The only reason for this update is because I feel it’s important. (Earlier Addendum is here)
As I’ve watched and read many a prognostication on the so-called “understandings” made in reference to the Fed. Chair’s latest speech I thought I’d follow up with what I’m looking at currently with the recent move now fully expressed for the day. Here’s two charts that are updated versions of what I showed earlier. The first is the futures. To wit:
As one can see the move broke right through my original observations. However, where it stopped, or fizzled out as some might say, is also of interest.
As I noted the area notated as “no man’s land” represents nothing more than that. i.e., it means nothing unless the market breaks above with some real follow through.
On the other hand, not breaking through or not traversing higher into that realm says far more should it not. The reasoning is simple:
If Mr.Powell or as some commentators are now expressing i.e., “blinked” then there is no reason for this market not to pile onto this already hearty move. For if they don’t, what it shows more than anything is that my hypothesis of nothing more than another version of Month-end window-dressing has taken place on the back of an event that was used for a catalyst and has now run its course.
Who knows? No one one does. All one can do is watch for clues, but at least you now have something to watch for and make your own judgements in the overnight and before the open.
As far as what is called the “cash” or normal markets everyone thinks of when thinking about them here’s an updated version of the same one I posted prior for that, with an additional notation. It pretty much speaks for itself, even for the non-technical watcher, again, to wit:
So there you have it, what may come no one knows, but at least here’s some frame work to go by, for as always…
We shall see.
© 2018 Mark St.Cyr