Month: October 2018

MYTR Broadcast – Monday

Hour One:

Hour Two:

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr in assoc. with StreetCry Media Partners. All Rights Reserved

Note:

We have decided to go for an additional 30 days in “All Access” mode as we sort through more program highlights or changes as well as try to squash any “bugs” that keep seeming to show up. As Mark has said repeatedly, “Let’s do it live rather than behind the scenes this way we know how we’ll act under the pressure.”

And that’s what we’re doing, and thanks to you for being a part of it.

We launched the second hour of programming last month. Please be aware there will be no second notification or email when the next hour is added. These are being done live and the engineer is putting them up directly after they’ve concluded or been recorded therefore, the second hour will be posted in about an hour after the first.

Not sending out additional notifications frees us up from making additional posts where the program might be separated and also helps servers not recognize us as some sort of spam.

Remember, just check back later on in about an hour or so from the original and the second hour should be posted.

 

“Bubble Vision” Has Returned In Spades – Right On Cue

They say “History doesn’t repeat, but it sure does rhyme.” Today, nowhere is there a singing chorus belting out remakes of the once tried and true classics from the forgotten “hits-ville” era of bull markets past than what I witnessed across what I refer to as the mainstream business/financial media.

I perused just three of the major outlets (e.g., CNBC™, Fox Business™, Bloomberg™) over this past week, not to gain any insight into the current market gyrations, but rather to see how it was being reported. I was not disappointed in entertainment value, however, the flip side of that insinuates that those that are actually looking for insight (actually, the few) are once again being told and sold the most vapid, vacant, if not deplorable analysis for what is currently taking place in the markets today. Then again – this is precisely the same styled tunes they were spinning in 2007/08 – 1999/2000 – and 1987.

The “markets” may have recovered since then, but the reputation for insight across these platforms has not, as I’ll explain.

Now to be fair, there are many people who work at these outlets which I have both admiration, as well as respect for their insights and analysis. But you rarely, if ever, see them on camera or mic. What I’m speaking to here is what I was watching across the television side which is where most, if not all, retail consumers of this type of information get their fix. And that fix is anything but.

These outlets seem to have morphed into some quasi rendition, or cross between “The Voice,” “Do You Think You Can Dance,” and the “Gong Show” with each next-in-rotation-fund-manager auditioning for the judges/hosts in hopes they’ll be called back and a ratings hit.

If there’s no contestant available (because, they may be fielding so many incoming calls from now frightened clients) fear not. The hosts of different shows will pull together in a programming crossover styled “panel of experts” and tell you what they think. Hint: Beats the Comedy Central® offerings every time.

Let me start with CNBC earlier during the week when none other than the buzzer-king, James Cramer gave his song and dance as to why he would not be selling during the nascent sell off. When the Dow Jones Industrial Average™ was at around the mid 400’s during the market rout Mr. Cramer gave his reasoning as to why he wouldn’t be a seller. Hint: The “markets” would go on to fall  – another –  1000+ before recovering slightly.

I’m just going to mention two (although, in my opinion, is all one needs to know) of the most egregious examples given. As always, you should watch the clip and come to your own conclusions, but here’s mine.

First. A question was raised about whether or not this will impact housing and more, which was much of the catalyst for the last panic. The answer came back with some convoluted reasoning mixed in with a bit of whimsical expectations because, “FICO™ scores are much higher today…” As if this would be a reason why banks will still lend in an interest raising environment, coupled with an emerging pricing slump and increasing inventory as mortgage origination continues to fall and re-fi’s fell just this July to 20-year lows. (By the way, that was a report via CNBC, I guess they don’t read their own news, but I digress.)

The other “insight” Mr. Cramer gave was that he was pushing back against a circulating meme that this was ominously reminiscent of 1987. He then went on to give the reasons why his viewpoint was more valid than most proposing this, because, he was all “in cash” during that period so he understood what true scares were when they occurred and this was not that.

Fair point, but I was around in 2008 and actively trading in the markets and remember clearly his calls for calm and more including his now infamous “Bear Stearns” advice implying people’s money was safe to which Jon Stewart of “The Daily Show” mercilessly crucified him on his show. Mr. Cramer’s reputation (along with the networks) never recovered. That is, unless you watch CNBC. For they, much like many of their hosts, seem to have forgotten the financial crisis. Hint: Viewers have not. And that’s why they haven’t returned to these shows either. Just look at the ratings for clues.

In 2017 alone their viewership dropped to 22 year lows. And yet, if you listened to many a so-called “expert” such as this from 2009 you would have to conclude it was all about a “bull or bear market” nothing more. Hint: it wasn’t, and the-proof-is-in-the-pudding as they say.

Then there was a segment I watched on Bloomberg where the interviewed was none other than Brian Belski, the only investing strategist, in my opinion, that can make both Tom Lee and Tony Dwyer appear risk averse.

During his well crafted reasoning on why this time (as always seems to be the case) was the best time to own stocks for the long haul, he made a statement that falls directly into the reasoning for why this time is both different, as well as not, and it is this: He made the case that in his 30 years of being in the financial field he has never seen a market made up of more “renters” than he sees today. i.e., No one’s buying for the long haul, it’s more about momentum.

I have only one thing to say too that, in my best Gomer Pyle impersonation Well “Go-o-o-llee!” Ya think? And why does one think that might be, I’ll ask? Hint: Starts with Federal, ends with Reserve, equalling fast money, momentum chasing. Period. Yes Mr. Belski, this ain’t your mom and pop’s buying for the long haul market. Welcome to reality.

As vacant as most of the above was there was a complete knock down drag out of just who could out do the other as to keep at bay any assailing of the “BTFD” narrative and reasoning (buy the f’n dip), for that was what transpired on Fox’s “Varney & Co.” between the hosts and guests which included David Stockman. Here, in my humble opinion, was a rendition of “The Gong Show.”

I have been asked many times why I won’t go on any of these programs and this example exemplifies precisely why. (along with I have no inkling to travel to N.Y.C.)

Mr. Stockman was a guest along with Jonathan Golub to discuss the recent gyrations. Let’s just say there were more dance moves and gyrations trying to spin the “market” news (aka music) of the day that would make a game show contestant jealous.

The discussion (and that’s being kind) morphed into a sheer free-for-all when Mr. Stockman tried to give his reasonings to counterpoint much of what was being proclaimed. It was, again, in my humble opinion, sheer financial comic relief. However, my sympathies for trying goes out to Mr. Stockman.

I wish it could stand alone for its hilarity rather, than the truly scary nature it portends for many going forward. Halloween may have a more frightening foe if what may come to pass actually does, because it is clear: the horrors of financial panics past have been relegated to the Betamax® section for market analysis and B-roll footage. i.e., “Beta…what?”

Here’s just a few of the highlights, I would advise one to watch the clip for themselves, rather than just take my words:

During the segment the overall argument is that this is nothing more than another “BTFD” moment as argued via Mr. Golub. Mr. Stockman, of course, would have none of it and was trying to argue why. And there is the key word in that sentence: trying. Because with every counter point Mr. Stockman tried to make, it was a three against one free for all of vapid reasonings against. Here are a few, all are paraphrased:

Golub: “There was no catalyst for this sell off therefore it is a buying opportunity.”

Sorry, there was a catalyst, it’s called The Federal Reserve. And when Mr. Powell confirmed not only that they were going to continue raising rates, but in conjunction left for conclusion that the balance sheet roll-off was going to be allowed not just to continue, but to accelerate to the now assumed $50Billion per month level – the markets began selling off in unison.

Show hosts: “You know David you’ve been saying this for a long time and if people listened they would not of participated in this rally!”

Again, I’m sorry, but that same type of argument was said from about 2 years leading into then right after the top of the dot-com peak. Nearly a decade later all those that participated in that “great rally” found themselves right where it all began in what seemed like no time at all. Rhymes with dot-com crash aka “The Greenspan era.”

Then, it all happened again. Only this time it was with Bernanke (are you seeing a pattern here?) where trying to correct the prior policies with tightening into weakness brought on the next crisis where that old “buy and hold” saw allowed many a holders account to be sawn leaving the equivalent of only a stump of what was then a forest of burgeoning equities and profits.

Some weren’t so lucky as many a “stump” was removed as the markets plunged lower than the original dot-com crash the preceded it.

And here we are today in the midst of not just another Fed. blown bubble, but one where all central banks followed and are still following the Fed’s lead. And now, once again, the Fed. is tightening into weakness, along with shrinking its balance sheet that equivocates to about the same, in-kind, of additional hiking measures. i.e., a 1/4 point hike, along with the continuing reductions of balance sheet normalization equates to about the same as tightening by 1/2. So in-effect and in practice the rate cycle is the equivalent of double the stated raises.

Yet, the coup de grâce for any hopes of insight came when the questions began revolving around the answer to when Mr. Stockman had sold his holdings connected with the markets. It was at that point I knew that my decision years back to no longer watch these shows for any insight was well founded. The reasoning was simple: What is the point of knowing when Mr. Stockman sold out? Does that further the conversation for insightful dialogue or, does it just make for some seemingly vacuous “got-cha” type moment for television?

Let me make this point: One could easily have disgorged all of ones holdings of stocks during the initial downdraft of 2007, which in retrospect, we now appear to be mimicking the same gyrations – and you would have not needed to experience any losses or longing look at “missed gains” till some seven years later in early 2013 when the markets first eclipsed that initial panic stages. (Don’t take my word for it, just go look at any chart via a monthly perspective.)

Just two years later in 2015 the markets were rolling over and had dipped so much that the difference between initial sell off of 2007 and the bottoming in 2015 gains were considered “minimal” in comparison to the then risks in the markets. i.e., Then Chair Janet Yellen, in no uncertain terms, flipped on her stance of running a “hot monetary policy” to a tightening via any and all short-hairs with the election of Mr. Trump.

Only the front running of the residual “hot money” contained within the markets via the expansion of the balance sheet, along with the tax policies and repatriation laws passed to allow for buy backs and more, did the markets zoom higher. i.e. That fuel has now been expended.

To reiterate: the moment, repeat, the moment the market got its first glimpse that indeed under the new Fed. Chair Powell that the balance sheet would indeed begin (aka QT quantitative tightening) so too did the market react, and just like this recent sell off, caused the now moniker’d “February Scare” and now this possible expanding rout.

Just like myself, along with Mr. Stockman and a few others said it would.

There, just like today, was no reason or indicator seen for the sell off. That is: only if you don’t consider this as a market reaction to the only thing that has mattered for the last 10 years aka Federal Reserve. If you don’t – then of course you don’t see anything, which is precisely my underlying point.

Mr. Stockman is seen during the end of this interview basically throwing up his hands in disgust, for there truly was no discussion taking place. It was all just about some form of “See, we’re right and you’re wrong!” i.e., You’ve been wrong and we have this wonderful rally as to prove it too you and everyone else.”

Sounds pretty convincing until begins employing reasoned arguments to the contrary. That’s why Mr. Stockman, I assume, threw his hands in the air, i.e., There is no reasoning going on here, just narrative pushing.

Here’s just one thing to contemplate I’ll leave you with dear reader as you take what I’ve illustrated above:

If for whatever the reasoning this “market” suddenly sells off mimicking 2007-09 fashion as it seems to be giving clues of doing just that.  Along with, if we sold off in what is purely an acceptable, and within reasoning, to the next purely text book example or conclusion or technical area of support, which is somewhere in the area from where the now moniker’d “Trump Bump” began, circa Nov. 2016. How do you believe not just the U.S., but in unison with all the other markets globally that have been propelled on central bank stimulus – will react?

That’s the question that is not being asked across all of these platforms. Which is why I (and what seems is most others) can no longer tune in.

Actually, what may be worse is that they think it can’t ever happen again, because: “It’s different this time.”

All I’ll say to that is: “Of course it is, that’s why the old saw uses the term ‘rhyme.'”

Think about it.

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr

MYTR Broadcast – Friday

Hour One:

Hour Two:

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr in assoc. with StreetCry Media Partners. All Rights Reserved

Note:

We have decided to go for an additional 30 days in “All Access” mode as we sort through more program highlights or changes as well as try to squash any “bugs” that keep seeming to show up. As Mark has said repeatedly, “Let’s do it live rather than behind the scenes this way we know how we’ll act under the pressure.”

And that’s what we’re doing, and thanks to you for being a part of it.

We launched the second hour of programming last month. Please be aware there will be no second notification or email when the next hour is added. These are being done live and the engineer is putting them up directly after they’ve concluded or been recorded therefore, the second hour will be posted in about an hour after the first.

Not sending out additional notifications frees us up from making additional posts where the program might be separated and also helps servers not recognize us as some sort of spam.

Remember, just check back later on in about an hour or so from the original and the second hour should be posted.

Addendum to: “A Few Additions…”

I usually don’t do so many updates in one day, but today has been one for the books. The following are a few recent “pictures” of what I’ve been calling attention to over the last few weeks. The following is just the latest in the succession. You can see the originals by clicking here and then using the links contained with those to go back further if you so desire.

So with that said here is where we stand as of around 8:00pm ET, Thursday evening. To wit:

Original call:

Today’s result:

Where the “market” currently stands in relation to the first trading days of 2018:

(Source)

One group of people (coughmainstream business/financial mediacough) has been right all year for the wrong reasons.

The other group, such as people like myself, have been wrong for the right reasons. The reason?

The Federal Reserve.

What happens when people like myself are proven out to be correct and the others are not? Hint: The above shows it precisely as predicted.

For those that believed the first, hook-line-and sinker and thought BTFD (buying the f’n dip) was never going to end badly, and allowed themselves to be convinced by this very same crowd that people like myself were as they liked to call “the doom and gloom crew?”

You have my condolences.

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr

MYTR Broadcast – Thursday

Hour One:

Hour Two:

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr in assoc. with StreetCry Media Partners. All Rights Reserved

Note:

We have decided to go for an additional 30 days in “All Access” mode as we sort through more program highlights or changes as well as try to squash any “bugs” that keep seeming to show up. As Mark has said repeatedly, “Let’s do it live rather than behind the scenes this way we know how we’ll act under the pressure.”

And that’s what we’re doing, and thanks to you for being a part of it.

We launched the second hour of programming last month. Please be aware there will be no second notification or email when the next hour is added. These are being done live and the engineer is putting them up directly after they’ve concluded or been recorded therefore, the second hour will be posted in about an hour after the first.

Not sending out additional notifications frees us up from making additional posts where the program might be separated and also helps servers not recognize us as some sort of spam.

Remember, just check back later on in about an hour or so from the original and the second hour should be posted.

A Few Additions To The “Family Album”

I just wanted to add a few more “pictures” as the say in Silicon Valley into what I now call the “Family Album of Markets.” There’s an ulterior motive for posting these in addition to just making my observations available and that motive is this: I want to make sure this is on the record for public consumption as to make note to the many times I have warned and called out the current state of mainstream media financial/business shows not only has now been validated, again, but going forward just how much unlearning, (never-mind re-learning) will now be needed to understand what is truly happening today.

I say this because of this reason: I tuned into CNBC™ to see how things were being reported and low and behold when the Dow™ was down only (yes, imagine using that word) 400 or so points none other than the buzzer-king himself Jim Cramer was on giving his “I would not sell…” routine and why. It was, for those of us that remember, much along the same tripe he gave when Bear Stearns was collapsing and the markets were roiling.

I am going to go on the record here and state that this “insight” that was professed by him will be the final nail in his brand of investing and will be a note mark in history that people will point to just like when Jon Stewart did on his show back then. I’ll have plenty more to say about it on my show later today.

Below are a few updated “pictures” to compare with what I posited in prior posts.

First, here is the S&P 500™ as of yesterdays cash close. To wit:

Here’s China overnight via the Hang Seng and Shanghai Indexes:

 

And for those who don’t understand the word “contagion?” Here’s Europe’s main indexes as of this writing  at about 8:30 am ET:

(Source)

I’ll have more (in fact much more!) to say about all this on today’s show, so as they say in media land…

Be sure to tune in!

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr

Addendum:

I usually don’t do so many updates in one day, but today has been one for the books. The following a few recent “pictures” of what I’ve been calling attention to over the last few weeks. The following is just the latest in the succession. You can see the originals by clicking here and then using the links contained with those to go back further if you so desire.

So with that said here is where we stand as of around 8:00pm ET, Thursday evening. To wit:

Original call:

Today’s result:

Where the “market” currently stands in relation to the first trading days of 2018:

(Source)

One group of people (coughmainstream business/financial mediacough) has been right all year for the wrong reasons.

The other group, such as people like myself, have been wrong for the right reasons. The reason?

The Federal Reserve.

What happens when people like myself are proven out to be correct and the others are not? Hint: The above shows it precisely as predicted.

For those that believed the first, hook-line-and sinker and thought BTFD (buying the f’n dip) was never going to end badly, and allowed themselves to be convinced by this very same crowd that people like myself were as they liked to call “the doom and gloom crew?”

You have my condolences.

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr

MYTR Broadcast – Wednesday

Today is turning into an important day, both for the show, as well as what we’ve been expressing. If you’ve never listened before, or have taken a break, today is quite possibly turning into one of those seminal moments and may be one of the most crucial days for understanding its relevance since launching.

Hour One:

Hour Two:

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr in assoc. with StreetCry Media Partners. All Rights Reserved

Note:

We have decided to go for an additional 30 days in “All Access” mode as we sort through more program highlights or changes as well as try to squash any “bugs” that keep seeming to show up. As Mark has said repeatedly, “Let’s do it live rather than behind the scenes this way we know how we’ll act under the pressure.”

And that’s what we’re doing, and thanks to you for being a part of it.

We launched the second hour of programming last month. Please be aware there will be no second notification or email when the next hour is added. These are being done live and the engineer is putting them up directly after they’ve concluded or been recorded therefore, the second hour will be posted in about an hour after the first.

Not sending out additional notifications frees us up from making additional posts where the program might be separated and also helps servers not recognize us as some sort of spam.

Remember, just check back later on in about an hour or so from the original and the second hour should be posted.

 

MYTR Broadcast – Tuesday

Hour One:

Hour Two:

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr in assoc. with StreetCry Media Partners. All Rights Reserved

Note:

We have decided to go for an additional 30 days in “All Access” mode as we sort through more program highlights or changes as well as try to squash any “bugs” that keep seeming to show up. As Mark has said repeatedly, “Let’s do it live rather than behind the scenes this way we know how we’ll act under the pressure.”

And that’s what we’re doing, and thanks to you for being a part of it.

We launched the second hour of programming last month. Please be aware there will be no second notification or email when the next hour is added. These are being done live and the engineer is putting them up directly after they’ve concluded or been recorded therefore, the second hour will be posted in about an hour after the first.

Not sending out additional notifications frees us up from making additional posts where the program might be separated and also helps servers not recognize us as some sort of spam.

Remember, just check back later on in about an hour or so from the original and the second hour should be posted.

 

Addendum to “For those trying…”

I received a call from a collegue nearly moments after I posted asking me along the lines of “So what does that mean for the U.S. in your purview? Here’s the “picture” form of the probable 1000 words I used. To wit:

The above is the S&P 500™ as of about 9:45am ET. The intervals are represented via 15 minute candle/bars. I believe nothing more needs to be added for it’s pretty self explanatory. I thought I’ld just add it to the previous hypothesis for those of you who also may want to know what I’m currently looking at.

As always, we shall see.

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr

For Those Trying To Keep Abreast

I wanted to post a chart with some notations that I feel are quite telling. As I watched many an interview and read many a commentary on the recent weakness surrounding these markets I was, once again, struck on just how clueless and vapid (whether intentionally or not) most of the so-called “analysis” of the current state of these “markets” were. Is it any wonder why their ratings are no longer listed, but I digress.

Below is a chart of China’s Hang Seng Index represented via daily intervals of bars/candles. I’ve made some notations that are easy enough to understand even if one doesn’t really get all that “technical stuff.” You don’t have to, I do, so with that here’s what I’m looking at. To wit:

(Source)

What the above depicts are a few items that need to be watched over the coming weeks, for they may, repeat, may give some indication of what may be coming over the horizon that has the potential to disrupt these “markets” in ways I’ll bet the now Chair Fed. Powell may curse the day he accepted the position.

To repeat, the above is only for illustrative purposes as to show what happened prior, it’s result, what’s happened since, along with the same size and scope in proportion and when these moves began manifesting. Hint: rhymes with initial interest rate hikes, and verification of balance sheet roll offs.

The resulting moves speak for themselves.

Should China’s market cascade in what’s called a “falling knife” styled selloff from where it resides as of this writing, to where I notated at the bottom of that chart, the question is: Do you think they’ll be some panicked style gyrations felt throughout the entire market complex? Or, does one want to just sit back and say, “Hey, the people on the television said ‘It’s all baked in’ just a week or so ago, and they must know what they’re talking about, right?”

As always, we shall see. But one last note. If you think the above looks a little unsettling? Hint: Europe’s aren’t looking that much different. And that’s the supposed “developed markets” as opposed to China which is still considered an “emerging market.”

But the people on the financial TV shows are there because they’re the so-called “smart crowd” right?

Right?

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr

Addendum:

I received a call from a collegue nearly moments after I posted asking me along the lines of “So what does that mean for the U.S. in your purview? Here’s the “picture” form of the probable 1000 words I used. To wit:

The above is the S&P 500™ as of about 9:45am ET. The intervals are represented via 15 minute candle/bars. I believe nothing more needs to be added for it’s pretty self explanatory. I thought I’ld just add it to the previous hypothesis for those of you who also may want to know what I’m currently looking at.

As always, we shall see.

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr