Day: April 15, 2018

It Only Took 10 Weeks To Disavow 10 Years Of Investing Prowess

Let’s start off with a rhetorical question: What does investing in today’s “markets” have in common with cryptocurrencies?

Answer: Hope, and a lot of bullsh*t parading as “expertise.”

Now I know this will make many in the crypto-arena upset, however, that’s pretty much inline with what I stated about the entire “unicorn” phenom back when it was also unpopular to say, but I’ll let the results speak for themselves. e.g., How’s that whole Uber™ thing working out? Sorry, too soon?

The reason why I make the assertion that these “markets” have far more in common with cryptos, is the fact, that their valuations rise and fall on only one thing: Innuendo parading as possible hope. Hint: If one thought “hope” wasn’t a strategy, just think of how flawed the aforementioned is. Truly think about it, for its absolute crazy-town the more one tries to wrap their head around just how far down the rabbit hole we’ve gone. Even Alice would be amazed.

Have you heard of the investing genius now known as “HODL?” (hold on for dear life) Those that were fortunate enough (whether by genius or dumb luck) to invest in the crypto-arena back when buying a pizza took the equivalent of multiple whole Bitcoins™, watched “pizza money” turn into serious valuations worth tens of thousands. For some, it was $Millions and then some.

For those that invested later? Let’s just say watching $20K turn into $5-and-change-K  does not instill confidence for HODL. And for those that did invest earlier? HODL has now morphed into a game of: “Do I get out here? Or, wait for another bounce? And what if there isn’t one?”

These “bounces” that have materialized over the last few weeks in the crypto-arena have been nothing more that innuendos parading as hope. Headlines, analysis and more try to parse why “cryptos are back,” because of some out-of-the-blue bounce, or rise. Yet, every-time they rise – they’ve fallen back, usually lower. So much for all that “insight,” correct?

Yet, you’re told not too worry, just HODL.

Again, that may sound like prudent advise if you invested when it was “pizza money.” But if you’re one of the “lucky” ones that got in on the advice of the perusing “retirement gurus” post $20K? You have my condolences.

On a side note, one of the “gurus” of crypto is predicting Bitcoin to be around $25K by the end of year. Hint: If you were in at the top when they were predicting Bitcoin to the moon? That would get you to around break even. Just pay no attention to the near 75% downdraft. After-all, it’s up nearly 25% since those lows! How can you argue with that type of investing prowess, right? Right?

Again, every time, as of late, where cryptos have bounced favorably (only to once again resolve lower) has been the result of some form of specious narrative building to give credence that the rise is “for real, this time!”

If one listens to that day’s “expert” paraded out across the mainstream financial/business media (see above link for proof) one would be hard pressed to find anything truly insightful in their reasoning. In other words, it’s all bullsh*t parading as “insight.” If you want some real insight into the health of the crypto arena, may I suggest the following:

Have you noticed that the once heralded “retirement guru of cryptos” advertisement for his “crypto retirement insights”  that filled ones news feed repeatedly have suddenly  vanished even more rapidly than the latest multi-$thousand valuation downdraft in cryptos? I know, just coincidence, right?

Which brings right up to today’s “investing prowess” of the last decade when it comes to the “markets.” i.e., HODL is now the new BTFD when it comes to these “markets.”

Why? Easy, February happened, and nothing has been the same since. Well, one thing has. i.e., Next-in-rotation fund managers, economists, so-called “smart-crowd” et al. now sound like their crypto brethren when it comes remaining invested in this now turbulent (as measured via the near decade prior) market.

Now what your being told/sold is, “earnings are said to be good, employment is full, multiples are reasonable.” And as for the Fed? “Completely under-control, all priced in, steady as she goes.” Which has now been translated to mean: “I wouldn’t be adding here, but I wouldn’t be selling.” Hence, todays next-in-rotation fund-mangers version of cryptos HODL.

Every-time there’s been a “bounce” it’s been heralded as some sort of reasoning that “Well, earnings are projected to come in at blah, blah, blah.”

However, when the market has suddenly (once again) dropped 200, 400, and yes, even a 1000 point drop which recalibrated the historical record for the most, repeat, the most e-va – single point drop in the history of the markets, the reaction, along with reasoning was? “Bueller?”

The reason for the “Bueller” reference is simple: They were just as much of a deer-in-the-headlights as were the myriad of investors who suddenly woke to find that BTFD (buying the f’n dip) had more in common with HODL than they ever dreamed possible.

Suddenly investing in the “markets,” along with the advice for it, morphed into something akin of a weird science joke of investing alchemy. i.e., You were promised a shower scene with Kelly Lebrock, and you’re getting it, just its Kelly of today, not the 80’s fame. (No disrespect intended, but it is a distinction with a vey big difference, I’m sure even Ms. Lebrock would concede as a fair point.)

The issue now is this: What happens when the remaining hold outs finally come to terms with the realization that both BTFD investing prowess, along with HODL genius, are not only similar, but about as insightful, pragmatic, and prudent as asking a street vagrant what they think of current real-estate valuations – then handing them your wallet.

I have a feeling that answer is more at hand than many believe. For if cryptos have shown us one thing over the last 10 weeks it is this…

Since the Federal Reserve proved that not only had quantitative tightening commenced, but appears to be on complete auto-pilot, BTFD and HODL is quickly becoming the most dreaded acronyms of investing genius.

And it’s only been about 10 weeks. Imagine what the next 10 may bring.

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr