Spinning tops are the mindless time wasters of old. All you do is give one a spin and whammo, instant mindless distraction. But you had better pay attention when tops in markets are being spun so fast in the verbal realm of the “smart crowd,” that even the toys themselves get jealous.
As some of you know I’ve said more than once I feel this whole stock market move over the last few years has been suspect. Although I’m absolutely comfortable in being proved wrong of late. It’s a cross I gladly bear. Yes I don’t mind being wrong, but I’m not wrong in how I came to my conclusions. I’m being proved wrong possibly in my timing, but my reasons why are still in play and have yet to be erased to the point of irrelevancy. How I came to my decisions, and why I wont turn my back on such conclusions is where I differ from most. (Some are utterly gleeful if they can point and say, see…see!) It’s too long to go into here, but it’s all in the archives on where I stand. I wont run and hide. But happily being proved wrong in this case means side stepping the possible chaos for markets, business, wealth, and so on. Trust me, I don’t want to be right. I live here too!
Imagine yourself trying to explain to someone why they shouldn’t step onto a frozen lake because you believe the ice is far to thin. Everyone you warn says “C’mon your wrong. Nothings happened. We do this all the time.” But you’ve been watching the thermometer. the glare from the sun, the way it hasn’t frozen all the way to the edge, and more. But, as long as no one has fallen through, even though everyone hears the cracking underfoot, you’re wrong! So I ask, do you want to be proven right?
Today the market feels like its hitting its head against a top. Who knows. Maybe we race to Dow 15 thousand, 20 thousand, a million, who knows. However when I start hearing financial guru’s and alike lining up on television to spout why no one should worry about oil prices, bond markets, inflation, and more because, (hold on to your seat!) “This time, it’s different!” I begin looking for the fall out shelters. Call me crazy, but it sends a chill up my spine. It’s the same wonderful insights they all gave right before oil went to $147.00 a barrel. They said don’t worry then also. Dow was around 15 thousand or so back then. Remember how that all worked out?
Maybe I better bring a yo-yo, and a top to the basement if they’re saying don’t worry, be happy again. But that’s just me I guess.
© 2011 Mark St.Cyr All Rights Reserved