I received a note from a friend asking me the following (paraphrasing): “I’m not that skilled at technical analysis, but that pattern appears to have been rendered null or void, because the market actually went higher after it broke out. So isn’t that a contradictory set up to your first analysis?”
Let me explain it this way without trying to put on some seminar with this brief statement…
Yes, what my friend said has validity, however, what happens far more often than not (which I’ve shown many times previous) is sometimes one pattern resolves itself into an even larger one that implies the same resolution, but the degree of scale may now be greater.
The trick, as the say, is being both adept, as well as flexible to interpreting what may actually be unfolding as expressed via any chart.
(And for those wondering: the above did, I just didn’t include it, because again, I’m not trying to put on some seminar.)
Just remember, for it must be pointed out: there is no Holy Grail. Period. It’s all based on honed interpretation skills while paying respect to demonstrated results over time that give an inclination to apply reasonable odds. Nothing more.
As I always say: If someone tells you they do have one? Don’t just walk away, but run, and fast.
So with that clarified, the reason why I’m bringing this subject up again, is this same person asked me for my current thoughts on Bitcoin™ and if they’ve changed. The reason why they’re asking? It’s going up – again.
As I’ve said ad nauseam: When it’s going down and my phone doesn’t ring – I know it’s them. But I digress.
To help clarify what I sent them, I just so happened to had made another chart a few days ago when speaking to someone else, asking me similar questions, but in a bit more detail.
The reason why I had made this chart was they were a bit like trying to get an update or, read my temperature since I made my earlier thoughts, which you can find (here.) Below is my current observation. To wit:
The above speaks for itself, where even the most novice of chart readers can understand it. But just for a bit of legend info: the above represents Bitcoin via 4hr candle/bars.
Don’t concern yourselves with the what or, why I drew assorted Fibonacci levels or sequences. All that needs to be watched (if you care to) is what I notated on that chart.
If the unfolding price action remains somewhat contained within that channel – I believe my prior argument remains intact.
Could it happen tomorrow? Sure could. Could it also go as famously stated by Buzz Lightyear® “To infinity and beyond!” Nobody knows for sure. But my call is already on the table and by the looks of the above, which is the most recent gyrations since this was all said to be the end of winter, that the “winter of discontent” may not truly be over as so many of the so-called “gurus” professed.
I just want to add one last thing when it comes to much of the recent “mania” reigniting in Bitcoin…
Every time there is social upheaval, unrest or threats of clamping down on China’s currency routes to “Get the heck out of Dodge.” Bitcoin sees a surge. Soon as it appears to be tamped down? So too does the resulting gains many thought were all but “a sure bet.”
Have you seen the news in regards to Hong Kong lately? I’ll just leave it at that and let the above speak for itself.
As always, we shall see.
© 2019 Mark St.Cyr