I received a call from a colleague asking my thoughts on the nascent moves in the “markets.” Here’s the gist of what I said, for those that may want to know.
As you know I’ve been on record, I believe the entirety of the so-called “Trump bump” will probably be erased sometime this year. Everyone thought I was crazy when I first put that forward last year, then approx. 75% of it wiped clean in a matter of weeks until the “extraordinary measures” posture returned.
As I keep saying, the damage has already been done, and all that’s been happening is people, the “markets” what ever, have been hoping, praying and more that this “band aid” approach will work. I have remained, and still do, that it wouldn’t. And now it appears to be expressing itself.
From a technical view, what I find intriguing is when you view the S&P 500™ through a weekly chart, the trend-lines that are textbook type watch patterns line up eerily precise with the full 100% expression of wiping out the entirety of it (e.g., “Trump Bump”) to the level, day and year end time-frame.
It’s an amazing coincidence of congruence. Nevertheless, the patters are what they are, and when paired against the current back drop of political circumstances, as well as basic psychological behavior. I stand with my original call more than ever.
Below is a chart showing the above in visual form. To wit:
As always, we shall see.
© 2019 Mark St.Cyr