I was just sent a quick note from a friend who wanted to know if my thoughts on the whole “social media” thing had changed. He used the point that Facebook™ today had just hit a new high insinuating “I must not be as ‘informed’ on the whole social media ‘thing’ as I think.”
I thought I’d share my response since we’re in the holiday wind down mode:
Yes, Facebook over the last week or so has been on a tear. But I’ll ask you, (never mind asking me) why? What is it that you have seen, or heard something that changed all the concern after their last earnings report sell off? I won’t wait for your response, for I know the answer – no, there’s been nothing.
What you’re watching in my opinion is nothing more than money needing to be invested before year-end trying desperately to find a home (any home) that has even the slightest prayer of possible growth before next earnings season.
With all the turmoil also happening within the currency markets moves like these happen out of nowhere and get fueled by light markets and more. There’s a lot more to it, but mostly what I’m trying to express is what you’re seeing currently is ephemeral. That goes for this whole melt up as of the last few weeks also. But since this was brought up let me ask you something…
What happened to Twitter™? Remember that social media darling that was “the” social media darling of darlings? If you remember I was basically lambasted both publicly and privately for my saying that this would be the “canary in the coal mine” to watch for trouble. And I believed there was to be trouble and I was called a “Chicken Little.” I was called worse (more like stupid – no clue – should I go on?) when they also hit record highs more than once. Where are they now?
That’s right: if you invested in Twitter at any time, chances are you’ve not only lost money – but maybe a lot of money. Twitter today has only stopped its bloodletting of investment value over the last few weeks for one reason and one reason only: The possibility some other company might now find it useful and buy it such as a Google™, or an Apple™.
Don’t take my word for it here’s a quote I saved for an article I was going to write later from a prominent investment short seller Doug Kass. “This past week, Kass wrote that he’s buying Twitter on a decline in shares that makes the company a more attractive takeover candidate.”
If I remember correctly, the only person publicly making that argument theorizing something such as this would more than likely happen in the coming future over a year ago (before they even IPO’d) was yours truly. I know this for as I know you remember – it’s one of the reasons I got even more flack than I was getting about my stance on the whole genre at the time.
Remember, no need to take my word for it. It’s all in my archives. I’d put a link but I think it would be better if you looked yourself. No need to say it again if you didn’t believe me the first time.
Because as far as my thinking on the whole social media thing goes – nothing has changed.
The issue is most of social media (as well as Silicon Valley) hasn’t realized that as far as “the world of social” as they knew or though it to be – is about to change. And I mean change in ways so diametrically opposed to how they are looked at today that the word “disruptive” may no longer going forward be a word embraced as it is today.
Other than that, I have no strong feelings on the matter.
© 2014 Mark St.Cyr