F.T.W.S.I.J.D.G.I.G.T.

(For those who say I just don’t get it…get this)

Over the years I’ve taken quite a bit of heat when I dared question what was being told/sold across much, if not most, of the mainstream business/financial media. To put it mildly: not only was I not winning any friends, but was viewed as publicly stepping-on-toes that some deemed “off-limits,” especially for someone like myself who is, in many ways, in the same business. i.e., speaks from a stage or platform in the “motivation/business advice business.”

Many thought (at first) is was some lame attempt on my part as to try to elevate myself in some pitiful form at trying to punch-above-my-weight. i.e., publicly blow “raspberries” at the current “high priest or priestesses” in a specific category for publicity’s sake. As I’ve stated over the years – “that just ain’t my style.”

Regardless who I may differ with: I make my case, and let you dear reader decide for yourself, as it should be. Because it really doesn’t matter what I think, it only matters if it makes you think, then, use it – or completely disregard it. (On a side note, for those who may be new, I have just as much, if not more, published and/or quoted or referenced financial commentary on markets, business, and global affairs than most I have ever criticized. And yes, even those who may be deemed as “Big Wigs.”)

Advice or insight, any advice or insight for that matter, is only valuable if it can be applied in some pragmatic fashion as to better your own business or personal circumstances. But (and it’s a very big but) the absolute worst advice you’ll ever come across – is the one where you just blindly accept what someone is telling you without truly understanding all the ramifications of said advice, which is not so gleefully expressed from a stage or book, because they have some form of name recognition. i.e., If it sounds too good to be true? Even if Mr. X. or Ms. Y is shouting it from some platform. (I think you know the rest.)

And nothing attracts “Dreams of Riches” faster than moths-to-a-flame than “making it big in real-estate” road shows. The problem is many of these types of events leave many an attendee with results more similar to a moth than most “millionaire real-estate moguls.” i.e., most end up just burned, and very severely at that.

Which brings me to the reason for this article.

In May of last year I penned the following article titled, “They’re Baaack! And Why You Should Be Worried – Very Worried!”

Here’s the argument I made at the open. To wit:

Bubbles are easy to spot – pinpointing when they’ll pop – is quite another.

I coined that phrase a while back which is nothing more than adding my own spin combining two very old catch phrases used by seasoned traders and investors. I use the word “seasoned” for a reason. Why?

Because they’re the ones that have been around (and been burned themselves) yet lived to trade, or invest, another day. Those who remained wedded (usually the novice or one who’s never experienced true volatility) to the more prominent and specious claims of “you can’t tell when you’re in a bubble” followed with “you can always get out in time” for the most part are long gone. i.e.,The bubble popped into the ether – along with their money.

Nowhere was this phenom more apparent than the real-estate boom of the early 2000’s, which followed the prior phenom only 10 years prior (e.g., the dot-com crash) that should have seared into people’s memory for millennia just how “bubbles” take shape – and the resulting financial devastation that happens rapidly once they’ve popped.

Guess what? (actually you already know) nobody seems too care. Yet, here’s something you may not know, but should: It’s all happening again, and in the same time frame.

We are once again (you’re going to see that phrase a lot) hovering in and around the all-time highs in the “markets.” And, once again, all the warning signs are coming into place that should be the tell-tale signs for prudence and caution. Here are three, but they’re a very big 3 when combined. Ready?

  1. Tony Robbins has authored another financial book.

  2. Suze Orman has once again reemerged to deliver her brand of financial advice.

  3. They’re both delivering their insights at a venue titled (wait for it) Real Estate Wealth Expo™, where you too can learn how to become a millionaire via real estate.

The backlash was near instantaneous which was understandable. But how has all this “advice” worked out now one year later? Great question, let’s look shall we? Again, to wit:

Via an article this week by Steve Saretsky on Wolf Street™:

Canadian housing data continued to disappoint in the month of June. Albeit the year-over-year decline in home sales was not nearly as disappointing as the month of May. National home sales fell 11% year-over-year in June, a slight upgrade from the 16% decline suffered in May.

As sales dipped, so too did the total amount spent on real estate. The total dollar volume dipped 12% year-over-year in June, totaling C$23.5 billion. A tough blow to government tax coffers which have reaped record sums of property tax dollars in recent years.

The national slowdown was particularly unkind to the province of BC where home sales slid 33% year over year, the largest draw-down since June of 2008. Weak buying activity hit Greater Vancouver & Victoria the hardest, sales fell 38% and 30% respectively.

However, the pullback was not exclusive to the province of BC. Other than small year over year gains in Quebec City, Toronto, and Montreal, most major cities were hit with a drop in home sales.

Which brings me back to the point I originally made when I first wrote my article, which was this:

As you jump, cheer, and shout as Tony or any other speaker there screams from the stage for you to shout in unison, or to the person directly adjacent to you, “I own you!” as some mantra for you to remember as to help solidify your reasoning, and wherewithal as to commit to your decision making process. Let me add this one note of caution…

That is precisely what the banks, mortgage holders, credit card companies, city, and county real estate tax authorities, IRS, bankruptcy courts, lawyers, and more will be shouting at you if there’s even a hiccup in this current BTFD “market” stampede.

I’m pretty confident that there are still quite a few attendees jumping up-and-down and shouting,

Just not for the original idea of what they were sold, of that, I’m pretty confident.

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr

Footnote: These “FTWSIJDGIGT” articles came into being when many of the topics I had opined on over the years were being openly criticized for “having no clue”. Yet, over the years these insights came back around showing maybe I knew a little bit more than some were giving me credit for. It was my way of tongue-in-cheek as to not use the old “I told you so” analogy. I’m saying this purely for the benefit of those who may be new or reading here for the first time (and there are a great many of you and thank you too all). I never wanted or want to seem like I’m doing the “Nah, nah, nah, nah, nah” type of response to my detractors. I’d rather let the chips fall – good or bad – and let readers decide the credibility of either side. Occasionally however, there are, and have been times they do need to be pointed out which is why these now have taken on a life of their own. (i.e., something of significance per se that may have a direct impact on one’s business etc., etc.) And readers, colleagues, and others have requested their continuance.