Some things just demand you pay attention to them. Doesn’t matter if you’re right or wrong. It’s when things go unnoticed that there could be warning signs that will get most into trouble. People focus primarily on whether they’re right or wrong. Important of course, however noticing something when everyone else may be oblivious to it can be a determining factor in one’s success in the future. Preparing or interpreting when, where, or if a decision may need to be made I will contend is on par with making the decision on how to act if needed. It’s on this note once again I am compelled to make a few observations that are screaming to me warnings of caution. Understand I am not saying I’m right or wrong in my assumptions, but as stated before, it’s knowing when to pay attention when no one else is that can set you apart from the herd. Which in turn is why people seek me out. So here’s a short list with a few caveats for you to ponder.
- Apple® is adding $10’s of Billions of dollars in market capitalization weekly and at a rate that is unseen in the history of the markets.
I am an everything Apple consumer at this time. I have shed everything PC over the last 2 years. I think Apple and their products are the best at this moment in time. But the stock price and the performance or future performance of the company seems to be a little too far ahead of itself. There are so many people investing in shares of Apple because of the assumptions it will continue to go up forever is scary. If Apple has just a hiccup in its performance the reaction in the price could be not just significant, but could be down right devastating to many whom just don’t understand markets.
- Facebook® is buying a company named Instagram® for $1 Billion dollars.
I have heard nothing but praise on how smart this acquisition is from the so-called “smart crowd” of the financial channels et al. I have only one thing to say. “They have yet to turn a profit meaning they make NO money, and the claim to fame is you can make your pictures look like it was taken on a Kodak® camera?” I haven’t seen this type spending of other people’s money (share holders) under the umbrella of prudent since the last time the government released a budget. Keep in mind Facebook itself has yet to release its own IPO for the market to digest. They say it will make them a $100 Billion dollar company. Seems to me spending money before the checks have been cashed is a little foolish, but I guess that’s old-fashioned these days.
- For the 2719’th time. We once again are warned that the 4662’nd deal to save the EU was never really a deal, and once again fears of catastrophe are back on the table. Greece is worse than it was before, Italy, and Portugal are not any better since everyone was told last time they were. And now the country they said there was nothing to worry about since all the others had been spared (which of course by self evidence shows that was a lie) Spain had what some called a “disastrous and troubling” bond auction.
At what point does one not understand that all the deals that have been touted across the newswires, televisions, and such have been a little bit more than disingenuous? If things were fixed, then why do we have a crisis that threatens the entire Euro zone near daily? When I speak with someone and I hear them say something to the tune of, “Well that’s off the table now they resolved that.” I just end the conversation politely and move on because the only thing resolved is their interpretations based on the talking heads not substance.
As I stated earlier who knows what will happen next. But being aware and watching signals that others are either unaware of, or have no inkling there might even be signals is what sets the average from the top performers apart.
I’ll leave you with this. Remember a little while back I wrote about a few companies that everyone (maybe even yourself) said, “I think you just don’t get it because it’s different this time.” Below is Groupon®. The company that snubbed its nose at Google® when they were offered $6 Billion dollars to buy them. They said no rather smugly. Well let the record show you can now purchase Groupon stock at a 50% discount than when it was first offered. A little poetic don’t you think?
Sometimes the more things change, the more things stay the same. Being a Chicken Little is just dumb, but watching Canaries in the coal mines could quite possibly save your life. Just keep your eyes, ears, and minds open.
© 2012 Mark St.Cyr