Dear, “It’s Different This Time”: You’ve Got Mail!

Over the years I have found myself at the center of many “debates” when it came to the entire social-media phenom and its larger topic of “Silicon Valley” in general.

And during this period I have found myself ( both directly and indirectly i.e., by name or, grouped in as part of the “doom and gloom crew” that shall not be named) many times being used as some virtual piñata.

So much so, that I began applying my own moniker to what I deemed the “aficionado set” as a way to encompass all this so-called “in the know” crowd under one banner.

Primarily this group was composed of the many one would see throughout the mainstream business/financial media whether TV, radio, print, et al. The smugness and arrogance dripped from this crowd like a toddler’s diaper after their fifth sippy-cup. It was, to say the least, pathetic in my view.

To those who haven’t been following my work that long and don’t really understand how the above fits into this context, here’s a screenshot that encapsulates it, which I’ve used over the years when I felt helped make a point. To wit:

Photo credit: Screenshot publicly viewed Twitter™ Feed.

The article they were “discussing” at the time was when I wrote “‘Crying Towels’ Silicon Valley’s Next Big Investment Op” and since that moment nearly all the proposals I put forth have come to pass. What seems to be taking place now is the ramifications when “Being wrong for the right reasons.” begins to be proven as the correct stance.

And for those who’ve wondered why I use the term “as they say in The Valley: pictures” when I post some charts – now you know. And for the others looking at the above wondering, “Who are these people?” Well, at that time, one used to be a near fixture on “Bloomberg™” when it came to everything Silicon Valley and “investing.” But since the Fed. pulled QE he seems to no longer be needed as much. Scheduling conflicts I’m sure, but I digress.

The reason why the above is needed is for context, because, as of late, I’ve been opining about the similarities between AOL™ signaling the end of the “tech boom” and Facebook™ today.

So similar in view have these been playing out that I began using the term “Rhyming with an auto-tuner.” I have been nearly alone in my calls for caution, and when I’ve not been alone it’s been for situations resembling the above. i.e., ridicule, and more. After all , “Look at the stock price!” has been the clarion call-to-arms against anyone daring to say words against the “It’s different this time” truth-sayers.

And then, suddenly: It’s different this time. The problem? Because it’s not. To wit:

(Source: Front-page screenshot Drudge Report™)

And that my friends is precisely what I mean when I have stated over and over, and over again “Why being wrong for the right reasons matters rather, than the other way around.” The reasoning is simple:

When it’s over, it’s over. And everything you believed you learned by being rewarded countless times to just “BTFD” (buy the f’n dip) – suddenly becomes the worst learned habitual trait that you’ll ever need to overcome.

But don’t shed a tear for Mark, because he’s been selling out at prices that may no longer be available again. Ever.

Just ask any prior AOL™ bag-holder stock holder of the prior “Tech bubble.” I’m more than certain they’ll get a chuckle if one says “But it was supposed to be different this time!”

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr