F.T.W.S.I.J.D.G.I.G.T.

(For those who say I just don’t get it…get this!)

Over the years I’ve made arguments that Twitter™ was a “canary in the coal mine” for not only everything social, but also “the Valley” in general, for this I have also been publicly taken to task by so many it’s been hard to keep track, the most funny too me in retrospect, is one that actually took place on Twitter!

That public twit-storm was in response to my daring to publicly make the case that a CEO, no matter who, running 2 companies simultaneously was folly at best, and delusional at worse. But hey – who was I to question for remember: “it’s different this time.”

So, with that said, as many of you know, I’ve also made the argument that IPO’s and all that they entail (i.e., unicorn and rainbow dreams) since the ending of QE was also over. That claim (once again) landed me among the “Doesn’t have a clue” or, “Just doesn’t get it” assaults with many (once again) in either the “Silicon Valley” aficionado set, or the main stream business/financial media. With the major point (as well as example) as to dispel anything I have said previous, while supposedly giving credence as to why the IPO market was not only back, but why it was going to be back “better than before!” Rested on the shoulders of 2016’s version of another I dubbed another  “canary in a coal mine” debut: Twilio™.

So how’s that all working out? Especially with the “markets” still hovering at never before seen in human history highs? Well, as they like to say in “The Valley;” let’s look at some pictures, shall we? To wit:

2016-10-20-tos_charts-2

On the Left is Twitter – To its right is Twilio, both are from their IPO debut to approximately the same time following. Notice anything similar?

I’ll just make this one statement, especially if you were one of those “lucky” enough to “get in while the getting was good.” Does “it’s different this time” bring on any solace or feelings of “crushing it?” Or. should I rephrase that with: feelings of “getting crushed” feel more appropriate?

So what else has transpired as of late that might help frame these “pictures” for a better perspective, especially since there’s been suitable time for the “genius” that was to have a part-time CEO. That – and QE no longer there for “the wind beneath their wings?” Once again, to wit:

Twitter as of 10/20/16 before the close of the day.

Twitter as of 10/20/16 before the close of the day.

Maybe, you might be wondering, “What caused that last drop?” Especially if you were one of the one’s that believed “This thing is going to be sold, and I’m going to get another chance to “crush it!” Only to find out – as I stated in a previous article – once the public “thanks, but no thanks” becomes public? You’re more likely to get crushed. Hence, welcome back to “You are here” way down there. i.e., welcome to the reality of “Price Reduced!”

Now let’s move on to another topic where I also (it’s a recurring theme, but it comes with the territory) made an observation when it comes to falling ratings in both ESPN™, and as of late: the NFL™.

Everyone (and I do mean everyone) has put the reason on “cutting the cord” or “de-bundling” or what ever term you want to use as a reason for the falling ratings. I argued (and surprise, surprise, basically alone) I believed something else was going on. And in particular I pointed to the insertion of politics into the game, as well as broadcasting, was more than likely the true reason for the falling ratings. Once again, my assertions were met with “doesn’t have a clue” type responses. Fair enough, but there seems to be a problem with that defense….

In a survey of over 1000 identified NFL fans: 29% claimed they were watching fewer games. The number 1 reason why? The political protesting.

But, as they like to say in the media – “What do I know.”

© 2016 Mark St.Cyr

(The FTWSIJDGIGT section came into being when things I was being criticized for “having no clue” over the years, came back around showing maybe I knew a little bit more than some were giving me credit for. It was my way of a tongue-in-cheek as to not use the old “I told you so” analogy. I only say this for the benefit of those who may be new or reading here for the first time (and there are a great many of you and thank you too all.) I never wanted to seem like I was doing the “Nah, nah, nah, nah, nah” type of response to my detractors. I’d rather let the chips fall, good or bad – and let you, the readers, decide the credibility of either side. However, occasionally, there are times they do need to be pointed out. i.e., something of significance per se that may have a direct impact on one’s business or thought processes, etc., etc, hence these posts.)