25K vs 40MM

Originally I was going to write and post a few housekeeping notes concerning both the website and the broadcast (you’ll find those at the bottom). But it seemed I had yet to even touch my first coffee when I was barraged by a few friends to discuss the current rip roaring “Bull Market” which I’ve surely both gotten wrong and want to change my stance.

Let’s just say the lines went quiet when I said: Why?

Depending on when you’re reading this, here in the U.S., the markets have opened up, once again, multiple percentage points. As I type this the S&P 500™ is now over 3000. The Dow™ 25,000. And the NASDAQ™ is within spitting distance of scoring another “Never before seen in the history of mankind” higher high. So what’s not to be bullish about is the general consensus.

Let me put it this way: Because it’s all bullsh#t and will end even worse I believe sooner (much sooner actually) than later. For as my favorite Riddler (Frank Gorshin) would say, “Riddle me this…”

When does: Emergency Unemployment Insurance ending; Rent and Mortgage Forbearance Ending; $1200 Emergency Handouts Spent; Election Uncertainty; China and U.S. trade deals collapsing; Unemployment nearing 20% plus and rising; and most of the global civilization still on lock-down orders equate to a Bull Market in stocks? (i.e. 25K in the Dow with 40mm (that’s million) unemployed in the U.S. alone.)

Hint: When all the Central Banks print more and more money and buy those very “markets.” (insert “rim-shot” here)

There’s another reason why you’re seeing these latest “pops” in the markets: There’s no one else in them. i.e., the volume that’s moving these markets too-and-fro is less than anemic. And when you’re in that time frame known as “Month-end window dressing.” The pops and hits just keep on coming – until they don’t.

This is the reason why I stopped commenting on the markets, for there’s nothing to gain for insight in regards to the health or well being of a company, or economy for that matter.

Why?

Because they are no longer markets – they are adulterated, perverted creations of Central Banks. If one does not understand this by now – there’s nothing more I can say to you but best of luck in whatever your pursuits. And I mean that.

As of now I only comment on said “markets” based on what I see via a technical perspective. I’ve been running a commentary based on it via a technical analysis framing. For many this is one of the most frustrating times for heeding any warning signals for far too many get caught flatfooted when what looked like a “This is it!” moment turns into another waiting for Godot. Then they assume, wrongly, all prior warnings were the equivalent of “Chicken Little.”

Remember: It is what it is – till it isn’t. Lest I remind you of another childhood story that featured a boy, dike and a finger. This is more along the line of rhymes we are facing in my humble opinion.

“So why do you still comment at all?” I can hear you ask through my monitors, and it’s a very fair question.

The only reason why I started this commentary and have been updating it is for the sheer fact that no one, repeat, no one in the mainstream business/financial media seems to be even aware of what we’re facing.

The “signals” that they are reporting as “forward looking” and more are specious at best and down right lies at worst. There is no economy currently running on the face of this little rock we call Earth that warrants “markets” at near human history highs as most are facing unemployment that makes Great Depression figures look like a hiccup.

There will be a turning point (again, I believe before the Nov. election) that will rival what we seen in March. I’m just trying my best to relay what I see via a technical perspective in a way that helps those that want to be kept abreast of what may, or may not be at hand. Yet – emphasis on “yet.

Could I be wrong? Of course I could. But all I would ask is that you go back a bit and remember that more often than not I’ve been frustratingly early – not wrong. That’s a distinction with a very big difference, which is very unlike the buzzer-banger et. al. And if you were one of those that followed his advice back in March? How does it feel to be back to “even?” Good times, no?

For my last commentary on this “market” today I’ll just leave you with the following chart that I’ve used to notate certain gyrations since April. To wit:

(Chart Source)

The above represents the S&P 500 as I type this. What it depicts via a technical analysis deduction is this: That gold colored box represents the next area one would look for a reversal should the prior (see blue area) be vacated. In other words: this is doing nothing, repeat, nothing different than what patterns such as these have expressed with high odds. It is only the size and scope that has most thinking and insinuating all the “bad” is over and done with ala Jeremy Siegel style.

This is precisely another reason why I’ve been running my commentary: It is people like the a fore mentioned that insinuate and declare such things during these types of moves that set up far too many for disastrous results by catching the most amount of people, at the absolute worst time, flat-footed. Why? Because they are declared and treated as so-called “experts” across said mainstream business/financial media.

So there you have it.

But enough with that and onto coming changes to the site and show.

First…

The updates to the site over the holiday weekend went far better than anticipated. Thank you to all for your patience. There will be more, but for now, we are good to go.

Speaking of go…

The MYTR Broadcast is coming out of hiatus in the coming weeks. I’m delighted on the direction it’s going and will discuss more and announce when appropriate.

So stay tuned.

© 2020 Mark St.Cyr