Mr. Cook’s Dilemma

If one wanted a true “picture” as they say in Silicon Valley of just how “different this time” it is for the once most beloved stock in the world. Here is something I believe is currently keeping Mr. Cook up at night. To wit:

(Source)

There are two things of note to the above side-by-side. The first is when it comes to all the nascent calls of “The bottom is in Buy, Buy, Buy!”

This most recent “historic” bounce off the lows is not as spectacular when put into context of where we were just 3 months ago when the same “buy, buy, buy” hawkers were touting such a sell off was all but impossible, let alone improbable.

With that said, what is even more instructive is when it comes to this bounce the once “most valuable company” whose CEO decided it it was they that controlled the narrative, not Wall Street, has not only not partaken in-kind in this rally, but has barely budged off its lows.

Again, because it’s a very important point, not only is the stock lagging in this most recent BTFD (buy the f’n dip) mania. But rather – it seems it’s fallen and it can’t get up even with a near face-ripping-rally going on in the back drop.

Remember when it used to be said (like just a few months ago by the same “buy, buy, buy” hawkers) that “as goes Apple™ so goes the market?”

Let me just say to that, they had better hope it is – different this time. For if Apple is still the directional leader?

Need I say more?

© 2019 Mark St.Cyr

Time To Re-evaluate?

In an earlier observation I said “If the S&P 500™ traveled above the 2600 area I would then re-evaluate,” whether or not I still thought the current bounce was either, just that, “a bounce” before a possible resumption of the downward progression. Or, as is now being touted incessantly across the mainstream business/financial media – “The worst is over, buy, buy, buy!” So here’s my thoughts…

My thoughts of it all just being a bounce (a far more powerful one than I thought possible originally, I will admit) has not yet changed, for as it has been progressing it’s looking more to my technical eye to be just that.

Here’s what I’m now watching for further clues. To wit:

(Source)

Again, although we are above the 2600 level it still fits the bounce interpretation. It could actually run even higher (i.e., High 2700’s) and still fit in technically, however, I think looking for some type of running-out-of-steam within that area actually fits more closely into the “looking for clues” genre that are noteworthy. I notated the above chart with “anywhere in here” zone.

Should the run stop somewhere in there and suddenly fall back with some sort of followthrough back towards the lower levels is what I’m focusing on as to continue holding my original view.

As always, we shall see.

© 2019 Mark St.Cyr