Fundamentals vs It’s Different This Time

As we wake on this Monday morning there seems to be a growing fervor from finger pointers everywhere. If you watch the financial channels, or other news outlets all you’ll see are the so-called “smart crowd” explaining why this matters, that doesn’t, and vice versa. It’s truly pathetic in my opinion.

As many of you know from listening to either my talks, or reading my articles I have been what has seemed to be a lone voice on why listening to these “wizards of smart” will be detrimental to not only your wallet, but too your sanity as well.

Over the last 18 months I have written many times why people needed to be cautious. Why people needed to understand that correlation, and causation are not synonymous. Almost to a person would a conversation (which usually turned combative on their part) about either financial markets, or business be defended by the other party with some statement of finality to shut me down, and to end the conversation e.g.: “Well, it’s different this time.” followed by.. “Just look at the market today. It’s higher right? So obviously you’re wrong.” I’m wondering how confident they feel about their argument today.

As of this writing every single person whom expressed just how much smarter they were than everyone else because they understood the great wizardry expressed by the so-called  “smart crowd”, and their merry band in the “wizards of smart club” are now proven absolutely wrong. Any, and all gains just in the financial markets since the now infamous “Flash Crash” have been wiped out. All the gains from the coveted arguments of why QE2 was a reason I knew nothing, and didn’t “get it” are wiped out. All the reasons, and rationals they put into why things are different this time over the last 18 months have been wiped away clean with fundamentals in just 10 days. Funny how that works isn’t it?

All my reasons, and arguments on why I believed this was a more than likely outcome are documented in my articles. I don’t need nor have to try to say “Hey..I said that!” It’s all here, documented, and with dates so at least for me I needn’t have to use the statement that’s almost as dreaded as the “It’s different” argument.

What statement is that you ask?

“I told you this could happen!”

Mark

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