Day: November 19, 2018

F.T.W.S.I.J.D.G.I.G.T.

(For those who say I just don’t get it…get this)

I need to take you back to January of this year using what’s called by Silicon Valley aficionados a “picture.” To wit:

(Source)

Here’s what I wrote in reference to what I deemed Bitcoin’s $20K dilemma, but also what I called out as completely deplorable behavior by someone who is being touted on a global media outlet as an “expert.” Because, after all, the program along with its parent company are supposedly offering up advice that is of the highest quality and caliber – along with “actionable.”

From my article. To wit:

Have you heard about Bitcoin™ today? My guess is, if you’re having any experience such as mine, that is now a 50-50 proposition, depending on what day of the week it is.

An example of this, I’ll assume, goes something like this, again, based on my own non scientific results:

  • If Bitcoin is rising in price by double-digit percentages? The phone, email, or face-to-face questioning from friends and family goes from casual, or almost disinterested conversation. To demanding inquiries – even from total strangers I may pass in the street.
  • On the other hand; if Bitcoin is falling (again) by double-digits? __________________(insert crickets here.)

And here’s that “deplorable” part, again, to wit:

This type of behavior was (once again) prominently displayed on (once agin) none other than CNBC.

Yet, it seems to have taken on an even more harsh tone than ever before. I would assume it comes from the resulting issue that all those “investors” that were all but assured of even further riches – are now calling, wondering how in the world they could suddenly be so far underwater when all the so-called “experts” exuded assurances that this was all but “a sure thing.” i.e. BTFD’s (buy the F’n dips)

Last week this type of derogatory, no better ammo to counter a thesis than to throw out insults, was (once again) on full display on CNBC’s, Fast Money® program, where one of the panel members decided the best way to deal with any nay sayers was to lob a volley of nothing more than sophomoric insults.

The resulting “informative” information to bolster against anything that may claim Bitcoin may indeed be in for more trouble was met with panelist Dan Nathan berating the guest (Evercore™ ISI technician, Rick Ross) with such words of investing prowess as alluding to technical analysis as “his stick” I believe it was “schtick” but that just me.

Yet, it was his verbal coup de grâce of investing retorts that delivered all one needs to know about what’s currently taking place within the entire crypto arena. That retort? “…so go piss off, seriously.”

Ah yes, the fundamental sign (for those who want to see) that shows just how vacant the entire “get rich quick with Bitcoin” fallacy has fallen, and quickly.

Said differently: When the best argument for one’s position is nothing more than a vulgar insult, delivered meaningfully, and almost menacing in posture? On camera? Hint: That shows just how much that $20,000 high water mark is now a problem, and a very real problem at that. For the longer it doesn’t recoup back to its former highs? The more problems the entire crypto area is going to feel. Especially for those who were supposedly seen prior as “the experts.” i.e., I’d be on the lookout for the necessary bleeping of F-bombs for more clues into what’s currently taking place, than most or any the analysis I’ve heard. But that’s just me.

So how has all that “piss off” brilliance worked out? Well, let’s look at the most recent “picture” to be included into the Bitcoin family album, shall we? To wit:

But then again as I’m told so many times…

What do I know.

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr

Let the CYA Statements Begin!

I have been inundated with questions about the current gyrations not only in the “markets,” but rather, about what many are now noticing (and calling) as “pure bullsh•t” when it comes to what they are now hearing across most (if not all) of the mainstream businesses/financial outlets.

And they’re quite pissed upset.

As long time readers of my work are well aware this is something I’ve been calling attention to for quite some time. The issue has been with the roar emanating via the relentless melt up in the “markets” as the fumes of the Fed. spoils were finally burning off that “roar” allowed any calls of warning to fall on deaf ears. That is – until now.

Here’s something I’ve said many times. To wit:

“The problem with being too early is you appear wrong for all the wrong reasons and many will argue that you’re just plain wrong. The flip side of that is when all the reasons that you were early in calling suddenly arrive, all the people who were taking credit for being so smart prior suddenly appear not to be so.”

Again, as many who have followed my work of the years know all too well that one of these “so smart aficionados” that I’ve declared as “one of the most dangerous people to one’s 401K” has been none other than the buzzer-king Jim Cramer.  And with this continuing turmoil – he is proving all my prior points in spades. Here’s just a few examples. To wit:

September 18, 2018 – Cramer: Wall Street short-sellers are losing because they’re overestimating the trade war

As stocks shrugged off trade war fears on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging over 180 points, CNBC’s Jim Cramer could imagine how some Wall Street hedge fund managers were feeling.

“Many of these fund managers are kind of paranoid. They see systemic risk all over the place where it doesn’t exist,” the “Mad Money” host said. 

“Every time a country in Europe or Asia struggles with its currency or its banking system or its finances — we’re talking Turkey, Greece, Cyprus — these guys decide it’s an opportunity to short stocks,” he continued. “Every new tariff begets another reason to bet against the market.”

Here’s a bit more from the same article, again, to wit:

“Because of the tidal wave of new money coming in and the incredibly large corporate buybacks, … the shorts seem almost never to get a break. They don’t get the kind of sell-off they’re hoping for,” the “Mad Money” host said. “Instead, we get a rally that only became stronger over the course of the session.”

“The glass-all-full gang just can’t stop buying, and unless there’s a specific piece of negative news, a real shortfall, this market simply isn’t delivering the kind of declines that used to make being a short-seller so darned lucrative,” he concluded. “That’s why stocks seem to be so resilient and why the market keeps defying the odds.”

Here’s another for your consideration.

October 16, 2018 – Cramer’s ‘Mad Money’ Recap – The rally we’ve been waiting for

“When the Fed bears are away, the stock bulls will play,” Jim Cramer told his viewers Tuesday, after the markets mounted an impressive relief rally. Cramer reminded viewers that a panic is a terrible thing to waste, which is why the smart money was buying into the recent declines and not selling out of fear.

But if you are one of the lucky one’s that pay for his proprietary indicators, well, I’ll let the article speak for itself, again, to wit:

Cramer said there are several indicators he uses to determine when a selloff is reaching its last legs. The S&P Oscillator is one of those indicators, as it measures overbought and oversold conditions. But for those not willing or able to pay for this proprietary metric, you can simply look at the buying and selling volumes on any given day. When the down volume outpaces the up volume by 10 to one, you know the selloff is likely reaching its end.

However, it would seem all that indicator magic is suddenly well past its sell date. To wit:

November 15, 2018 Cramer says CEOs are telling him off the record the economy has quickly cooled

Cramer has been warning investors for weeks about a manmade slowdown in the U.S. economy, fueled by the two-pronged pressures of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and the Trump administration’s tariffs. Now, high-profile CEOs are worried about growth slowing so drastically that it could actually hurt the economy, he said.

If you’re a bit confused maybe this will clear it up from the same article, again, to wit:

“There are degrees of slowdowns that, nonetheless, can cause an awful lot of havoc and cost a lot of jobs, and that’s what we’re on the verge of here,” he said. “That’s what the markets are saying. That’s what the CEOs are worried about offline.”

The situation reminded Cramer of when, on the cusp of the 2008 financial crisis, his corporate sources confided in him that the Fed “seemed to be out of touch … with what was happening” on Wall Street, he said. That led to his now-famous “They know nothing!” rant blasting the Fed for its lack of diligence.

“I was right,” he said. “I did my best and, at that time, I made a resolution. If I thought we would ever get back into one of these situations again, I promised myself I’d be vocal about what could go wrong, even if I knew it wouldn’t be as serious as the Great Recession.”

And if you’re still confused (easily understandable for remember, these people are professionals slingers!) let me help you a bit. This is nothing more than blatant attempts to try and CYA (cover one’s backside) with heaping helpings of “baffle’m with bullsh•t” and pray they don’t look back.

Problem is – it’s all there on record – again.

What do I mean by “again?” Great question here’s the answer from October 23, 2018. To wit:

Cramer says: Investors have a ‘twofold reason’ to buy given-up-on stocks like FANG

The Federal Open Market Committee has indicated that it plans to raise interest rates once more in December and three more times in 2019, a plan that Cramer has repeatedly said could cause an economic slowdown.

“When that happens, the companies with the highest price-to-earnings multiples are the ones that benefit,” he said.

I only have one thing to say to the above…

Where’s Jon Stewart when you need him?

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr