(For those who say I just don’t get it…get this!)
In Septemer of 2014 I dared not only speak the unthinkable, but to the howls and screams of next-in-rotation fund mangers, Silicon Valley aficionados, mainstream financial/business media outlets et al, I dared stand behind my reasoning too this day. And yes, even in the face of an unrelenting melt-up.
The issue that is now quite apparent in retrospect, yet still unspoken by most, has been that it has been my observations that have not only come to fruition, but are becoming increasingly hard to miss even for those trying. Here’s an example. To wit:
From the article: “The Shot Heard Round The Valley World”
Come this October the Federal Reserve will make its final tranche of QE available. The amount assumed by many is that it will be 50% larger than what we’ve seen over these last years. ($15 Billion as opposed to $10)
One may see an increased flurry of buying into anything and everything that has even the slightest possibility of making a profit. Or, what Wall Street cares about even more; a growth story that can be perpetuated via financial engineering that sticks during earnings seasons.
But, one shouldn’t read into this as “confirmation” the risk appetite story is not only alive but growing. For that is all about to change.
Once the Fed shuts down the section of QE that has been pumping Billions upon Billions of dollars every month – it’s over for a great many of today’s Wall Street darlings.
The above, at that time, was seen as not only blasphemy, but was met with screams, howls, gnashing of teeth, and more. And that’s just from the business/financial media. When it came to next-in-rotation fund-managers or VC’s? Let’s just say, I’ll keep that dialogue from the view of polite minded eyes.
So why is the above relevant today one might ask? Fair point, and it is this…
Just as this was seen as the first “shot” in the war across the entire “It’s different this time” defensive mindset. It seems that the end to this foolish war against any-and-all fundamental business reasoning (as in making a net profit, for one) may be drawing closer to a close. What do I have to offer as evidence one might ask? Good question, and it is this, again, to wit:
From Vanity Fair™: “HAS THE SILICON VALLEY HYPE CYCLE RUN ITS COURSE?”
“The social media boom, powered by the growth of mobile computing, is over. And while a glittering new technological age of artificial intelligence beckons, the current cycle seems bloated and fatigued. It’s no wonder venture capitalists are looking elsewhere.”
All I’ll say is this: Much like when Pres. Johnson was claimed after watching Walter Cronkite deliver a thought provoking editorial against the mindset for continuing the Vietnam debacle, where he supposedly lamented, saying, “If I’ve lost Cronkite…” signaling he had lost support. In keeping with that theme, because I believe it fits…
If Silicon Valley has lost Vanity Fair?
And if you don’t think being on magazine covers, or having glossy photo shoots of Silicon Valley “stars” was important to those seemingly more addicted to fame than their business models, may I remind you here, here, and here.
© 2017 Mark St.Cyr
Footnote: These “FTWSIJDGIGT” articles came into being when many of the topics I had opined on over the years were being openly criticized for “having no clue”. Yet, over the years these insights came back around showing maybe I knew a little bit more than some were giving me credit for. It was my way of tongue-in-cheek as to not use the old “I told you so” analogy. I’m saying this purely for the benefit of those who may be new or reading here for the first time (and there are a great many of you and thank you too all). I never wanted or want to seem like I’m doing the “Nah, nah, nah, nah, nah” type of response to my detractors. I’d rather let the chips fall – good or bad – and let readers decide the credibility of either side. Occasionally however, there are, and have been times they do need to be pointed out which is why these now have taken on a life of their own. (i.e., something of significance per se that may have a direct impact on one’s business etc., etc.) And readers, colleagues, and others have requested their continuance.