“They’re on TV, So They Must be Smart” update

As some of you know, I am constantly amazed on what I see on television in regards to “informative information.” One host after another quotes this resource, or refers to this expert. It’s enough to make ones head spin! What’s even more of an experiment in dizziness survival training, is listening to how many people use this information as if it were handed down from the gods above. Holy Moly!

As I watch the Dow Jones and other benchmark industries once again nearing new yearly highs, I get one person after another telling me…”See…see, the markets getting better. You were obviously wrong in any assumptions of reversals of fortune. What do you have to say now?..Hmmmmmmm!

I let about 15 seconds pass after they finish so that they can regain their composure, ( From either down right giddiness, or just plain antagonism.) and state the following…

It’s possible I’m wrong in any forecast I might make. When you want to be taken seriously, you have to be willing to be wrong at times, but be willing to look at why you forecast what you did, and would you stand by those decisions knowing what you know now. The answer to that question is still yes. ( This is where they start to become indignant, and try to talk over me.) I continue on to say, Just because an event is taking place, doesn’t mean it’s taking place for the reasons one might think. In the world of correlations and you can quote me on this ” All correlations work, until they don’t.”

If  the talking heads on television really understood the correlations they tout, wouldn’t they have to rescind those same correlations that you and others were using as ammo against someone like myself? If anyone cares to remember, just a few months ago when the market was rising, these same wizards were touting that a weak US dollar, cheap oil, low bond yields, and a pro growth China were the keys to economic recovery, so who was I to draw concern. However today with the stock market rising the same ones are touting, strong US dollar, high oil prices, high bond yields, and China pulling back its stimulus programs are what’s saving the day.

All I can say is who knows. But what I do know is this. If you take your cues from television and the talking heads who spouse correlations without understanding televisions agenda to get your eyeballs to look at the screen regardless on how that happens,( the financial channels have lost 20% and more of viewership since the 2007 highs and never regained it.)  you now should have a better understanding why your stomach is getting that queezy feeling, rather than a feeling of confidence. Just let me finish with this I said, If I remember correctly, I was one of the only people on the planet stating when the US dollar was heading into the toilet that I felt not only was the dollar going to rebound, but I believed the Euro was not going to be the new reserve currency as others were toting, also I believed the EU could fall apart because of structural deficiencies that I could see, but no one wanted to report. So far, I’m 50% correct on my forecasts, and the other 50% could still be proven accurate. To my math, that’s better than the television experts, and they’re on TV, so they must be smart, right?

Here, have some Maalox (R) and a seat, It’ll soon pass. Next question Please!

Mark