(For those who say I just don’t get it…get this!)
Many times I’ve tried to express why I feel it’s important to be at “the tip of the spear” as opposed to the “cutting edge.” Yes, it’s only a metaphor however, it is a distinction with a difference.
If you’re the “tip” how you view along with how you perceive movements whether it be for business, life, or any other subject matter means: you have to take your cues from what you perceive as a valuable insight. And many times you’ll find it’s you, and you alone.
However, as of this writing, just a few points I’ve made over the last few months are beginning to show there is a dramatic change along with financial tremors in what many perceived as “contained contagion” rearing its head.
Today’s announcement from the Swiss National Bank to “un-peg” the Swiss Franc from the Euro is not just a “change” in policy that will reverberate throughout the financial markets. It’s a change that will have “reverberations” felt markets wide, globally, with aftershocks currently unpredictable in size and magnitude.
As I’ve said before, “Watch the Forex markets for you first clues” and here we have more than a clue.
Here’s a few quotes from a few articles I’ve penned over just the last few months. Even as recently as yesterday I was more or less regarded as a “Chicken Little.” Although I’ve always argued against such an insinuation, what I will say is many that called me a “Chicken” are now finding out is was them that had more in common with a bird – with their heads in the sand.
From Dec. 28, 2014 “From Land Of Opportunity To…..”
“Interest rate cutting and more money printing won’t help next time. You’ll need far more tools than just a printing press, for the rest of the world is not going to bear that burden any further. The currency markets won’t allow it.”
From Sept. 16, 2014 “This week 4C’s That Could Change The Financial…..”
“Just how does the Federal Reserve handle such a dilemma of this scale? I use the word “scale” for good reason. As many may know the Forex markets dwarf what the lovingly referred to as “mom and pop investor” believe it to be.
The saving of the “stock market” (aka the Equity Markets) in 2008 vs a Forex market crisis is the equivalent of bailing out a local bingo hall as compared to dealing with such a crisis on the scale of Las Vegas casino.
If the Forex market suddenly gets rocked with a clear fundamental breakdown and breakup of everything now known as the E.U. Along with all the tentacle entangled carry trades? Crisis might be an understatement.
Contagion across the Forex exchanges will not only wreak havoc from within it will also spread directly to the Bond markets. (which many don’t realize is also considerably larger themselves than the equity markets)
Such sweeping turmoil will most assuredly plunge the equity markets themselves into complete and utter chaos as money managers, market makers, margin executives and more decree: “Sell Everything, Close Everything, Now!”
Today all bets are off on exactly what a Central Bank anywhere will both do, as well as have the ability to underpin. (Yes, I believe the Swiss National Bank story is that big for it changes everything.)
From Dec. 6, 2014 “We Forget All Too Fast Just How…..”
“Currently as oil prices plummet the outcry over whether it’s an immediate “tax break” to consumers is also flaring up with just as much furor. The “they’ll spend it during the holidays” vs “they’ll use it to pay down debt” is just as fiery as well as debatable.
Again, no one truly knows until after the fact, and we’ll see it in the numbers. Yet, just like the scenario above, what one doesn’t need to wait for is the fact that maybe – just maybe – we have a card in our back-pocket for once that we can use within our price tolerances where we aren’t held for ransom or extortionist prices on a whim by others.
However, when I made the claim earlier about a two-sided coin as well as a double-edged sword it was truly intentional as the example. For if there is one outcome based on a two-sided coin, as one side wins while the other means losing. The ability to be cut with both sides of the same blade one should infer, one way or another – you’re going to get cut. It’s just a degree of how bad that needs to be calculated and guarded against.
What we don’t know or can’t see in as far as “what’s there under the sands” we can more than make up for in true clarity what’s on the financial books. i.e., The high yield bonds funding it all.”
As of today, High Yield Credit is flashing warning signs so much so that some already can not rollover debt on equitable terms. Rig Counts are falling at a dramatic pace, as well as layoffs.
From Nov. 30, 2014 “The Increasing Cracks In The Silicon Valley…..”
“Remember my assertions – It’s not about making a profit in business, it’s now only about the business in making an “investment” profit. As I’ve reiterated repeatedly, the business per se is irrelevant – it’s all about can the business “story” be sold to Wall Street. Then who gives a rats arse how the story ends, that’s for the poor saps that bought into it, not us. We cha-chinged out!
Increasingly the proverbial “cha-ching” machine is growing more silent. One would think with the markets once again pushing beyond stratospheric levels into black sky territory that the deals would just keep coming. Well, they are yet again there seems to be something a little different in the ways these deals are coming forward than previous.
To the casual observer one might think “they’re doing more deals than ever before!” Yet, what may seem as an uptick might be more of an illusion. More in a shorter time span doesn’t necessarily mean “more.” What it could be signalling is a rush to get as many in as soon as possible because there just might be “no moar.”
Now you have some eye widening confirmation as reported by Medium.com “The Era of Angels is Closing”
From Nov. 20, 2014 “Why Tony Robbins Is Asking The Wrong…..”
“The real issue at hand from my point of view is this: Looking for answers to both financial safety as well as financial freedom in the same light or viewpoint where it seems one only needs to “think like a billionaire” or “tweak” or “slightly modify” perceptions on how one approaches these financial markets today – will hurt more than it will help.
The markets for all intents and purposes are no longer for the “average” person looking to make gains in any form today. What is needed now more than ever is a direct understanding that safety – safety above all else – is paramount. And exactly how one can achieve it. Or get as close to the proverbial “cash in the mattress” understanding of it as humanly possible.
The idea of “diversification” is a great sounding idea in principle and theory. However, it is one of the greatest myths when it comes to protecting one’s assets in today’s financial market place aka Wall Street.”
As of this writing the changes that just took place within the Forex markets may be far more systemic and fundamentally changing to the equity markets as they stand today. So much so that “thinking like a billionaire” is going to be more like putting one’s head in their hands and just hoping and praying things work out alright.
And that’s no way to invest, run a business, or move through life.
© 2015 Mark St.Cyr