I am putting up the latest to my on going commentary of what I’m watching in the “markets” for those that want to know, which seems to be quite a few judging by inquiries. So with that I would like to address something I’ve found, once again, to be quite amusing. i.e., listening to the so-called “smart crowd” pontificate the reasons for this, that or another thing.
Nothing has been as hysterical as to hear many of the mainstream business/financial media drone on as to why “This is it!” as to mark the next bull run is upon us since yesterdays gyrations began with the most highest ever recorded tick count (a technical measure of buying or selling demand).
Again, the highest ever recorded in the history of the market.
Sounds pretty impressive does it not?
Well it is, but it’s only half the story. The other half is the way such charlatans such as the buzzer-banger et. al. try to spin it into hype mania, which I find comical.
The issue I have is that it is very easy for one to be impressed, that is, if one doesn’t take it or any other measurement, record breaking or not, and put it into perspective. The issue for many is they have no true comparative perspective. All they know is what they’ve grown up with or used to.
To give an example to show just that, let me use the following to help illustrate what I’m alluding to using a music reference.
Remember all the hyped up press about how Ariana Grande “smashed” a prior record held by the Beatles? e.g., Both held the #1, 2 and 3 positions on Billboard™ Hot 100 simultaneously.
Was it a worthy milestone? Of course. But is it the same accomplishment in true comparisons?
Most people have no clue who she is or could name a song unless of her age group and fan base. The Beatles? Every one both knew, could sing, and could pick any one of them out in a crowd of thousands. Most couldn’t pick out Ms. Grande in a line up of 2 if their life depended on it. Nothing against Ms. Grande, seems like quite a talent, but there’s no comparison. The metrics to do so from 1964 are now so watered down, manipulated and more – its an irrelevant measurement for comparisons.
Yesterday’s record breaking “Moonshot to the stars!” taking place within the capital markets is about the same in equivalence in my view, here’s why. To wit:
The above is one of the charts I’ve used in my ongoing commentary. I used the above in an article I wrote on April 28th. In it I posited that the area the “markets” had risen to since the initial downfall was precisely an area known in technical analysis as “text book fib retracement” (the blue box). i.e., The initial moves lower and subsequent reversal higher were quite extraordinary in regards to how they “feel” because of the sheer point values and money equated to those values. But in terms of structure? It’s something that takes place countless times a day in different variations of size, nothing more.
So, with that said, let me show you another chart which I noted at the close today, again, to wit:
The above is the equivalent of Ariana and The Beatles. Both are able to claim fame to holding a “Record Breaking” moment. But only one sang and wrote a hit called “Nowhere Man.” The other just shows it’s gone nowhere near as far or high as the mainstream business/financial media want to spin it.
Can it go higher? Sure can. But with all the press this “market” has been getting since last month it has more in common with “One Hit Wonder” when you put things into the proper perspective.
As always, we shall see.
© 2020 Mark St.Cyr