F.T.W.S.I.J.D.G.I.G.T.

(For those who say I just don’t get it…get this!)

Let’s just say the (speakers) results speak for themselves: literally, factually, and any other “lly” one would like to add to their own descriptor of choice.

Over the years I have taken quite a bit of heat when I’ve (dared!) criticized others in my field. (Let’s just say “advice and/or motivation” field for context.) And none more so than when I gave my opinion on the recent reinvention platform Tony Robbins has embarked on into the financial advice arena (again, literally!) with books and speeches. Or, with the sudden re-appearance of “America’s Financial Expert and Advisor” Suze Orman onto this same stage. (Yep, again, literally!)

Back in March of last year I wrote the following article titled: “They’re Baaack! And Why You Should Be Worried – Very Worried”

In it I made my points as to the Why’s, and more importantly, How’s, this might all end up. To wit:

So, let me make this statement right-off-the-bat: This isn’t a hit piece about either Tony, Suze, or The Expo. What I’m strictly relating my argument too is the phenom and psychology that reemerges with a vengeance during what is known as “the topping process.” aka “The late stages of a bubble mentality.”

This is the moment in time where generic, over simplified advice, that sounds so good (and too good) shouted too an adoring crowd  – should be taken as the siren, and clarion call to those who are diligent in preserving their wealth to buckle up, buckle down, and prepare in earnest. For once this show is over? “Over” is going to be something many of those attending these types of seminars are going to pray for – as in “Please make it stop!”

Let’s see I stacked up against all that “financial insight” and “brand power” to those, that more than likely, went directly out into the real world and employed all that new-found skill with zeal, shall we? Again, to wit:

“Home Prices Sink, Sales Plunge in Toronto”

“Home sales in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada’s largest housing market, plunged 35% in February compared to a year ago, to 5,175 homes. The plunge in volume was spread across all types of homes. Even the previously white-hot condo sector froze over:

Detached houses -41.2%
Semi-detached houses -28.7%
Townhouses -26.8%
Condos -30.8%.”

Or, you can get a different viewpoint for the ongoing disintegration of that market this way. Again, from the article…

“The average price for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) plunged 12.4% overall to C$767,818. This represents a drop of about C$110,000 in the average home price over the 12-month period.

It split up this way:

City of Toronto: -6.1% to C$806,494.
Rest of the GTA without Toronto: -16.1% to C$743,196.
The movements of average prices showed a large disparity by home type, between condos, whose prices still rose despite a 30% plunge in sales volume, and the rest of the market:

Detached houses -17.2% to C$1,000,736
Semi-detached houses -8.6% to C$756,894
Townhouses -2.9% to C$638,691
Condos +10.1% to C$529,782”

If you think the above is a sad commentary of the “value” the attendees received (and if you are one, my condolences) there is some levity. The problem is, it shows just how sad (as well as deplorable, in my opinion) this entire thing really is. Once again, from Mr. Richter’s article. To wit:

“Given these dynamics that are now playing out in Toronto’s housing market, the TREB tries to put a positive spin on them, understandably. A year ago, the Toronto housing bubble went totally nuts, peaking in April with a 30% year-over-year spike in the average home price to C$920,800! By this measure, over the 10 months, the average home price has plunged 17%, or C$153,000. That’s a big chunk of money for those folks who bought in April.

So it’s not fair to compare this year to the final paroxysm of the bubble last year, says the TREB. Better to compare home prices to two years ago. And by the two-year comparison, home prices are actually up:

However, putting aside the price spike reported in the first quarter of 2017, it is important to note that February’s average price remained 12% higher than the average reported for February 2016, which represents an annualized increase well above the rate of inflation for the past two years.
This kind of thinking that is now creeping into the reports to brush off what is happening on the ground is a sign of just how worried the real estate industry in Toronto is about the new dynamics in the housing market.”

You just can’t make that type of stuff up, for it’s so egregious and specious it makes Snake Oil purveyors look down right trustworthy.

The only thing worse, in my opinion, is this “road show” is planning an encore next month back in (wait for it…) Toronto.

Funny thing is, this time? Tony and Suze seem to not be appearing.

Scheduling conflicts, I’m sure.

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr

 

Footnote: These “FTWSIJDGIGT” articles came into being when many of the topics I had opined on over the years were being openly criticized for “having no clue”. Yet, over the years these insights came back around showing maybe I knew a little bit more than some were giving me credit for. It was my way of tongue-in-cheek as to not use the old “I told you so” analogy. I’m saying this purely for the benefit of those who may be new or reading here for the first time (and there are a great many of you and thank you too all). I never wanted or want to seem like I’m doing the “Nah, nah, nah, nah, nah” type of response to my detractors. I’d rather let the chips fall – good or bad – and let readers decide the credibility of either side. Occasionally however, there are, and have been times they do need to be pointed out which is why these now have taken on a life of their own. (i.e., something of significance per se that may have a direct impact on one’s business etc., etc.) And readers, colleagues, and others have requested their continuance.