Rights) was a strategic and tactical win of the moment, but this “win” has more in common with Jack Dorsey’s only meaningful moment as to have Twitter™ included in the S&P. i.e., The underlying business model is really a disaster waiting to happen. (or actually revealed?) But if its in “the basket” people have to own it – till they don’t.

It should be noted that that “till they don’t” part needs to be a bit more focused on, because the day when suddenly Hong Kong by all appearances appears to be “fixed” in overnight fashion, the world will be fully cognizant of the how and why. And China’s rise of inclusion into everything once deemed “democratic” or “the opening of China” will be viewed from a far different lens than what it is today. As a matter of fact, I predict it won’t be viewed at all. Here’s why…

China announced Friday it’s nearing completion of its own GPS (global positioning system) meaning: it will no longer be linked into the U.S.’s.

Nothing wrong with that, but what that also invites to think though is that they will also (much like Iran) will enable itself to cut out the entire web by a flick-of-the-switch. This will make the saying “What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas” pale in comparison. But here’s the part that most are missing…

China today is threatening business leaders, nations and more with its supposed/proposed 5G infrastructure. It all sounds great until you think it all the way through, which most of the so-called “smart-crowd” don’t, won’t or can’t, so I will. Because that’s what I do.

If business leaders are increasingly growing concerned that either they or their people are at risk in China; that their company’s secrets are going to be required to be handed over shared with the politburo; that investment returning to Hong Kong is probably decades away, if ever; tariffs from not just the U.S. but other nations is all but an inevitability; the ever-growing shadow banking crisis, and more than likely, currency devaluation that’s on the horizon; ________(fill in the many I left out here): who is it that’s going to remain in China, let alone move their company there? “Bueller?

It is very possible that China has reached a milestone for technological and manufacturing dominance. The problem is, as is the problem with all communist countries and its leaders:

That is usually the moment everyone else sees things for what they really are and will no longer invest or trade freely with them, leaving them (China) to rely solely on the wealth and health of their own populace. There’s a reason why this should be a reason for concern.

Again, China has made great strides since the debacle of the original “Great Leap.” However, the very real problem now facing China is that with all the improvements it’s made – this might be as good as it gets. Why? Like I said…

It’s called “communism” for a reason. And its legacy is spread far and wide for anyone willing to look. But you have to open your eyes first.

© 2019 Mark St.Cyr