Let’s have a bit of fun with ‘pictures’ as they say in Silicon Valley. First…
Can you guess who this is? Answers below, no peeking!
Hint: It’s not who you think it is.
Have you ever heard the term, “Correlation doesn’t equal causation?” It’s a very good example that always should be held front of mind, for you always want to make sure you’re not just kidding yourself when looking for clues.
However, with that said, that doesn’t mean there are not underlying effects that may not signal 100% causation, yet, are far more influential than they may appear, or at least thought of. Which brings us to our next ‘picture.”
Can you guess what this may, or may not, correlate to with causation influences? To wit:
And last, but by no means least. Can you tell if the following ‘picture’ would indict erroneous conclusions for either? How about possibly holding both simultaneously, while being neither wrong, nor right? Yes, conundrum indeed. But that’s where the fun takes place for those looking for clues, yes? Again, to wit:
How’d you do? Did you think the first was a Bitcoin™ chart? Quite understandable if you did, but no.
Did you think the second was solely some representative form of valuation for the companies listed? Maybe a bit of a trick question, because it is a “yes” and “no,” depending on how one wants to frame the question.
And lastly, how did you do one the last? Looks pretty eery, does it not? Especially with what the “market” is currently doing these days. Yet, does it “correlate,” or is it “causational?” Or is it both? Again, sorry for the “tricky” part. But, sometimes, everything isn’t just a clean crisp line to follow.
So, without further ado, here they are screen-captured, in full…
Number 1: Stock chart of Swiss National Bank™
Number 2: Latest released numbers of holdings and valuations of (wait for it…) The Swiss National Bank. Didn’t know this bank was also one of the world’s largest hedge funds? If not: Welcome to the club of 99% of most “investors.” i.e., The 401K holding, investing public.
Ever wonder where all those “buyers” from nowhere came from in the FAANG family of investing prowess over the years? Isn’t printing money ex nihilo great?! Well, that is, as long as you can sell it for real cash. You know, like someone’s (or something) is doing right now. Correlation, causation? Tricky questions indeed, yes?
Number Three: Cross-rate of the US$ and the Swiss Franc. And for those not aware (which is by far too many) the Swiss have a very bad habit of making, or removing, currency pegs abruptly, without prior announcements or indications. Think there’s any “stress” as they say looking at the following? To wit:
As always, “beauty” is always in the eyes of the beholder. But that doesn’t mean one shouldn’t look a little deeper, or a little closer as to try and picture where things may or may not be heading. So it’s on that note I leave you with this for your own interpretations. For after-all, that’s truly the only one that matters in the end. Again, to wit:
Then again: What would happen if suddenly they (The Swiss Bank or Government per se) made a dramatic move in either their currency or stock portfolio? What about doing both simultaneously?
Nah, that’s probably too much of that other c-word aka conjecture. Or, then again…
© 2018 Mark St.Cyr