What if the “Green Shoots” are Poison Ivy?

We hear over and over again from commentators on TV, Radio, and alike that there are signs of “Green Shoots” all over the economic landscape. You hear them quoting this statistic and that statistic. You hear them compare this with that, and so on and so forth, blah blah blah.

I’ve been speaking and writing for a while that the so called” Economic facts and figures ” can not be looked at with the same reverence or the same indicator weight that they once seemed to infer. One example that I’ll sight is the recent jobless claims. I listened to so many so called “Experts” rally around any microphone or TV camera they could find to start yelling….”This is a sign we’re heading in the right direction….Jobless claims are a lagging indicator so this shows the recession is beginning to fade”….an far too may other such nonsensical gibberish that left me shaking my head.

I’m not saying I’m smarter than the people who claim to be “Experts” But…. I am saying to just listen to their analysis of the data, and not look for ways or means other than theirs to substantiate or to contradict so you can weigh the validity of either and make an informed decision is not only foolish….It’s Stupid!

The continuing claims for the jobless numbers is watched very carefully by those who want to keep a pulse on what’s happening in the economy. However, the people who are informed and have their OWN MONEY in the game, and base their livelihoods on their decisions understand, “The drop in numbers might not be people Retuning to Work…but Worse…They are now No Longer able to collect Unemployment because their benefits have RUN OUT.” If that is the case, then things are not getting better, they might be getting much worse.

I can’t say that I’m correct in my assumptions ( But I feel I am closer to what is actually going on than most others.) but at least I have looked at both sides, and will base my decisions on what I believe is truer to the situation at hand. I will not walk blindly into a patch of “Green Shoots” just because they’re green, when it could be a patch of poison ivy. I’ve had a similar thing happen once before.

I grew up in the inner city as a kid, we regarded plastic grocery bags blowing down the street as ” urban tumbleweeds”. Three tenements houses was where we lived, so when I bought my first house, I bought a house in the country on a couple of acres with a forest as my back yard. One day after clearing branches from my yard, I had a bad rash on my forearms but didn’t know why. After going to the doctor, I was informed I had poison ivy. I never had it before, and I didn’t know where I could have gotten it from since I didn’t even know what it looked like. So I looked up what poison ivy is, and what it looked like. Low and behold all those pretty green vines and white lace flowers growing all over my trees and stone walls….Yup!..all poison ivy. I had never known how to spot them before, but now with my new found understanding my eyes were wide open, and could not look at all green shoots the same way again.

It’s kind of like the way one should look at economic data….. Is the way it’s being presented making you feel a little itchy?

Mark