Over the past few weeks there has been a plethora of sudden “confident calls” that the now deemed “winter” for Bitcoin™ or, crytos in general is now over, and they can get back to selling the ideas (literally) that the riches everyone lost prior are about to be made whole – and then some.
Make that “A lot some!” when listening to most of the arguments given.
That may be true and, of course, may not. As always we’re going to have to wait and see just what transpires.
I have been of the camp (and still remain) that the sudden interest in the space, once again, is via the result of a sudden panic from China and others to move their money as quickly as possible before the authorities lash everything down.
I have also argued that there has probably been some rolling for some of the recently
scammed acquired IPO profits into Bitcoin or others that has helped move the needle of this seemingly left-for-dead phenom only a couple of months prior.
The issue that will help show the argument for one side or the other more conclusively (i.e., “the winter is over” or “it’s just a blip or ephemeral type move regardless of size”) should become more clear very soon, as in, where the entire space goes from here.
And since I seemed to had been the only one that correctly assumed or predicted on-the-record where it would end up last time e.g., around $4K. I thought it was only fair to “throw my hat into the ring” as they say, once again, since it appears all the others are feeling more confident to visit the open air and declare their now confident stance rather, than remain in the deep bunkers where their faces have been more prominent on milk cartons than the mainstream business/financial media shows.
So with that all said here is mine. To wit:
The above is a daily chart of Bitcoin as of this writing. As one can see I have given the “winter is over” argument quite a bit more leeway than my “it’s a blip…” argument. However, if for some reason the price suddenly jumps up and goes into the upper area, I would be hesitant to call “it’s a decided moment.” The reasoning is simple:
Everything via the trade war and global markets are now in flux and a panic situation can make things appear or, seem to be something they are not.
So with that said the above helps give clues to which argument may have more weight, because if for some reason it suddenly spikes higher into that upper zone and then falls back to re-enter that shaded channel area? The argument becomes more settled to the potential for much lower lows rather, than much higher highs.
On the other hand:
If it gets up there and stays there, and then breaks even higher? Then the potential that “winter is over” begins to make more sense.
As I always say: we shall see.
But at least I’ve put my argument out there and on the record for those who want to know.
© 2019 Mark St.Cyr