As I type this the markets are beginning to roil in many different areas across the globe. The latest tariffs announced last night for Mexico seems to have caught everyone by surprise, especially for those thinking their month end positioning was fairly stable. Hint: it’s not – and that’s a very big problem if it becomes a self-fulfilling negative feedback loop.
So in that light let me put up what I see as a possible path for these “markets” if there isn’t some sort of “deal” or emergency action via the Fed et al. To wit:
The above is the S&P 500™ futures as of this writing represented via weekly bars/candles. I have notated areas and projections that I feel speak for themselves.
Will this happen? No one knows, however, if many of the reasons for caution I have been calling for and warning about progress, than this is a very plausible scenario. Again, plausible, possible, probable, __________(fill in your own here) because no one knows. And if they say they do? Don’t walk, but run – and fast.
The real implications of the above are for the reasons I’ve been warning about for what now seems like forever. i.e., How different of a business world are we in should the above play out as hypothesized?
For some it will be devastating. For others, like those of you that have taken my calls for caution and have been preparing, this is where the next round of true opportunities will be born.
As always, we shall see.
© 2019 Mark St.Cyr