I wanted to take a moment and do what is known as “touching base” in relation to both the website, as well as the broadcast.
Last week I put out a “Special Report” that’s available to subscribers of MYTR to try and bring into the current light where my thought processes, as well as challenges, were.
Originally (when we began the hiatus) I had thought we’d be back up and running by the first of February. However, as I described on that edition, I’ve encountered more than a few snags, which gave me reason to pause. Both figuratively and literally.
(Note: any “Charter Members” that found they couldn’t access, please go here and you’re all set.)
Since then I’ve had more than a few inquiries from followers and others asking, “Are you ever coming back?” The short answer to that is: absolutely. However, how and when is a little more nuanced than I can both write or speak, along with just how much “sausage making” you, dear reader, should endure.
So, with that said, let me just check-off a few details so everyone, both followers (i.e., email/blog) and subscribers (e.g., MYTR) are up to speed.
My original concept of where the website and broadcast were going to focus has changed. Not because of me, but rather, what COVID and the current responses to it are driving.
I had very high hopes, much like others, that the incoming administration would effectively hasten the return to some semblance of normal in regards to opening up the economic engine known as: small business. We have all seen via executive orders and other governmental edicts that is not the case.
To be clear: this isn’t a political statement, this is a – It is, what it is – reality based fact. Let me give you an example…
Here in the state of Ohio we have a republican governor announcing when or if a curfew is going to be lifted, scaled back, or some other draconian version of scaling up. It’s all done by edict, at any time, if “the numbers” say so.
I’m sorry – but you can’t run a business on a floating time schedule for Open or Closed, daily. It just doesn’t work. And restaurants, bars, stores and more are closing (some permanently) at a rapid pace.
Then there’s the government of California that with about six days to go before the “Big game” again, via edict, stated that restaurants/bars could be open for inside dining, although at a diminished capacity. But! (and it’s a very big but) Would not be allowed to turn on their televisions so patrons could watch the game.
If you know the restaurant business, as I do, you’d know instinctively that most, if not all, of the bars and restaurants that took the chance at being open purchased all their food and accoutrements just days prior to that announcement, meaning: It was surely the last gasp of what few resources they had of possibly making any money to pay rent, staff or even stay afloat. Or, said differently: they bought and prepared for a party of football fans – and all that showed up were the inspectors concerned with noting if the TVs were on or off.
You can’t run traditional businesses under these circumstances. Period.
Small business proponent agencies such as the NFIB™ (Nation Federation of Independent Business) and others seem to be screaming at the sky (i.e., no one seems to care what they’re saying) as the alarming notion that another (read: additional) 9,000,000 small businesses are slated to close in 2021 via survey responses. And that was before the ever evolving list of executive orders closing major initiatives (e.g., Keystone pipeline) while boosting labor costs (e.g., $15hr. min. wage) and more. Much more. (e.g. yet to come.) Here’s the latest…
Acording to the latest reporting top Democrat legislators (e.g, Ms. Pelosi, Mr. Schumer) just reintroduced as co-sponsors what is known as “The PRO act.” Here’s what that implies. To wit:
The PRO Act would outlaw millions of existing jobs with the stroke of the president’s pen.
After all, it would make illegal any independent contractor arrangement where the worker provides services within “the usual course of the business of the employer,” meaning jobs like Uber drivers, Doordash drivers, Instacart grocery deliverers, and more could not exist as we know them. There are roughly 10.6 million independent contractors in the US, accounting for 6.9 percent of all employment. Some of these workers might not be affected by the law and some others may get hired on as full-time as a result. But there’s little doubt that millions more would find themselves unemployed.“The Democrats Just Reintroduced a Labor Law that Would Destroy Uber—And It Could Actually Pass This Time” Economic Policy Journal, February 9, 2021
Again, it doesn’t matter if you’re for all of this, or against it. Remember: It is – what it is. And all any business leader can do is try to find how, or if, they can work through it. Period, full stop.
In regards to this, as I said on my latest show: My original modeling (both the old and new/improved version I was developing) for both the website, as well as the MYTR Broadcast – is dead. i.e., it doesn’t work. As I’ll now explain…
To promote my offerings, I was about to go back onto the speaking circuit. As I described last year I was already in talks to speak at a few events that are very large (i.e., thousands in attendance at each). Then, COVID. Need I say more? Same went for other types of promotional platforms. Social media? Forgettaboutit!
I was already in discussions (let alone already spending money) to utilize social in ways I thought might be beneficial when suddenly the axing of Parler™ took place in a way that should give anyone pause. Then, over the last two weeks alone, Twitter™, Facebook™, YouTube™ and others have jettisoned content and outlets at apace that’s quite startling, both in whom and in size.
Here’s just one…
A YouTube channel hosted by a woman demonstrating how to help other mothers put their baby to sleep having some 1.5 MILLION subscribers was doxxed and basically demonetized, because? It was found she voted for Trump.
This is the age we’re living in.
These aren’t isolated incidents. Again, it doesn’t matter if you’re on the right, left, center, whatever. If you’re using social media? You’re a target. So just how (or more importantly: why?) do you go about doing what I do in this environment? Hint – you can’t. At least, not in the way I had possibly envisioned, let alone, actually started spending money on. It’s now all on hold and re-evaluate.
To reiterate, even though I don’t do politics, it doesn’t matter. Just using the name of the former president as I did in the paragraph above will bring about hate mail and more saying “You must be…” Or, if I’m talking about business and what a tax or wage hike might mean to business, like in the paragraph further above? I’m told the email box begins to fill with the requisite “You filthy evil capitalist pig you need to…” Trust me, it’s the reason why I don’t do comments. It’s literally insane. And it’s getting worse, much worse.
To make my point further, I told subscribers not that long ago that when one of my latest articles went viral, truly viral, with verifiable metrics to back up such claims, metrics that would be “to die for” by anyone looking for traction to gain higher ranking in a Google® search. For me? It all but got me wiped off the page in another bout of shadow-banning.
When others say “You should get a Wikipedia™ page!” and I retort “I tried, then they (Wikipedia editors) deleted it.” The reaction every-time is, “Wait…What?! I’ve never heard of that.”
Yeah, I know, I hear that a lot.
So now let’s talk “markets” aka Wall Street. Or, should I say – maybe let’s not. Because all that needs to be said, I’ve already said. It’s just now everyone is catching up, and those that haven’t already don’t want to hear anything to burst their bubble. I.e., The “markets” are rigged, you’re just playing high stakes casino games. Best of luck.
I could list article after article, or quote television or radio newscasts of those in the mainstream business/financial media that are suddenly shocked (shocked!) to find that maybe, just maybe, there are no real valuations or fundamental relationships to where prices of stocks are. Or, said differently: That it could, possibly, all be just narrative and momentum chasing funded via central bank largess. (Ya, think!)
Tesla™ nearly $900 a share, makes no money except for selling government credits, has less than 1% market share, and yet, is larger in market cap than just about all automakers globally – combined.
Or, Bitcoin™, one day it’s up $10K, next it’s down the same, if not more and vice versa. Why?
“The fundamentals!” I hear.
“Sounds just fantastic!” I say.
So, when I inquire further, like “What made it worth $45K yesterday and $35K today? You know, fundamentally speaking?” The response usually goes something like “You just don’t get it!”
“All righty then!” I’ll say internally, as I look to change the subject, because arguing or discussing anything further is a lesson in futility. Yet, that still begs the “fundamental” question, unanswered, like: When it’s tanking out-of-the-blue like it has so often. At what level do you buy more? And/or at what level do you take profits? You know, “fundamentally” thinking?
___________________ (insert crickets chirping here, along with blank stare)
No one knows because there is no true answer. It’s all narrative and momentum. Yet, it is because of this trait that it is so dangerous, for it doesn’t matter about the upside – it’s about the other. e.g., downside. And how to protect oneself. That’s truly all that matters.
And yet, in today’s world? “You just don’t get it!” is all I hear, even though I’m the only one on record, twice, to correctly call Bitcoin’s year end valuation, or devaluation if you prefer. Again, amidst all the so-called “smart-crowds” calls for the exact opposite, But, then again, as I say “What do I know.” Right?
The issue with every bubble (and, in my opinion, Bitcoin is a speculative bubbly-icious bubble) is narrative and momentum have no fundamental stability. Meaning – when a price is dropping there’s no guarantee (or fundamental reason) that people will re-invest, let alone, new buyers. Narrative and momentum are the equivalent of grasping smoke. This is what happens with all bubbles throughout history. Repeat – all.
But no one wants to hear it. And personally, I’m done trying. I’ve made my own call for what I think will happen (once again) by year end, but we’ll just have to wait and see till then. And personally, I could care less.
So let’s add up a few things from here…
Q: Business and financial commentary about facts, not fiction?
A: Nobody cares. Although, outlets like CNBC™, Bloomberg™, Fox Business™ and others are still parading the “unicorn circus” aka “next in rotation fund managers” and let’s not forget about the resident clown, buzzer banger leading the parade. And still nobody watches. Unless you’re part of the “WallStreetBets” brigade, then you do watch – to then laugh and mock them. But I digress.
Q: Business insights for small business owners or others?
A: Far too many are consumed (and rightly so) with just getting through the day, never-mind, thinking about tomorrow and what to do with it.
Q: Go out on the speaking circuit or host a program built for “drive-time” type audience of on-the-go entrepreneurs and business and/or salespeople?
A: What is this thing you speak of called “drive time” or “go to an event?”
See how this is adding up? Or, Let me do the math for you. e.g., “Not too good.”
So now you know where I am and where the website/MYTR and more currently reside. I, just like many of you, currently reside in “Limboland.” For everything I thought I was going to do, would now not only not work, but rather, could be even more frustrating and detrimental.
Sometimes, the best thing to do in times like these, even if it goes against everything you think you know, is to take a deep breath – come to a full stop, if you can, and re-evaluate anything and everything. No matter what or if there are any sunk costs.
That’s where I am, and that’s where the site and broadcast currently reside.
So, with all the above said, let me also say this…
The site and broadcast are far from “dead.” I’m just re-evaluating everything, And by everything, I mean just that – everything.
I’ll still be posting thoughts and doing what I call “Special Report” type audio. But the frequency is not on any set schedule. It will be sporadic at times, but that’s the only way it can be until I figure out just where and how we’re going forward.
Believe me when I tell you, no one is more frustrated currently than yours truly. But these are extraordinary times that will require extraordinary measures to figure them out. But that’s what I’m doing and I know you are also.
As I’ve always said since the beginning: I use myself as the example. So, if I were to come here and do the “Rah, rah, rah…” type of bull crap that most so-called “thought” or “business leaders” do, it would ring hollow, because that’s precisely what it would be.
What I will say though, in closing, is this…
It is precisely these types of circumstances that create the greatest opportunities.
However, as that other saying goes, “Be careful what you wish for!” Because the circumstance to deliver what you desire might just be the circumstance that’ll try one’s soul.
“May one live in interesting times,” indeed.
(You know that’s actually an ancient Chinese curse, right?)
© 2021 Mark St.Cyr