Day: May 5, 2019

Bitcoin: Wake Me at $20K

“Have you heard the news? Bitcoin™ has been on a tear!” That’s usually how many a conversation started when I spoke to anyone over the last few weeks. It would appear, once again, that the coin-of-the-realm in regards to the retirement road-to-riches is, once again, Bitcoin.

Here has been my own coin-of-the-realm response to such nonsense: Who freaking cares.

Now I know there are a lot of you reading right now that believe almost to a fault the entire Bitcoin narrative. After all, there was a time on CNBC™ saying anything against it would get you vilified and insulted on camera. But that was when it was in-and-around $20K.

Now since it went from one two handle ($20K) to almost sporting it again, only for $2K, even the retire with bitcoin guru (my conjecture) snake-oil purveyor James Altucher (harsh, yes, but that’s my opinion, your mileage may vary) seems to have moved on, and on, and on again to where you’re beginning to need a scorecard to keep track of his latest offerings, but I digress.

For those now thinking “Well who are you, or what gives you the right to comment?” Here’s what does: I was one of the only one’s giving a year-end target price for Bitcoin of in-and-around $4K. And was correct.

All the other “gurus” like Tom Lee, Tim Draper, and on, and on were calling for $50K and higher. Remember, this was in February of that year and some were even calling for six-figured prices. And were wrong.

Again, not just wrong, but rather – stunningly, amazingly, stupendously, seemed not to have any clue about what they were talking about, wrong. And these were the so-called “experts” paraded across the media.

“So why the ‘wake me’ in the headline? Is it because I think it’s going there?” some are asking with bated breath. Here’s why: Just to watch the reaction.

Personally, I like a good joke and like to laugh. So when (or if) it ever were to do it, I would find it laughable watching those that have have crawled back under their rocks to re-emerge and profess how they were right all along. Hint: they wouldn’t be and here’s why.

If you bought Bitcoin during the manic phase when all these “gurus” were telling and selling you how to retire and get rich. Even if it tripled from its current level – you would more than likely still be in a losing position, maybe, at best, you would be at break even.

Think about that very carefully, for that’s where the salt-in-the-would of portfolios everywhere truly meets the scathing rub. The reason for it is simple: It’s math – not narrative. And all that’s being told and sold currently is about as ephemeral as the profit in a debut IPO.

Sorry, too soon?

However, the above just happens to be the perfect segue into why I feel there has been a rise in Bitcoin that no one else seems to be contemplating.

Let me put it in the form of a question and see if you can see where I’m going, ready? Or maybe I’ll form it the way one of my favorite Batman® characters, The Riddler (Frank Gorshin) would. e.g., “Riddle me this!”

“What mythical creature can be bought and sold that allows another of similar status to bought and sold with other peoples money real money, yet, neither was real to begin with and both are creations that only live in the ether?”

Answer: Use some of the scam profits of an IPO and put some to work into Bitcoin to start another “buzz” so the naive will think “This is it!” again and you can unlock (i.e., sell) some of your pre-mania Bitcoin profits at a higher levels.

If you look at when Bitcoin took off recently (actually resuscitated is probably a better term) it is almost to the day when the IPO slaughter sales began hitting the tape. And now that they’ve slowed? So too has Bitcoin.

Coincidence? All misplaced conjecture? Sure, why not. But it’s far more of a probability to explain what is currently going on than what I’ve heard professed elsewhere. Why?

Because it makes sense, and using the principle of Occam’s Razor it fits even better. For Bitcoin (Bitcoin – not the entirety or the idea of cryptos’ in general) is, in my humble opinion, nothing more than a scam gauge, or bet, on the devotion to the space. And that space is currently as healthy as a Uber™ IPO. i.e., Better hope the hype remains.

To reiterate, there is nothing more going on in the movements of Bitcoin than what we’ve witnessed prior. And since you are now residing on the other side of that initial spike (and it here where the key lies) there is nothing that will happen in Bitcoin that can’t be replicated or even more beneficial for possible profits, both safer and more regulated, than if one were to go heavy into the world of Penny stocks. (this is not a recommendation it is a construct for comparison)

Yes, that’s true, and if that makes you uncomfortable, for you still believe, and are still invested, literally, in the Bitcoin Billionaire myth. Than you are playing in a space that you know far less about (with your money at risk) than you care to admit. Regardless of how “rich” Tom Lee thinks you’ll be, or how many “Invest in cryptos!” seminars costing $thousands you’ve attended.

After all, if there was so much “retirement riches” to be had…

Then why is James Altucher now pimping touting something completely different? (i.e. he moved from crypto to weed, now its some tech type of tech gadget. Who knows what’s next if that one doesn’t work out either. However, don’t worry, for the price of a few $thousand you too can make him rich learning.)

Then again, if Bitcoin does reach $20K again? Don’t wake me, for it may not be worth the effort. For I already know what the punchline is and seen it before.

And tragic comedy, in the end, isn’t really all that funny to begin with.

© 2019 Mark St.Cyr