Followup: For Those That…

I wanted to followup on my prior observations and how it played out. Here’s said followup. To wit:

(Chart Source)

The above is important to ponder because of this reasoning…

First: Although the “market” appeared to be following the assumed path discussed prior, following within the highlighted channel in text book form (see the perfect touch and reversal marked with “First…”). It ran completely out of steam and never gained a modicum of strength the moment the European markets closed at 11:30am ET.

Second: Due to the nature of what today represented (e.g., Month/Quarter end) it was striking just how exhausted or flaccid this touted “new bull market” petered out with barely a whimper into the close.

Third: It continued (as well as continues as I type this in the new overnight session) to fall ever further in the remaining 15 minutes of futures. Every-time I look up at the above all that comes to mind is the word: wilting. Usually a finish into this type of day has momentum one way or the other, not the obvious deflating appearance that it demonstrated today.

“So what does this mean?” I can hear you asking and it’s a good question, because this rather paltry showing of any remaining strength might just be the strongest clue for where it’s going in the very near future. i.e., Something wicked this way comes.

It’s very possible, as well as plausible, that all of the oomph that set into motion the myriad of so-called “smart-crowd” to run over their mothers as to get in front of the nearest camera, keyboard and microphone to signal some sort of “all clear,” was nothing more than the phenom of a very oversold market that met a bunch of front runners (aka “HFT parasitical bots”) to feast on the well publicized pension re-balancing that needed to take place over the past several days. In other words – the re-balancing was over as of yesterday, and today, it had to stand on its own – and it just folded out of both exhaustion, as well as no further need to buy/sell or balance.

If the above has any merit it doesn’t change any of my prior prognostications of where this “market” might be going or venturing next. As a matter of fact – it further enforces that opinion.

As always, we shall see.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

For Those That Want To Know

I’ve been inundated with calls and more about what I’m watching in regards to the “markets,” especially in regards to this so-called “new bull market.” Don’t blame me for the sarcasm sounding quote. That has actually been used in both print, radio and TV. And they wonder why no one views them as credible, but I digress.

As I’ve stated on my show, I view the recent gyrations over the past few days as nothing more than month-end/quarter positioning. Remember: there are more shenanigans that happen at any month/quarter end than almost at any other time. So with that said here’s what I’m looking for in terms of my prognosis. To wit:

(Chart Source)

The above is a chart of the S&P 500™ represented via 15 minute bars/candles as of the cash close today. I believe we’ll end up in that darker shaded area within the channel to both close out the month and maybe even go a bit higher on April 1st to start the new month, probably breaking up and out of the channel (doesn’t have to but odds favor it) to then pursue a rather steep path downward towards the lower arrow. It is quite conceivable there are two outcomes should this happen.

The first: We find some sort of support there and then migrate back upwards.

Or: we could break through that area and not find any real support until the index is well below 2000, sporting handles that begin with 19 or worse – 18.

Doesn’t mean it will, this is just how I’m viewing what I’m seeing and thinking if my “reading of the tea leaves” is correct – that’s what I’m watching to take place in confirming it.

Let me also state for anyone new: This is not trading advice or anything of the sort. This is only my interpretation of how I’m envisioning these “markets” under the current circumstances. For as I always make clear: If anyone tells you they know what’s going to happen next don’t just walk away, but run – and fast!

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction

(No subscription required now through Easter Sunday)

For those that have been following my work over the years they’ve heard me use the term “I’m probably the most famous person you’ve never heard of.” countless times. The reason for that is because many times my articles, quotes or something other will be strewn across many of the largest media sources around the globe, and yet, my name may be barely a mention.

I use the “Reuters™ is reporting…” analogy for example to explain this phenom. Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not complaining by any stretch of the imagination. It just – is what it is. The comforting fact of this is what I state all the time: It doesn’t matter if no one believes me, I know the truth and can back it up if needed.

This is a far different position for expressing whether or not you truly have some form of thought leadership track record, as opposed to others that claim they do only to produce metrics and more that can easily be paid for (and very cheaply I’ll add). Or, paid for some article to be run featuring them in one of the many formally highly coveted “newsstand” cover stories. Yes, paid. You’d be surprised how many “top” business leaders, motivational speakers, social-media gurus and others fall into this list. Hint: you’d be stunned just how many and who.

So with the above for context I would like to show you something a friend of mine just sent me asking, “Are you in this?” To which I replied: Of course, can’t you read my name right there in bold letters?!” (cue sarcasm alert here) To wit:

(Image source Screenshot via InfoWars)

For those that may not remember I have used InfoWars™ in many an example when a few years back as they were at their peak (before all the shadow and now outright banning on some platforms) that I never understood the term “gone viral” in regards to web content till I landed on their front-page.

I have no personal contact or knowledge of anyone connected there, but as most of my material found its way on various media sites suddenly – there I was. It was an eye-opening experience, to say the least, to experience when a website claims they have 10’s of millions of page views (i.e., probably overstating by factors of 10) to suddenly find out – it’s probably an understatement!

What the above is displaying is the interview I did with Charles on my show back in December of last year, that he re-posted onto his own blog. Please let me emphasize this point: don’t get me wrong, I am not complaining about anything here. What I’m doing is trying to put examples to show why it’s so important to understand metrics and what to know about those metrics as to both not only not kid yourself, but to also, not beat yourself up when you think you’re having no impact.

You have to know how to both gauge and interpret. And its an art-form most have no idea even exists never mind read or interpret correctly. (i.e., see recent Madonna in bathtub video, or better yet, maybe not)

If you look at the above my name, my show or anything else to do with me is no where to be found on the above. But that’s the way it goes if you want to play in these waters and be able to spout the line of “thought leader.” Because either you’re making news – even if your name isn’t mentioned – or you’re more than likely just posing and saying that you are.

And the magazine racks are filled with that type. Oh yeah, and also all those “Who’s Who” books. But I digress.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

On a side note: Charles’ work shows up much the same way as mine does (or did) across the web and media. i.e., He doesn’t submit much of his work, rather, many a media site just scrapes and reprints with his implied permission. And when it comes to metrics? As I say of “not kidding yourself.” Many times I have given the example that if you put my published articles into book form from over the past 10 years they would fill a library shelf. I’ve even put a picture portraying that argument for effect on the website. It’s a fairly impressive stack and is verifiable. That is, until you compare its equivalent with Charles. For not only has Charles written about 10 books I know of (and you should visit his site and purchase one because they’re worth it and he’s having a sale) but if my posts could fill a library shelf (albeit a small one) in book form – his can fill the rest of the entire library! The word “prolific” is an absolute understatement.


Context

(No subscription required now through Easter Sunday)

I stated on the show over the past few days that the current market moves are mere blips compared to what only weeks ago appeared as gigantic moves of enormous size and scope. To reiterate, it was mere weeks ago that represented what was the essence of what had been transpiring for years. i.e., that a one or two percent daily move was looked upon as “What a day!” territory.

Today – it’s hardly a blip, literally.

To illustrate this point I’m posting a chart of the S&P 500™ represented via 15 min bars/candle intervals as of this writing, approximately 1:00pm ET. The red arrow in the lower right-hand corner represents a nearly 9% move from the opening bell till this posting. And no, that’s not a typo. The Dow itself is up over nine percent, again, as of this writing.

Here’s that chart. To wit:

(Chart Source)

Context: Absolutely stunning no matter how you view it.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Imagine That

(No subscription required now through Easter Sunday)

One would be hard pressed to not know the recent backlash being dolled out to many a Hollywood celebrity in response to a few singing John Lennon’s “Imagine” and a few other examples.

The problem with all this is not everyone else – it’s Hollywood itself. i.e., No one really cares what they think. Never have, never will.

In today’s “all access” backdrop with social platforms of various forms celebrities have fallen in love with the notion that if they have “followers” that means they must, by dint, be a leader. Here’s a pro-tip for Hollywood and anyone else enamored with social…

You’re not a leader in any sense of the word. All you are is a lesser version of the fictional character you role play. And without the expertise of the director, camera crew, lighting and makeup team, editing crew and more? Your attempts to suddenly play “leader” will make any B-rated sci-fi that appears on Mystery Science Theater 3000™ look down right Shakespearean and award worthy in comparison.

The rise of social media gave the fictional story that these people are as important as they think they are. The only thing worse has been their acting on this self-perpetuated impulse. Alyssa Milano, Chelsea Handler anyone? Feel free to insert your own list here:

So obvious is this now becoming to everyone that even The Atlantic™ came out with an article expressing their own take on just how pathetic their recent excursions into public outreach.

The issue with the article that caught even me by surprise (and it’s worth the read IMHO) is just how fast it was written and published. i.e., as in real-time.

To me that alone says volumes, because it means even people (or outlets) who are normally quite forgiving to Hollywood and its stars are now no longer because, I would assume, under the bright lights of the right circumstances – self-absorbed and tone-deaf really shows.

(Here’s a bit on what I said about all this in 2016 and here in 2017)

I believe we are at that moment in time when “Imagine” inspires the exact opposite of what Hollywood ever expected, and in the theme of the inspired song…

Imagine no one cares…
About what you think…
It isn’t hard to do…

Or: Just read your latest press.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Addendum To “Crazy Talk…”

Using the chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average™ Index once again since it seems to be the one everyone (and I do mean everyone) is keenly focused on. I further notated my earlier example with the closing prices of today.

So in homage to the great Rod Stewart as he crooned “Every picture tells a story, don’t it?” Then the following “picture” as they call them in “The Valley” not only speaks volumes…

It speaks for itself. To wit:

(Chart Source)

And there you have it, that is, for now. (For original article click here)

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Crazy Talk Has Now Become Reality

I will put up a few charts later on this evening once the “markets” close however, I just wanted to add a moment of reality of just where we are, when it was only months ago, I argued this was precisely where the “markets” would be in the coming weeks and months.

The statement I made was in October of 2018 where I argued, “Look for the ‘Trump Bump’ to be erased in due course.” based on the then Fed policy, along with other things.

Over the following weeks it took out nearly three quarters of its rocket-ride and didn’t reverse until Fed. Chair Powell reversed everything he and his predecessor instituted and then some.

During that period I have been adamant in my stance of “it’s only temporary (i.e., Record highs) because the underlying damage had already been done and just reversing policies wouldn’t do anything more than superficially hold up an already crumbling foundation.

All it needed was a catalyst. Any catalyst. And what would happen next would be unimaginable. i.e., “It would take out the “Christmas Bottom” of 2018 and probably in short order then proceed to take out any all gains since the election. All during the run up I never changed my position.

This was “Crazy talk!” I was told over, and over, and over again.

That “crazy talk” has now become reality.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

Addendum:

Here’s a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average™ I did quickly after I posted the above to give reference. To wit:

(Chart Source)

Here it is again further notated and with today’s closing prices.

(Chart Source)

From Omnipotence To Impotence

I’m writing this at about 8:00pm ET after digesting what I heard on the conference call between reporters for the mainstream media, both general news, business/financial and Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. The questions and the responses were in many ways surreal.

When it came to the questions posed they sounded like they were being asked by people who had absolutely no clue on what they were asking or why. It had the feel of “Hey, this one sounds like it will make me look smart, but I really have no idea what it means, but I’ll ask it anyway just to hear the answer.” The only issue worse were the answers many times coming from Mr. Powell seemed almost as inane. I was left slack-jawed far too many times for my own comfort.

With that said, here are the two main takeaways that say it all. First…

Approximately 45 minutes before the U.S. futures markets opened (e.g., 6:00pm ET) the Fed dumped interest rates by 100 bases points effectively bring it down to zero. (e.g., 0.0 to 0.25 target range) In addition they set the “printing presses” into hyper-drive with an additional $700 Billion of QE (quantitative easing).

So dismissive of whether it’s now QE or another round of the now analogous “Not QE” the Fed Chair basically stated (paraphrasing) “I really don’t care what its called.” All I’ll say to that is: All righty then!

Why this is so important to understand is the context, because this is on top of the already “throwing of the kitchen sink” at the markets just a week or so ago, and literally could not wait even three more days till its official conclave on Wednesday. This is absolute panic coming out of the Eccles Building. I use the example of China’s PBoC throwing not just “the sink” via its latest policy actions but “throwing the entire restaurant.” In equivalent terms – The Fed didn’t just “throw the restaurant.” It threw the “entire dining district of NYC!”

The true issue now stands to where I alluded to which there were two issues. The above is the first. The second?

Where over the past 11 years every time the Fed. surprised the market with even a hint that they were going to print more money – the markets rose, giving rise to the term “BTFD” (buy the f’n dip) When they actually delivered on that promise it was BTFD horns-over-hooves. But when the surprised the market and printed money like it was on sale? It was BTFD not just with backing up the truck, but backing up the earth-mover! Need I remind you of January 2019 after the famous “Call from Cabo” via a vacationing Secretary Mnuchin and the follow thru via Mr. Powell?

So what happened this time? Hint: Rhymes with “Lock-Limit-Down.”

The futures were open for as many minutes (and it was no more than about 10 or 15) to fill the sell orders to reach the shut off 5% down and are now closed till tomorrow’s cash open 9:30am ET.

And that dear reader is all you need to know to understand just how perilous of a situation these “markets” are in. Just as I warned back in November of 2019.

But it was I that was told “Mark, you worry too much, after-all, the Fed’s got our back!” And they knew this to be true, how?

Some guy that bangs buzzers touting financial advice told them so.

But then again he’s on TV so he must know what he’s talking about right? Right?

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

F.T.W.S.I.J.D.G.I.G.T.

(For those who say I just don’t get it…get this)

I’m putting another of these “FTW…” articles up because I was just alerted to the most recent move in Bitcoin™.

As many of you know I made a prediction at the beginning of 2019 where I thought it would finish the year. It came close, but it was considered near pin-point clairvoyance in respect to all the so-called “gurus” or “experts” were spewing.

For those that may not have been around, I predicted the year end target in 2018 with pin-point accuracy. (e.g. calling for 3K when it was at 17K)

So why this post? It’s because of this. First, a reminder from December 31, 2019. To wit:

(Chart Source)

And here we are just nine weeks later, again, to wit:

Please forgive the hand drawn element to represent the bars/candles, because as I tried to use the platform where I originally made them their website has been absolutely unstable today. At least that has been my experience, but it would be par for the course on platforms everywhere with what took place today. We should be happy that they were even running at all. And I mean that.

As I’m typing this Bitcoin is bouncing in and around the 4500 level, which would put it inside the top of my original call circle.

So you might be saying “Well, yeah – but so what, you missed it by weeks so your wrong, right?”

Here’s where I’ll counter: Absolutely not, and proves I’ve been the one with the correct argument all along, for this solidifies that argument. Here’s why…

Bitcoin is told-and-sold as the, and by the I mean just that – the – ultimate hedge against Central Bank money printing. And with the Federal Reserve unleashing an unprecedented amount of liquidity today alone of $4,000,000,000,000.00 (That’s four trillion! No, not a typo.) to be exact over the next month. Aaannnnddd: you also have in conjunction the Bank of Japan, ECB, PBoC, and others doing similar.

Bitcoin not only didn’t go up or at least remain stable at current elevated levels – It crashed, and crashed more than any other.

I mean surely – wouldn’t it be the perfect replacement for all that dirty virus filled money known as cash? Hmmmmmm?

No, it was a fairy tale told-and-sold till its story became clear – it was all a sham. Period.

And that dear readers, is that.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr

For Those Wondering What I’m Watching

As I stated on my show today there are movements happening within the “markets” that seem to be playing out almost a bit too textbook. We’ve bounced up and down and back again touching very significant indicator levels such as that on the Fibonacci scale and more.

“What does it all mean?” I can hear you say. Well, as I said prior, no one knows for sure, and for those that will tell you they do, don’t just walk away, but run and fast!

However with that said there are some very significant voting taking place in the U.S. and the outcome could shed more light on how this “market” wants to view or anticipate a possible Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden outcome.

I’m going to post two charts. The first is from the cash session in the U.S. using the S&P 500™ via 15 minute candles/bar intervals. I’ve noted it although to a trained eye it’s pretty self explanatory. i.e., it’s making text book technical moves that are implying a very real possible reversal. Reversal meaning – significantly lower.

The second chart is of the S&P futures via the E-mini™ as I type this. (approximately 8:15pm ET) Again, it too is expressing similar text book patterning of up, downs and more much like the cash session. Yet, if this pattern resolves to the down side with vigor during the overnight – this is where it could mean a morning that makes the last “limit down” look down right tame in comparison.

Remember: this doesn’t mean it will – but that’s what I’m watching.

As always, we shall see.

(Chart Source)

(Chart Source)

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr