I was reminded of this the other day via a friend in reference to one of my articles. It was made for me years ago by putting my words into animation. It still brings a laugh when I hear it which has now been years since, so I thought I’d put it up as to show it’s not like I haven’t been consistent over the years about my contempt for an industry that I myself occupy a glass home in.
There has been no other topic that causes more derision against me than when I call bullocks against the so-called “tech” or “IPO” scene. The issue that has been fascinating over the years is just how vacant said criticism has proven out to be as the facts produce themselves with ever more clearer results. Today’s latest example (and latest producer of calls such as “You just don’t get tech!”) is none other than Lyft™.
For those of you that bought into all the hype, or worse, found out your “financial adviser” bought you in as to make sure you had the right amount of “growth stocks” in your portfolio. Now may be the time to look away, and you have my condolences.
Over the course of the last 10 years I have made the case (as well as instructed) that there are dramatic differences between the concepts for motivation, business excellence, strategy, tactics and a whole lot more dispensed by myself and others.
But over those years there has been some change in my focus.
The reasoning behind this was simple, as I’ve explained ad nauseam during this period: Throughout the initial gyrations of what is now known as “The Great Financial Crisis” I found myself in what should have been the most wondrous time that any hard working, committed to deeds over words individual expected, should they had been able to grasp one of the most elusive “brass rings” of any era.
That “ring” was the ability to retire at age 45.
It has been during this decade that my writings and more have morphed from what was my usual output of business centric themes, to the comings and goings of the financial world. i.e., Wall Street, central banks et al.
This was out of sheer necessity, for as I have stated, again, ad nauseam: I had retired, thought life was about to blossom further – and the financial crisis unfolded exposing most, if not all so-called “experts” or “gurus” as not just “empty suits” but some exposed as complete and total frauds. (Bernie Madoff anyone?)
Finding comprehensive, relevant and truthful insight or advice during this period via my own due diligence showed it was basically nonexistent. (need I remind you of Jim Cramer’s infamous insights on CNBC™ as just one example?)
But that was just the world known as finance. When it came to business, motivation and more, the fundamental argument I made to the former revealed itself even more during this latter period with the resumption of what is known as “Get Rich via ____________!(fill in the blank)” motivation seminars. Or “Retire Rich Using This Newest Undiscovered Trick” some so-called “Silicon Valley guru” newsletter advice dispensed.
They have shown to be complete and utter disasters. Remember getting rich in real estate seminars like Vancouver and others? Or how about getting rich in cryptos? Just to name a few.
If you were one of those that “bought in?” You have my condolences, but it’s not like I didn’t warn anyone. As a matter of fact, I was, by all simple metrics, one of the only one’s to openly say so and have those thoughts published.
On a side note: Here’s what’s taking place in Vancouver real estate today since my warnings. To wit:
In the City of Vancouver, British Columbia, in March, sales of detached houses fell 14% from March 2018, to merely 117 houses, down 50% from March 2017 and down 74% from March 2016, to the lowest number of sales since 1985, as the market has frozen up. Buyers and sellers are too far apart, and both sides have lost interest in a meeting of the minds.
Here’s my warnings from that period, again, to wit:
So, let me make this statement right-off-the-bat: This isn’t a hit piece about either Tony, Suze, or The Expo. What I’m strictly relating my argument too is the phenom and psychology that reemerges with a vengeance during what is known as “the topping process.” aka “The late stages of a bubble mentality.”
This is the moment in time where generic, over simplified advice, that sounds so good (and too good) shouted too an adoring crowd – should be taken as the siren, and clarion call to those who are diligent in preserving their wealth to buckle up, buckle down, and prepare in earnest. For once this show is over? “Over” is going to be something many of those attending these types of seminars are going to pray for – as in “Please make it stop!”
I have argued that most, if not all, being spewed today, even when it came to those selling out arena sized venues, was nothing more than “happy talk.” And in today’s world following much of it could, or would, lead to disastrous results. I have been proven correct on these points over, and over, and over again during said period of years.
Yet, with the “markets” continuing to be held aloft via central banking interventionism, many still believe that “the road to riches” can still be found if they attend some multi-thousand $dollar seminar to either scream and yell in unison, or better yet, hug it out with whomever is sitting in the next seat. I believe the so-called (coughAltuchercough) “Silicon Valley V.C. investment guru” is on his third or fourth iteration (if not more) of “investment advice that can make millions!” since all the prior have since gone down the proverbial drain. e.g., cryptos, weed, again, just to name a few.
But don’t worry, I’m more than sure he’ll refund all those that aren’t satisfied with the results. After all, it’s not like he was charging thousands upon thousands of $dollars for said “advice,” right? Oh wait, right, sorry, but hey, I’m sure this time “it’s different,” right?
I know I’m painting with a broad brush here, but it is what it is. And I should know, for I myself can be classified as in said business. So it’s not as if I can’t see any glass as the saying goes.
But today is a different story. And these points must be made to clarify exactly where this site and my insights are going, and where everyone else is. The reason? There is great opportunity to be made for those willing to look at the reality of the situation and plan accordingly. While the exact opposite is true for those that still believe all the “happy talk.”
Today, this difference must be made between myself and others and allow for the proverbial chips to fall where they may, because if one doesn’t truly understand where we are in relationship to: monetary policies, central bank interventionism within the capital markets, how that effects the competitive nature of business dynamics and more? All the “happy talk” in the world is going to leave you positively miserable once the initial rush of the moment wears off. Or, making matters worse – to then receive the credit card bill bearing that seminar charge.
It’s been a remarkable 10 years since the initial post made here. Not only has it been well over a decade since my retirement, but I have grasped more “brass rings” during this period in genres that even those per se in the world of professional writing themselves may never accomplish. i.e., I have made headlines across the globe concerning business and finance, on the largest media sites barring none. And I have been, once again, proven more correct on my arguments than most of the so-called “smart crowd” paraded across that very mainstream business/financial media. Again: bar none.
The reason why I’m including the above is to demonstrate I’m far from some one-trick-pony like so many others are. Or said differently: I’m not someone that just read someone’s book and has now written a book so you can now buy their thoughts on what they read.
Yes, I’m sorry to say, that about sums up most. Need I remind you of the plethora of 26 year-old’s out there now selling “life coaching skills?” But I digress.
As both this site, along with my focus, now changes. I felt it was necessary to begin laying the ground of what this site stands for – and – what it does not.
During this transformation period as the MYTR Broadcast is revamping and steering its priorities back more inline to focus away from the financial markets and back toward business pragmatics. I’ve been having conversations with friends and collegues on how best to try and convey, or to get this point across in a rather distinct fashion where ambiguity would be less of a concern, such as branding and other subjects.
One of my friends suggested “Maybe you can do something using a music reference because sometimes music conveys a stronger message far more than just its words.” I dismissed this out of hand with the remark of ” What, you want me to write and produce a song?! Are you f’n kidding me?!!” As always we all laughed and it fell by the wayside. And then…
During my usual run I was listening to music when a song came on which I have been listening to quite a bit (for I purchased the album a while back) when suddenly it hit me and thought “Imagine if I did that, but how?” And then on Friday I saw precisely the set up for that “how” on Zero Hedge™ and it hit me as “That’s how!” So here it is…
For those that want to continue to listen and believe all the “happy talk” to explain why the “markets” are up, how “getting rich” is just one credit card purchase away, or how you too can be a “real estate/financial guru” if you can just get together with enough people in a single arena and chant and hug each other. This video is not only for you, but pretty much sums up how you’re going on about life. Just click on image to hear and play on YouTube™. To wit:
And now, below, is what people like myself, and if I dare to say: those of us here that are busy doing the real work that actually brings those dreams into reality, think when we watch and listen to said “believers” of above and what is being proselytized today. To wit:
(Warning: explicit language, but then again, if you’ve been to one of the aforementioned seminars, dropping f-bombs from the stage still seems to be in fashion. Again, just click on image to hear and play on YouTube and might I suggest turning the volume up.
And there you have it. You’re either in one camp or the other, but at least the above shows the clearest example of the differences.
Personally, I feel that I’m in very good company, and that would be in the company of you dear reader, and I look forward to us eating everyone else’s lunch in the coming future – as they search blindly for any remaining crumbs.
Let’s call this the “plant the flag” moment for this site for the next 10 years. For as I started this all once before, now 10 years ago, I then used a music reference to kick things off, and look how far we’ve come since. That reference was from one of my favorite songs and band Pink Floyd, Wish You Were Here, from the same titled album, again, to wit:
“Did they get you to trade your heroes for ghosts?…. Hot ashes for Trees?…Hot air for a cool breeze?
Cold comfort for change?….and did you exchange…a walk on part in the war…..for a lead role in a cage?”
As is the usual, when the “markets” are turbulent, I hear from a myriad of people I usually don’t hear from asking for my opinion on the current happenings. When the “markets” are rocketing higher, or seem to be in some form of rocket-ride status, I know the opposite will be true, as in: when my phone doesn’t ring – I know it’s them. But that’s life and I both get it, and I’m not offended. It’s the way of the world.
However, this makes the perfect time to put what I like to say: a few things in context. And with that I submit to you the following as a counter balance of all the so-called “insights” I’ve been watching across the mainstream business/financial outlets. To wit:
The above is of the S&P 500™ futures as I write this represented by daily bars/candles. As you can clearly see, you are now currently back to where the “markets” started some 14 months ago in January of 2018 when the now Chair, Mr Powell first took the helm of the Fed and implemented his former boss, Ms. Yellen’s schedule for balance sheet normalization and promise for raising interest rates.On the above I have annotated the peaks and falls and the Fed’s subsequent responses to each. To be clear: every peak and trough extreme was reversed via some Fed induced cause. i.e., interest rate hike, balance sheet tightening, or promise, or insinuation to pause, slow, rectify, etc., etc., etc. Although the summation is generalized (i.e., in using a 14 month chart) I had written at those times, in detail, the cause and correlation, again, in real time during said periods. So it’s not like I’m just trying to make an invalid assumption of timing. (As always, they’re in the archives for those wishing to validate.)
What the above highlights are two very ominous implications. The first: once again the “markets” have proven that without central bank interventionism – they can’t function as intended. The second: the Fed had to completely capitulate to the point of sacrificing its credibility to the former – and – the “markets” now rest precisely where they began and the Fed. can’t do anything about it unless they both cut interest rates and/or implement another QE program.
This is not an insignificant dilemma by any stretch of the imagination, that is, unless you’re one of those touting “Everything is great, just buy, buy, buy!” snake-oil sellers across the financial media landscape. But I digress.
The other question is this: So now what?
Here’s another chart of the same only a bit longer in time duration that covers when the former Chair, Ms. Yellen tried to begin the process of interest rate hikes only. For those that don’t remember? The “markets” then experienced near-death moves that were supposedly “never going to happen” when listening to both the Fed, as well as most across the mainstream business/financial media. Hint: remember when the “Bullard Bottom” was born? Again, to wit:
To reiterate, the only reason why the “markets” ramped to where we are currently (my conjecture, of course) was due to the tax cut proposals and subsequent passing. So now here they are at the very top, once again, and the Fed and other central banks have already capitulated on everything they called for prior.
Think about this very carefully for the implications are absolutely monumental should something suddenly go awry.
“What could go awry?” you ask? Great question here’s just a few:
Jobs report portends something ominous.
Trade deal is seen as unconvincing.
Earnings report season comes in far weaker than anticipated.
Brexit ends badly.
I could go on, but any one of the above is enough by its own. And all are 50/50 chances at best. Again: at best!
Then there are more of what are known as “The technicals” when looking across these “markets.” As I’ve stated prior: the uncanny resemblance of so many similar patterns developing across so many asset classes itself portends that there’s true danger lurking.
Since I made and have since been chronicling this argument I used the S&P 500 futures as the current avatar for them. As I type this today nothing has changed from my first observation except for how much time has passed. But the time passing is not invaliding my first interpretation, but rather – is enforcing it.
Here is that chart updated to this morning before the cash market opens. To wit:
I was questioned this morning on my thoughts for the rise in the “markets” since December. Here’s my response. To wit:
If you dare print any currency note, then try to buy an asset, you would be immediately arrested and thrown in jail for a little thing called counterfeiting. When a central bank does the same they are rewarded with both keeping said assets and publicly defended with accolades for doing so under the guise of “prudent monetary policy.
Me, circa 2010
“Now everyone had better hope it doesn’t fail: again. For if it does, the central banks (e.g., ECB, Federal Reserve et al.) have now publicly declared that it is they, via their now abrupt reversal of policies, which now controls the capital markets.
That’s all you need to know and anyone pretending it’s something different is a moron.”
Usually there’s a 24hr embargo on responses before one can re-use them, but I don’t agree to any unless I’m assured they will be used before hand in the first place. Other wise, why ask me? However, let’s say I’m pretty confident none will use it, so here it is.
(Please note this is not an April Fool’s Day joke)
The MYTR Broadcast is going on a two week hiatus as of today. The reason for it is we are updating both the website and a few other sections as we get ready for the new model. The timing for such in conjunction with other matters made it ideal so Mark decided to do it now.
If for some reason the website appears to be down or some other glitch during this period please just check back later-on and/or refresh your browser.
Please note that Mark will be posting other material or updates during this time, only the daily broadcast is effected.
Thanks to all and we look forward to rejoining you on April 15.