Day: January 31, 2017

From: You Can’t Make This Stuff Up – Into – Maybe They Actually Do

If one has ever perused most “business” or “investing” centered programs (cough,CNBC™,cough) and wondered why their bulls–t meter keeps going from zero to 11? This is your moment for clarity, provided by none other than one of the leading “investment” commentators paraded across the financial media of television, radio, and print: Dennis Gartman.

Personally, I have no qualms to pick with Mr. Gartman. The only thing I take issue with is: both he, and his insights are trotted out on these programs and given the aura of “thoughtful, actionable, expertise.”

Over the years it has shown to many an observer with a modicum of business acumen, as well as financial insight (heaven forbid your account balances) that “zip, zero, nada” should accompany those three prior descriptors. It’s now become so obvious (and laughable) he’s even had to publicly defend himself against his own record.

Now I am fully aware, as well as sympathetic to making calls, or going out-on-a-limb to voice, or give credence, to thoughts which turn out to be not just wrong, but dead wrong. Trust me, I’ve made enough of them myself.

However, with that said, what I will do different from most others is tell you my reasoning for it, then let the chips fall where they may. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. Nobody is right all the time in business, let alone investing. (And just to be clear, I am in no way, shape, manner, or form, an investment advisor.) It comes with the territory and there are times you just have to “man-up” and say so. Period, end of story, move on.

People are smart enough to know what’s “what.” And one should never think they aren’t. Which is precisely why I wanted to share my thoughts on this because, by all appearances, Mr. Gartman thinks people are the latter, rather than the former. i.e., Must assume people are morons.

In another stunning reversal of “investment” advice Mr. Gartman went from, “Our propensity is to find modest long exposure today” on Monday morning into “No longer bullish after seeing…” Monday evening. You know, after people who might have taken his lead and thought they were “buying in” just like the “pros.” Only to see the largest decline of 2017 happen simultaneously and we’re left in a pool of tears, once again.

So, what did he see? Were they some form of proprietary technical indicators, charting patterns, insider trading report, or some form of other proprietary insight? Hint: Nope.

It appears (by his own words) he saw only too late what every person in the world with a computer, and a desire to find information on their own saw days before (because it was already viral on the web all weekend). e.g., The now infamous “omen of financial doom” cover story when none other than Barron’s™ (once again) insinuatingly proclaims “away we go once again!” with their cover page headline “Next Stop Dow 30,000”

The reason Mr. Gartman gave? He didn’t get the magazine delivered until Monday, when everyone else received it on Saturday.

Imagine that, who could have ever assumed one “edge” to competing with today’s multi-$Billion, HFT, light-speed data-flow world of connectivity was – a faster postman! (never forgetting it was accessible via the web Saturday, and Sunday)

And that my friends is why “investment gurus” like the aforementioned Mr. Gartman make the big bucks (selling this trite in newsletters) and are called on television shows, radio, and more to give their prognostications.

I guess, after all, an excuse like the one given is: daring, bold, and far more clever than “The dog ate my homework” excuse any poor, (presumably much poorer) ignorant 401K holder could ever hope to come up with. You just can’t make this stuff up. Unless you’re them I suppose, then, not only do you make it up – you charge mightily for it!

Is it any wonder why these networks are losing viewers as quickly as the people following the advice from many of these so-called “experts?”

Other than that, I have no strong feelings, or opinions on the matter.

© 2017 Mark St.Cyr