When Reality Bites…..It Bites Hard!

Excerpt from my article July 14, 2009 “They’re on TV so they must be smart”

You know what the difference is between an Economist/Analyst…and a Businessman………When a Businessman makes a prediction on his business and predicts wrong……The business could wind up in Bankruptcy……..When the Economist/Analyst makes a wrong prediction…..They just make another prediction.

When you’re in a place such as I, that people actually pay you for advice or insights, you inevitably have to deal with the so-called “Smart Crowd” These are the people who try to disprove everything you say based on what I call psycho dribble. This is not to say that I am always right. It’s not to say I don’t make mistakes. Trust me, I’ve made more blunders than most and have paid dearly for them both financially, and personally. With that being said it’s also the basis for some of my insights or forecasts. The difference between myself and  others is that I learned from my mistakes. I understood that the best made plans no matter how well thought out, can still go awry. The so-called “Intelligentsia” crowd doesn’t. They are the ones who argue the  pie in the sky forecasts of others, have no original thought on positions,  and they just take their cues from what they see in the newspaper and on TV. Only to regurgitate it as if it was all based on their own life experiences. Conversations ( that usually turn antagonistic, but not by me) with this type usually start like this……..

“Well Mark, did you ever add into your hypothesis that Mr. So and So on TV said that we could experience a blah, blah , blah…and he’s considered one of the smartest people on such matters?”

To which I respond….” why is Mr. So and So regarded as an oracle in your estimation. It is my understanding that he has “Never” worked outside academia, and until recently has just started making guest appearances on the  financial news shows. I ‘ve listened to his views, but they all come from theoretical positions on business , not real business acumen.

It could be funny if it weren’t sad. What usually happens next is now equal to a steel cage death match by the other party trying to defend the status of their oracle, not the wisdom of following their advice.

Back in August of last year (2009) I wrote 2 other articles. Below are 2 excerpts…….

“Party like it’s 1999″……August 6, 2009

“Some  commentators on the financial talk shows have now declared ” We have entered a New Bull Market!”. I heard one state… “Dow 15000 here we come!” and on, and on. So now you’re asking, but didn’t I see on the cover of a national magazine that they declared the recession over?….Yes you did!…and that’s why I feel the worst is yet to come.”

“On the Record for the Record”….August 23, 2009

“But once again…The experts all touted…” A sure sign you’re in a new Bull Market is when it can shake off bad news.”…..I say…Oh Really?…I heard others stating…” Well the stock market is a forward-looking indicator”….again I say ” Oh Really?’….When the market was falling at a rate not seen since the Great Depression, what was it predicting then Hmmmmmm? I guess I’m suppose to not believe the account statements, and 401k statements my friends were howling about because…The market didn’t understand then…It’s sorry now, and wants to make amends….I say Rubbish!”

Back then a lot of people couldn’t wait to show how wrong I was, and how their so-called “oracles” really understood the big picture. If you go back and read my articles, I think one can say my views have demonstrated a more reality based hypothesis than the opinions relayed on TV, or other “Financial News” articles.

As of  today being February 13, 2010. The stock market has nearly wiped out all the financial gains since August 2009 ( Dow fell below and closed under 10, 000 during the week. 10 trading days to obliterate 5 months of profit or gains) and I believe poised for a further decline that will leave all the so-called “Smart Crowd” scratching their heads wondering why this took place. Or a better metaphor might be “scratching their chin”. I heard you do that if you want to look serious, or look like an intellectual. I’m just saying.

For me, I would rather deal with reality, leave the chin scratching for the classroom. Besides, reality is where the classroom gets the funding to theorize. Without solvency, there is no time to ponder what ifs.

Mark