Day: November 1, 2016

Adventures In Stupidity: Business Assumptions

Every once in a while I come across something that just leaves me slack-jawed when it comes to business. Whether it be the reasons pertaining to their sales, or lack of them, casual assumptions as to determine causality vs correlation, right down to hiring what they know to be the wrong person because “they need” to fill a position, or what at times can even be worse: promoting the absolute wrong people, for a critical position based solely on seniority. I could go on – but I don’t believe there’s enough digital ink to finish.

As many of you longtime readers know I post these for the simple purpose as to demonstrate: when it comes to “competing” in the business world, many of you are running around like headless chickens trying to do 10,000 things (or should I say please 10,000 tire kickers?) than pleasing the 1 or ______(fill in the blank) customers that have actually purchased your product or services with the best that you can deliver.

Most of these over the years have been either done too me, or witnessed by me. They are so egregious I use them as real-time exercises in any lecture I might be presenting at the time. Everyone in a room whether it be 1 or hundreds shakes their heads in disbelief.

That shaking suddenly stops and turns into startled gazes when usually I’ll follow with “And many of you in this room are guilty of doing the exact same thing, and you don’t even realize it. And I can prove it without naming or singling out anyone specific.” Then I ask if they want me to proceed which is always in the affirmative. (as long as the names remain hidden that is)

To add too this repertoire of examples I have what can only be one of the most classic “There in the business of predictions (or odds) – and yet – appear not to even understand how the most fundamental business principle of their entire business model even works!” This is stuff you just can’t make up.

So with the afore said I bring to you today’s example (and quite likely one of its top 3 ever!) of “Adventures In Stupidity”

On October 18, 2016 the following blundering business decision was:

Paddy Power Pays Out On Hillary Clinton Victory Bets

Regardless whether or not the initial action proves out correct, one thing can not be denied: An odds maker paid out bets before they needed to when there was even the remotest chance that something could effect that decision. Again: You can’t make this stuff up.

You know why there’s such a thing a 10,000,000,000 or 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,00 to 1 odds?

Because sometimes, as remote as they can be – that 1 happens. Remember; everyone argued for near centuries against the possibility, or the very existence of a black swan – till one day there one was.

But not too worry, the central bankers of the world are convinced there’s no chance of anything happening that they can’t deal with effectively and efficiently. They don’t use odds to calculate their chances – they use Princeton math.

Feel better? I bet it doesn’t.

© 2016 Mark St.Cyr