F.T.W.S.I.J.D.G.I.G.T.

(For those who say I just don’t get it…get this!)

Over the holiday weekend I penned my thoughts on the current status revolving around IPO’s. i.e., I all but declared them and the unicorn’s back they rode in on D.O.A.

It seems, once again, before the digital ink is allowed to dry, that something will occur, that immediately causes people I know to suddenly call, or fill my email box with, “Did you see this?! What do you think about what you said now?!!”

So it is in that vein, I offer the following. As always, doesn’t matter what I think, let it be about what you do. Ready?

Did you know, or hear, that Spotify™(the streaming service) filed for an IPO earlier this week? Well, maybe you did, maybe you didn’t. But what’s striking is the difference between yesterday (i.e. during QE) and today, is this:

Today’s IPO sensations now seem to want to file “confidentially.”

Remember when any “disruptor” couldn’t wait to proclaim ad nauseam across any media channel that would cover them (along with any-and-all next-in-rotation fund managers) that they were filing for an IPO at near any moment, even if it was God-knows-when in the future? There were pre-celebrations to celebrate the possibility of a real celebration. Tongue-in-cheek yes, but not by much.

Today? Shhhhhh… It’s a secret. (Hint: Snapchat™ was one of the latest examples)

So why would one want to file under the guise of hush-hush? Well maybe there are two very important considerations. The first…

How did it solve what has been reported as “a sticky debt deal” overhang of $1Billion that was clogging up the works of an IPO? Hint: Once again it seems a Chinese based tech company is to thank for rescue. e.g. Tencent™

If the name “Tencent” sounds familiar, see the aforementioned Snapchat for further clues or insights.

Or maybe it wanted to keep things on the quiet because if things became noisy – creepy crawly things might suddenly come out of the woodwork, or from behind other closed doors in search of their own payday. You know – like a lawsuit. To wit:

“Spotify files to go public as it faces a $1.6Billion copyright infringement suit.”

That just came out over the last 24 hours or so. Funny how that happens, right?

Or maybe the other motivation for keeping everything quiet is because of what has happened to that other streaming service that was supposed to be the true “disruptor.” e.g., Pandora™.

You remember them don’t you? Here, let me show you a picture to help you remember. And for some of you still trying to forget getting in early on their IPO? You have my condolences. Again, to wit:

(Chart Source)

Maybe this is the real reason. Again, it’s all conjecture on my part, but as Rod Stewart famously sang, “Every picture tell’s a story, don’t it?”

What ever story that is – is – for you to decide. Or as I myself have said, many times from the stage…

Just like you heard mothers say for years, “It’s all fun and games till someone loses an eye” Well, much goes the same in business as in “It’s all fun and games till the bank demands to see the account balances.”

Then, just like before – everything goes silent, right before the real bawling begins.

© 2018 Mark St.Cyr

 

Footnote: These “FTWSIJDGIGT” articles came into being when many of the topics I had opined on over the years were being openly criticized for “having no clue”. Yet, over the years these insights came back around showing maybe I knew a little bit more than some were giving me credit for. It was my way of tongue-in-cheek as to not use the old “I told you so” analogy. I’m saying this purely for the benefit of those who may be new or reading here for the first time (and there are a great many of you and thank you too all). I never wanted or want to seem like I’m doing the “Nah, nah, nah, nah, nah” type of response to my detractors. I’d rather let the chips fall – good or bad – and let readers decide the credibility of either side. Occasionally however, there are, and have been times they do need to be pointed out which is why these now have taken on a life of their own. (i.e., something of significance per se that may have a direct impact on one’s business etc., etc.) And readers, colleagues, and others have requested their continuance.