Oh, The Irony!

As I type this the S&P 500™ made its mark for hitting the highest level it’s ever been in the history of mankind. And it may not be the last.

For those that may be confused because they’ve seen reports of it already doing it. That was in regards to its closing level. This is the highest price ever bought or sold – ever. Repeat: Ever!

So now I can hear you saying, “So what’s so ironic about that? Isn’t that a good thing?”

Well it is, unless you’re Jerome Powell along with his cohorts comprising the Federal Reserve’s FOMC Board of Governors. For they have a conclave scheduled for this Tues. – Wed. to evaluate, then set monetary policy.

Remember what they did last meeting? Hint: rhymes with pause and halt in regards to rate hikes and balance sheet run off.

“Why is that important, can’t they just change their minds and restart or guide differently?” you ask. Here’s another hint: not without unleashing monetary chaos, emphasis on: chaos.

The Fed did such an about face at the last meeting just one month ago that they absolutely destroyed any remaining credibility they had for their reading of the economy, what their policies have in relation to it, and what the capital markets have become since their interventionism nearly a decade ago. Need I remind you of the term “autopilot?”

It was not until December’s sudden need for the Treasury Secretary to interrupt his vacation and make a public announcement that he had called the largest U.S. banks and verified to his approval that they were “adequately funded.” Since then Mr. Powell and anyone else at the Fed that could get to a keyboard, camera or microphone has been making the argument for why everything they thought was wrong and now needed to halt, pause and maybe even reverse course. i.e., reconstitute some QE type initiative.

Since then we have gone from, “The depth of despair in December.” To now, “Everything is so freakin’ awesome its coming up roses for May!”

Regardless of how you think the government numbers are calculated (they’re government numbers, need I say more?) you have:

  • GDP printing over 3% = Awesome!
  • Unemployment at record lows = Freakin’ Awesome!
  • Retail spending printing blow out numbers = I can’t control my feet Awesome!
  • And with that the Fed can’t move, as well as said (or signaled however you want to state it, but they’re basically the same thing) it won’t till after 2020. I mean: Awwwwwe-Sssssome!

Repeat: after 2020. Awesome! – Awesome!! – Awesome!!! Awesomeness so plentiful they can’t control their Buy and Hold sentiments for awesome!

The Fed, as I’ve said ad nauseam, has painted itself into a corner and the bucket they used to do the painting is itself, empty. Meaning – they are damned if they do, damned if they don’t and can’t paint over their mistakes as they try and flee said corner, and will be blamed (and damned) for the results either way. Period, full stop.

Again, to reiterate: the exact conditions that should enable, as well as encourage the Fed to normalize – are the exact set of circumstances that won’t allow them. For if they do?

Even if they hint or change the smallest item or verbiage we are back to December lows faster than you can say, “A change in forward guidance.”

And the other truly ironic part is not only do they know it, but so does everyone else, including the one person the Fed despises the most. And that is where the real irony lays.

© 2019 Mark St.Cyr

Change Is In The Air

For the last several years I have written on Sunday’s specifically concerning what is known as “the markets.” i.e., Wall Street et al.

That is now changing.

Since the early days of my blog concerning Wall Street and the entirety of the capital markets I have commented, argued, explained and more about its precarious machinations, much to the scream and howls of those affiliated within it. i.e., next in rotation fund managers, Ph.D Ivy Towered economists, think tank “smart crowd,” Silicon Valley aficionados and more, much more.

In the end, more often than not, as said commentary was either directly carried or referenced in media venues across the globe, on some of the most prominent spaces – my assumptions, views, explanations and more have been the ones proven correct more often than not.

You may agree or not, for that’s up to you, as it should be. However, if one looks at these “markets” at today’s current levels and wants to say, “New highs proves you too have been wrong all along!” There’s nothing more I can say to you except: Good luck, and there’s no real reason for you to read or listen to anything I have to say further. Hope it all works out for you.

Please understand, I truly mean that. Yet, at the same time, if that is your viewpoint all I’ll conclude with is: you may not be as “informed” as you think you are.

The reason is simple: that’s what everyone thought in 2007/08. The only difference this time is you now know (or at least you should) that without the Federal Reserve and other central banks actively perverting said “markets” with more and more varying forms of intervention, whether it be halting prior policies (normalization) or re-instituting proven failures (e.g., QE) – it all falls apart. Just like I and a very few others said it would.

The latest provable metric for those that question said assertion? December 2018 to current day.

If that doesn’t convince you, sorry, but nothing will. And personally I’m done trying. Again, best of luck to you that don’t think so.

To reiterate, I mean that sincerely. It’s not said sarcastically, but it needs to be said so that I can clear the air and not look back as the site propels into its next phase. And “next phase” is now here.

Will I keep commenting on the “markets?” Absolutely, just from a different perspective as to help others understand the how-and-what they’re competing with in relationship to it is where I’m going.

This is something I’ve been wrestling with for quite some time, but just felt I possibly needed a bit more gravitas for arguing certain issues from a credibility sake. Again, for my own head, not any other.

Over the last few years and months that “gravitas,” as they say, has been filled to my own personal levels of acceptance.

In other words I don’t give a horse’s pa-toot about whether or not someone thinks “Well who are you, or what gives you the credibility to make such comments?” For my answer is much like I stated earlier: If you don’t know who I am? I don’t care, you can research me all you want on the web, or just look in my archives and more. It’s all there. But as far as me trying to convince? Again, don’t care.

But let me just point out for those not convinced one last time…

I’ve been quoted or referenced in the largest business/financial and mainstream sites across the globe, bar none, for almost a decade. I’ve had my articles either run right alongside, or on the same page as some of the biggest names in finance such as Taleb, Stockman, Roach and more. In some instances when a story involved the likes of Warren Buffett and his thoughts and/or quotes on a company or market, the opposing viewpoint for contrast in said article has been me. (i.e., MarketWatch™)

Again, of all the people paraded across the media, along with the endless supply of next-in-rotation fund-managers and more available to the mainstream business/financial media they have to choose from – the viewpoint chose to argue against the biggest name in finance during one of the largest news story of the time (i.e., Apple™) was yours truly. And that’s just one, there’s been so many I myself have lost count.

When it comes to the world of finance, markets and more I have just as much, if not more, published work where I’ve called for caution in real-time explaining my reasoning and pointing to possible causation events than any other of what many might call the “nouveau motivational finance sect.” (See Reuters™ for further clues.)

Their “calls to riches” have morphed into my calls and reasoning for caution resulting in $Billions, upon $Billions, upon $Billions of market losses, not including the personal losses of money acquired of those following said advice.

IPO’s, Toronto real estate, cryptos, weed stocks, ________(fill in he blank) anyone?

Oh yes, and if you want to include entire markets such as the debacle that happened at the end of 2018? Those losses are in the $Trillions. But whose counting, right? For it’s all returned, so why worry, right? Right?

When I started (i.e., 2009) I knew I had issues that might hold me back, especially since I’m not a “Wall Street” guy, never worked as one, never was a writer of any sorts, and could barely spell cat without using spell checker. And there I’ve been, at the top of the heap, while also never doing anything the so-called “social media guru’s” will tell you you need to. i.e., I did it all without using it (yes, that’s right, no social media, think about that and let that seep in for those chasing “likes.”)

And in some ways just to add a bit of context. I’ve also been more correct on my calling for the demise of it than many self proclaimed “gurus.” After-all, when was the last time you heard of someone “crushing it” outside of Silicon Valley proper? I rest my case.

“So what’s this all about and why this post to begin with?” I can hear you asking through my monitors. Good question, and it is this…

As of this day going forward this site begins its journey once again to provide motivational material, insight and more into the complex structure known as business. And I believe there is no one else with the ability, as well as published background, and now, yes: archived gravitas to make such calls of/for insight at the highest levels of finance, markets and more – than myself. Again, bar none.

As of today this site goes back to its original purpose in helping those who want to excel at the highest levels of both their personal life, as well as business, through pragmatic insights they can both put into immediate action, as well as not feel or wonder if they’re consuming large quantities of snake oil.

To those that are ready this is my pledge to you and it begins May 1st with the relaunch of the MYTR Broadcast™.

More will be said then and as we go along, but make no mistake, I/we are about to undertake a very wild ride which I believe just may be the most fulfilling for true business wealth and personal security to come along in a generation.

That’s not hyperbole, that’s a true belief. But you’ll have to be ready to make the hard and true choices needed to run this course, for it won’t be for those of the “lightly committed” or “get rich quick” crowd. For that crap – and it is all crap – doesn’t work and never lasts.

If you think I’m wrong, I’m sure there’s a crypto insider, naked option selling, investing in real estate seminar, or weed stock millionaire making course that’ll just love to take your credit card number. The web is littered with them and some are being offered by the “biggest names!” Have a ball and best of luck too you is all say. And I truly mean it.

For those that have read this far, understand my implications, and are ready for the next chapter?

See You Wednesday.

© 2019 Mark St.Cyr

Thinking Like A Machine

I get asked many times to clarify what I truly mean when I talk about the “markets” and use references such as: If the market is made of bots than you have to think like a bot to gain clues.

As I was browsing a few different things this morning I was viewing the image below and thought it would make a great visual aid for those that may be interested. To wit:

(Chart Source)

The above is a chart of the S&P 500™ futures as of this writing represented via 15 minute bar/candle intervals. Why the above is interesting is for the following observations…

What those lines, squares and colored sections represent are different Fibonacci equations expressed using the price data contained within said chart. i.e., the lines aren’t drawn arbitrarily – they are drawn (calculated) via mathematical equations beginning and ending by using the only two arbitrary numbers allowed which is the starting and ending point I placed, which is represented by “0” for the beginning and ending point represented by “1” All the rest is filled in or drawn using math, not by my hand.

What caught my attention was when I was using different technicals and more, I just happened to use the above which I haven’t in quite some time. The reason for it was, I used to use it many moons ago when I was looking at different markets that appeared lifeless and without volume to see if it could give me insight to what the machines or bots might be paying attention to since it appeared that was all that was trading at that given time.

Remember: Algorithms, bots, machines what ever you want to call them use one thing and one thing only to trade – math. So if machines appear to be the only thing buying or selling to each other? I believe you get the point.

So with that said what appears interesting is that the trend over this month appears to be following and coinciding almost far too neatly many lines, areas, drops, spikes and more far too numerous to be just coincidence. Could it all be? Absolutely, for remember – There Is No Holy Grail. Period.

What caught my eye even more is exactly where this all is in this progression which is within the furthest and top area that’s following both a 0-line which is a perfect trend line along with being in what may be called “a termination of trend area.”

Does it mean it will? No one knows. However, if you want to try and think what the machines may be calculating then you have to sometimes try and look for clues that may allow you to see what the machines are using for reference. This is what I mean by “thinking like a machine.”

Again, just to point out, volume for this entire rally since the December lows has been by any normal measures – pathetic. That insinuates that the only ones in here buying are the bots on autopilot.

So if you want to anticipate what the machines may be doing, then you’re going to have to lose all emotions and begin thinking like one to garner any clues.

And as always, we shall see. Why?

Because Apple™ reports right at the very end of the highest right hand corner signified by “1/1”

Maybe the bots have a sense of humor after all, right?

© 2019 Mark St.Cyr

Existential Autopilot?

This is what happens as I’ve stated over, and over, and over again when “it’s different this time” is just that. To wit:

(Chart Source)

The above chart is Tesla as of this writing. All I’ll say is this: The conclusion to what appears to be happening looks like a possible existential event on “autopilot.” And it’s only about $6.00 lower.

As always, we shall see.

©2019 Mark St.Cyr

Proud Member of The Only Club That Mattered

When it comes to the world of power, money and finance colloquially known as “Wall Street,” I’m often reminded of a line from the late, great comedian George Carlin “It’s a big club – and you’re not in it!” It’s been and remains that way to this day.

However, with that said, that “club” has morphed from its original grand vision for being the greatest purveyor for the formation of capital to do great things into a charlatan’s palace for huckster enabled rackets so perverse, a den of thieves feels like a safe house in comparison. Some even have their own prime-time shows complete with bells, buzzers and whistles, literally.

This circus show known as the “markets” and their so-called “smart crowd” paraded across the mainstream business/financial media make true circuses like P.T. Barnum’s and Ringling Bros. look like rookie affairs. And old terms like “sucker born everyday” are now simply called an “IPO,” but the implications are the same.

As of this writing it is now proven beyond any shadow of any doubt that what I and others, from within the circle I’m proud to be an alumnus, have said all along is incontrovertible: Today’s capital markets are nothing more than a Potemkin Village creation of central banks.

This is no longer debatable – it is now proven fact. Period, full stop.

And here is your proof. To wit:

(Chart Source)

The above is a daily chart of the S&P 500™ futures as of this writing. The time frame begins when the former Chair, Ms. Yellen passed the bag baton to the current bag holder Chair, Jerome Powell as to implement her previously defined course for normalization back in 2017. Guess what? It hasn’t worked out at all as was described, has it?

Remember the term used back then to describe the process? Hint: rhymes with “like watching paint dry.”

Over the course of many years the mainstream business/financial media has sullied and poo-poohed nearly everything people like myself and other alumni have argued during this period. We’ve been called “the tin foil hat conspiracy crowd” and worse. Others would not say our names and would refer to us as “The doom crew” and other pejoratives they thought were clever. (coughBloombergcough)

Yet, when they did want to name this group publicly, they turned to a clearly fraudulent research paper and firm, and in a style that would make Joseph McCarthy hesitate, they all silently cheered as their mainstream brethren smeared the likes of myself and others across the entire press in repugnant fashion.

Need I remind one that the term “Fake News” was born from this despicable act portrayed against myself and others of this group. This term has been turned upside down and now describes much of the media only via the dogged arguments and consistent push back of the President.

To be clear: I don’t care what side of the political aisle you stand and whether or not you like or hate the current President, for that’s not what I’m talking to.

What I want to direct your attention to is something Breitbart’s John Nolte just referenced. This is from a tweet the other day by Karen Tumulty of the Washington Post™. To wit:

So many things that were called “fake news” by the president and his team turned out to be true. The Mueller Report is an exoneration … of the mainstream media.

Source: @ktumulty

Contrast the above with what the WP did to myself and others when it comes to “Russia.” From his (the above mentioned John Nolte’s) list of: Top 51 Fake News ‘Bombshells’ The Media Spread About Russiagate. Here’s #31, again, to wit:

31. The Washington Post

“More than 200 websites” were “routine peddlers of Russian propaganda during the election season.”

And for those of you that think I’m just trying to insert myself into what has become the biggest media disgrace of our lifetimes. Once again, to wit:

ZH Frontpage circa Nov. 25, 2016

The above is when this putrid display of journalism via the WP and others was launched. As you can see, that article just below the smear reporting is by yours truly. In the “old days” that would be noted as “front page, above the fold” news i.e., prominent placement. So it’s not like I was on the back cover in the spaces where they would also list ads for “X-Ray glasses just $2.00!”

Again, to be clear: This isn’t about me, its about all of us that woke up one morning to find we seemed to have moved from the “those that shall not be named” category in the business/financial media – to those that will now be McCathy-ized via the mainstream press. It truly was a stunning moment for all of us.

All I can say in retrospect (and pretty much said when they did) is that my deepest gratitude goes out to both Glenn Greenwald, Ben Norton of The Intercept™ who came out swinging with the gravitas and heft to call bullsh#t where bullsh#t was and blew this entire sh#t-show into the gutter where it belonged.

Trust me, you don’t understand the true meaning and feeling associated with the term “McCartyism” until you find yourself in the middle of it for no other reason than the media’s decision to swing a broad brush of dung. For my articles (and others in the “club”) had graced the sites of more than half of the top 10 websites listed.

Again, this was the genesis for the term “fake news.” And to the President’s credit (along with my gratitude) he turned that term back-around and now it is the media itself that are now branded with said moniker, where it belongs. I can’t speak for others, but I know, no matter what they may feel about the current President, one thing is without question: it was he that put the term “Fake News” where it belongs, and for that I believe many are grateful, regardless of what political side or thoughts one may hold.

But this isn’t about the political. But it is about “the club.” And that “club” is comprised of many different writers and more that have been espousing true insightful reasoning, and articulating just what the public markets have become, and why: to the detriment of the so-called “smart crowd” everywhere.

We have argued that without central bank interventionism – there are no markets. Again, period, full stop, do not pass go, or collect $200.

What we have today has been further crystallized via the moniker made over, and over, and over again by one David Stockman (another alumnus of said club) “It’s a Casino!”

So now here we are, the “markets” are now making “new never before seen in the history of mankind new highs” – and the earnings reports so far have been pathetic. Here’s just a further sampling of metrics for you to consider as we elevate even higher:

The volume within said “markets” has been abysmal, we have no resolution on trade, economic metrics continue to be even more lackluster than earlier predictions, the Federal Reserve has jettisoned all credibility to save the “markets” from themselves, central banks across the globe have either restarted or are about to interject their own QE reboots and much, much more – and the so-called parade of circus clowns across the mainstream business/financial media are incessantly touting we’re here because of “good earnings, valuation metrics.” Just don’t mention “LYFT™”

I could go on and on, but you get the point: It’s all nothing more than a sophisticated version (although that’s being kind) of some game show with hosts and guests trying to appear as if they know what they’re talking about, rather than the blatant display of “talking their book” and cheerleaders of their political bias.

Need I remind you of one prominent host telling his audience the reason why one needed to listen to their guest’s viewpoint regarding finance was “because they were a democrat?” (coughBloombergcough)

Sorry, something keeps getting stuck in my keyboard.

I had no intention of writing this piece, for in many ways over the years I’ve documented my thoughts and more which are all in the archives.

However, when I saw that tweet by Ms, Tumulty of the WP I became infuriated. The reason was simple. Hint: She’s at the epicenter of where one the biggest smear campaigns originated – and she’s publicly declaring she’s proud of it. Think about that for a moment and let that sink in.

Maybe it’s not that relevant to you, but to someone like myself (and again I would imagine all the other alumni I share a space with) it’s despicable.

I’m drawn to another quote from the McCarthy era that I find fitting, “Do you have no shame?” I’ll leave that interpretation up to you to decide. I’ll assume you know mine.

Although I have no idea who the people over at ZeroHedge™ are. I do know that I’ve been fortunate enough that they found my material worth while to their readership and posted some 200 of my articles to their front page near daily for years. During that time people like myself and others have been called “tin foil clad conspiracy nut jobs,” “doom crew,” “broken clocks” and more.

However, we have made the arguments in spite of them and have been proven to be the ones who were correct all along.

The current state of the “markets” de facto proves it. Trying to argue otherwise is a lesson in the world of the dimwitted.

I personally no longer will have anything to do with this crowd (i.e., the so-called “smart crowd” of the mainstream business/financial media) other than stand from afar and laugh.

And laugh I will, and am.

I have argued over the years that “I have been wrong for all the right reasons” when trying to reconcile what I (and others) have been explaining against the backdrop of what appeared to be a relentless upward trajectory of said markets.

We said without central bank intervention – it all falls apart. If the central banks intervene? It will keep working till one day it won’t. But that’s what I’ve also described as “The Dirty Harry market” i.e., “Do you feel lucky?”

All I’ll say now again is, repeat my aforementioned question, for that’s all that is standing between you, your money, retirement and more.

Yes, that’s it. I’m no financial advisor or rocket scientist, but it doesn’t take either to understand what these “markets” have now become. That is – if you are willing to actually look, that’s the key.

At the beginning of 2018 Lady Luck seemed to be smiling bright – then the Fed began normalizing – then – it would seem luck was more casino based than from somewhere on high.

If not for a call from Cabo and a complete reversal of all prior statements, assessments and a full blow pulling-of-the-plug on any and all normalization processes by the Fed, these “markets” may have made 2007/08 look like a cake-walk in comparison. Here it is in picture form for those that need remembering. To wit:

(Image Source)

So again I ask: Do you feel lucky?

Again what you take away from the above is clearly up to you. And for those still believing in unicorns, rainbows, good earnings, fair valuations and more may I suggest you continue to watch, listen or read the mainstream business/financial media. For they’re continuing to lose viewers almost as fast as Rachel Maddow and others of her ilk and need your support before the advertisers that only pay per “thousand viewer” metrics look for greener pastures.

It may not be long before the “buzzer king” has to find another network’s credibility to destroy. But then again, everyone loves a circus, right? Right? I wonder if CNBC™ ever pondered that those C’s could someday represent circus and clowns? But I digress.

So to finish what many may call a form of rant (and I would get that) what this is all about is the changes that have been going on behind the scenes here on my own site and more. For when it comes to the world of capital markets and more I’ve pretty much said all I need to say, and in the end, have been proven to be more correct that nearly all off the so-called “smart crowd” across the media. Bar none.

Again, the de facto proof of all of this is the current situation made manifest in the “markets.” To those that want to think or argue otherwise? Personally I’m done, and will only say: Have yourself a ball thinking otherwise. I have no gumption to argue or try to convince you otherwise.

In other words: If you don’t get it by now? There’s nothing more to be said, and I’m personally done saying it myself.

Regardless of your thoughts when it comes to the website known as ZeroHedge, one thing has been proven without exceptions: those of us that have been fortunate enough to be included into its club have been shown that it was we that were on the right side of critical thinking – not the other way around as has been professed by its detractors.

I’ve pretty much been of the mindset throughout my life as expressed by Groucho Marx years ago (paraphrasing): “I don’t want to belong to any club that’ll have me as a member.”

However, with that said, when it comes to being able to call myself an alumni member, along with the others that have all argued and laid out our thoughts in earnest on ZeroHedge – and let the chips fall where they may – I can’t help but feel proud.

For in the end, regardless of how anyone wants to try and spin it (and try they are) that little “club” are the ones that have been vindicated and proven correct in the end. But the way it was proven is in the sweetest and best of all ironies. To wit:

It was proved via the “markets” making: New All Time Highs! – not doom and gloom.

Nothing more needs to be said. End of story.

© 2019 Mark St.Cyr

Two Very Different Notes

The first: To all those that celebrate or observe this day, from my family to yours Happy Easter!

The second: I have decided that the MYTR Broadcast™ will remain on hiatus for the remainder of April and will return on Wednesday, May 1st.

The reasons for this are too long and too many to discuss currently, but to try and make a long story short, we’ve been having issues with parts on both the back-end, as well as front, that have caused me true consternation.

Those of you that have been with me for some time know all too well, that if I can not get something in alignment of where I believe it should be, I will delay until, or at worst – jettison the entire en devour until it meets the idea or direction I envisioned for beginning it in the first place.

I have been at this form of a crossroads for weeks and needed to make a decision. I have since made it, however, such a decision required a bit more time to implement correctly, hence the delay – again.

Sorry, but it’s for very valid reasons that I’ve been wrestling with.

To reiterate, the decision made more sense and proved more valid the more I rumbled with it. I understand that many of you might be thinking”But you always say you shouldn’t wait till perfect, so why are you waiting?!”

I get it, but you also need to remember that all circumstances or issues should not (and some can not) be treated with the same mantra or metaphor just because it can seem to apply. However, you won’t hear that at most “motivational” seminars which is why so many get into so much trouble later down the road. But I digress.

There are times when you need to launch or ship when you’re not 100% ready. I’ve demonstrated that over, and over, and over again right here, now a decade hence. Remember, I’m quoted for the saying: If all you do is wait for perfection before doing, then perfectly waiting is all you’ll ever do.

This is not something regarding that. This is more existential in nature, not just a tweaking-of-things type exercise. It will all become apparent when the show returns.

Until that time I will still be posting articles to the site as always.

In addition you may/will observe certain items such as: widgets, menus, click-on buttons and more disappear and/or reappear as we continue revamping different items during this period.

May 1st is the now drop-dead relaunch date. Taking the additional week during this period allowed for other things to be changed with far greater ease, as well as further gremlin removal.

So with that said: It’s now Wednesday, May 1st for the MYTR Broadcast relaunch.

See you then.

© 2019 Mark St.Cyr

So Where Are We Now? Update

Since the “markets” are still levitating beginning with a relentless gap up every day I thought it only fitting to make my thoughts clear on what I thought about all this for those that want to know. The first is: “Have you changed your mind about the health of the “markets” during this incesant rally?”

My answer: Once again, no. At least not yet and here’s why…

Below is the markets as of this writing using an updated chart of the S&P500™ that I’ve been referencing. To wit:

(Chart Source)

As you can see the “market” has poked its head out of that box I’ve been alluding to for weeks. However, from a technical view both in terms of volume and more, this “market” appears to be running on less than fumes. And that is where the catalyst for any real potential backsliding lies. i.e., one wrong data point – and things can go awry quickly. Emphasis on very.

Unless the “markets” vault higher soon and by soon I mean in days, not weeks, for whatever the reason (great earnings report, real trade deal news, etc., etc.) the potential to peter-out here and get back within that highlighted area is where the focus should be. For if it does, then goes back through approaching that blue line? Again, that’s where things have the potential for creating havoc.

On the flip side: should the “markets” vault higher and get back within those lines I highlighted above? The potential for a melt up for “New, never before seen in human history highs” and I would then call my original observation void. But until that happens, my original calls for caution are still as valid as I’ve stated, if not even more so.

As always, we shall see.

© 2019 Mark St.Cyr

2019: Ayn Rand’s Last Laugh

Over the course of the last decade to say things “have changed” would be an understatement. In some respects when it comes to civility in public discourse, and just as important, business ethics, one would have to agree that both have been spiraling down the drain.

The reason? Central banks interventionism into the capital markets. For without it: socialistic thoughts and ideas die at the alter of affordability, literally.

I know, I can hear you through my monitors yelling “No it’s politics!” However, I would need to rebut that assertion with, “It’s the central banks that are allowing for the politics of the day, not the other way around.” Case in point:

Last week chairwoman Maxine Waters of the House Financial Services Committee began lambasting bank CEO’s appearing before her panel on what they were going to do about the current student loan crisis. The problem?

Banks haven’t been administering student loans since the government took over the entire student lending program in 2010. In other words, student loan debt has become the national plague it is because the government socialized it nearly a decade ago. You know what else started back about this time? Hint: rhymes with quantitative easing. (QE)

I both listen and talk regularly with many of today’s “indebted student class.” To be clear: I feel for them, I get it. However, with that said, what I do not allow is their “The government needs to ________ (fill in the blank)” responses.

All I have to do to make most heads explode when they begin talking about fairness, opportunities, business and other things is politely state, “You understand that your problem really is that you’re already living part of the socialist dream and you don’t like it. And now you’re arguing that in order to make it all “better” you want even more of what you already can’t stand. You do know that, right?” (This is the moment I wish I donned a poncho before hand.)

When I begin hearing things like “Then the government needs to forgive student debt!” I just respond: So what about not only your healthcare, but everyone else that you say should have it for free? You know it’s your student loan profits that are a designated source for paying for all this socialized healthcare (aka Obamacare). So if you don’t pay your loans, then it is you that is responsible for not allowing the funds needed. That’s why it was taken over in the first place, but you knew that, right? Right?”

But they don’t. And it’s fair to say, neither do those that are in charge of it all, either. It’s a perpetual game of “Who can show they know nothing quicker than the other?” So far, the most “educated” seem to be winning. AOC anyone?

But this isn’t some left vs right argument, for there’s just as much “brilliance” on both sides of the aisle. Need I remind anyone with a stock market nearing “never before seen in human history highs” that none other than Mr. Kudlow, Director of the National Economic Council, is calling for an immediate rate cut?

Which brings us right back to where it all began: The central bank perversion of everything.

It is now fact, not conjecture, that if the central banks don’t allow for the charade to continue – everything collapses. And I do mean: everything.

We heard year after year that the policy of central banks intervening was always just some form of “emergency measure.” A one time type thing, temporary, etc., etc., etc. We now know (via their own recent actions) that without them – it all falls apart.

As I have stated ad nauseam: There has never been a time in recent history that so much power has been allocated to a handful of unelected individuals since the time of kings. Think about that very carefully, for it is not hyperbole.

The capital markets, once considered the greatest achievement for capital formation, has been turned into a parasitical, front running, headline reading, algorithmic cesspool of black box operations for skimming and defrauding. Can you say IPO’s? But that’s just one of the “table games” in the now desolate space known as “The casino.” aka Wall Street et al.

Now, everybody wants in on “the action.” So now say hello to a little known theory called MMT (modern monetary theory.)

What is that you say? Well, let me make this as easy to understand as possible: QE for the masses. That’s really about it.

You’ll hear all kinds of “educated” dissertations made by some academic scholar or some Ph.D’ whatever. But what it basically comes down to is following Mr Ben Bernanke’s philosophy of “the courage to print, then print some more.” For this is where it began to be defended as “prudent monetary policy.”

Now it’s shown itself for the sham that it always was, just no one now dares admit it, hence the game of propping everything up ends and the small business pop-ups for pitch forks and torches begin to emerge in earnest.

Speaking of “pitch forks and torches.” Do you think this is just me arguing another exercise in hyperbole? I would say: think again.

Others are so nervous about the current situation that they have already began floating trial balloons for the possibility of the Fed buying equities (i.e. stocks) directly.

Think about that for a moment. If you think the competitive landscape via the public markets is already perverted, just imagine when (and I firmly believe it is closer to when, not if) the Fed will publicly declare the winners and losers further immortalizing already zombie-fied businesses.

Former Chair Janet (never another crisis in her lifetime) Yellen is already out stating how the Fed now needs to do more, otherwise… Hint: cross out “never” in prior sentence.

The current Fed has already jettisoned any and all credibility with its complete and utter reversal on policy. i.e., Policy hawks have been reduced to unison cooing market doves.

All their prior projections and summations for reading and understanding the economy have been reduced (at least to those with any critical thinking skills) to outright joking material far funnier than most late-night standup routines. Albeit that’s already a low bar. But I digress.

Add to this we now have the likes of former Wall Street tycoons like Ray Dalio coming out and trying to buy “pitch-fork and torch insurance” for $100 Million while staging events across the media to perform in-person mea culpas against capitalism. All I have to say about that is this:

Dear Mr. Dalio, you weren’t engaging in capitalism, you were making yourself rich via suckling at the teat of crony capitalism made possible via the Fed and its QE programs by employing a greater, far more efficient parasitical vehicle to engorge yourself ever the more. And may I give you a heads up: $100 Million and mea culpas aren’t going to do it when it comes to “pitch fork and torch” insurance. Gates and Buffett have already set that level at $Billions. And that might not be enough. Just sayin’

It’s also now fair to say that “the father” of all this current central bank interventionism is none other than someone who was once an Ayn Rand devotee, Alan Greenspan.

Mr. Greenspan used to hold true to the underlying principles of capitalism. Then he was appointed to the Federal Reserve – and jettisoned it all. We are now living with the legacy that he started. Not a capitalist one, no, for remember – he jettisoned that. Again, it was under his tutelage that many of the growing perversions of capitalism began.

Remember when he used to tout gold was money before he was appointed, then once in control of the Fed said it wasn’t? Now that he’s no longer on the Fed, guess what? Need I say it?

Ayn Rand is both a revered as well as reviled touchstone for many when we think of anyone for explaining the principles of what capitalism truly is.

Yet, with that said, there has been no one that has been proven more correct in their projections for the how’s and why’s for it than her.

If you read her body of work (which I have and still do) what you find is a blueprint for precisely what could be projected should just a “little bit of socialism” was allowed to enter the capitalist domain. i.e., it had the ability to kill it without haste should capitalism not be ardently and consistently defended.

But what has also been profoundly spot on is her assertions that it (socialism) would be fostered, germinate and then propagated from within the universities.

Many have brushed her warnings aside when convenient (e.g., Greenspan and others) but the issue now facing us is the fermented results of doing just that.

The problem now is that her “last laugh” for the rest of us…

Is no joking matter, to say the least.

© 2019 Mark St.Cyr

Needs A Lift

As of this writing. To wit:

(Chart Source)

And here is the latest example as to why when the financial crisis happened I made every effort to not only learn the “markets” but also to call bullsh#t where it was due. Again, to wit:

(Source: Jim Cramer giving his insight and advice for buying Lyft shares on CNBC™ via YouTube™)

You truly need to watch this clip, for that is where I pulled the above quotes from- all while remembering – this was when it was way up there.

As I have stated ad nauseam, he is the most dangerous person to anyone’s 401K. But he’s on TV so he must know what he’s talking about, right? But then again, what do I know.

© 2019 Mark St.Cyr

Addendum: I was sent the following soon after I posted the above via a colleague as to punctuate that it’s not like the aforementioned “expert” just happened to get caught on the wrong side in a “gee whizz” type scenario. So, once again, to wit:

(Source: Screen grab via thestreet.com interview)